UNLV’s Moses Wood, center, celebrates with teammates after UNLV beat Utah State, 59-56, at the Thomas & Mack Center Monday Jan. 25, 2021. Wood came up with the game-sealing play, blocking a potential tying 3-point shot at the buzzer to preserve UNLV’s lead.
Thursday, Jan. 28, 2021 | 2 a.m.
UNLV’s men’s basketball squad is entering the stretch run, with the first of its 10 final games scheduled for January 31 at UNR. It’s been a trying campaign for the scarlet and gray—including a three-week pause after a coronavirus outbreak and a struggle to get above .500—but a lot can happen over the final month of the regular season. Here’s what we think will happen over those final 10 games.
1. Nick Blake will start. Blake, the highest-rated prospect in the team’s large freshman class, has been living up to expectations—and in many ways exceeding them. He has shown a natural scoring touch (8.3 points per game, 37.1% from 3-point range) off the bench, and teammates have extolled his poise on the floor. It’s only a matter of time before coach T.J. Otzelberger promotes Blake from sixth man to starting point guard.
2. Bryce Hamilton will score 20 points per game. It’s not easy to average 20 points per game, but Hamilton has a great shot at it this year; the junior guard currently sits at 20.3 points. Hamilton has already had games of 27, 27 and 28 points. He’ll post a few like that and finish the season as UNLV’s first 20-points-per-game scorer since Marcus Banks way back in 2002-03.
3. Moses Wood will start. Wood’s role is set to expand over the final 10 games. The 6-foot-8 forward is up to 37% from 3-point range, and that floor-stretching ability is something UNLV could really use in the frontcourt.
4. David Jenkins will move to the bench. The biggest surprise this season has been UNLV’s inability to figure out Jenkins. He played previously under Otzelberger at South Dakota State—and played well—so most assumed a smooth transition. It hasn’t worked out that way. When Blake moves to the starting lineup, Jenkins will assume the sixth-man role, where he can come off the bench and shoot to his heart’s content in short bursts.
5. UNLV will re-embrace a four-guard lineup. We saw UNLV go small at the end of last season—with spectacular results—and this roster looks to be headed in that direction, too. The crystal ball suggests a lineup with Hamilton, Blake, Jenkins and Caleb Grill in the “backcourt” with Wood or Mbacke Diong at center.
6. The end of the bench will have to wait. The time for developing young players has passed—it’s now time to win, and UNLV’s rotation is more likely to shrink than to expand. Youngsters who haven’t yet cracked the rotation will have to wait until the offseason to make their case for playing time going forward.
7. Defense will continue to struggle. On the season, 45.7% of opponents’ shots come from beyond the 3-point line. Only 10 teams allow a higher rate, which indicates how porous the perimeter defense has been. If UNLV is going to win games, it’s going to be via shootout.
8. UNLV will go 6-4. The back half of the schedule isn’t formidable. UNLV will have a tough time taking a game off Boise State, but the rest of the matchups (at UNR, vs. Air Force, at San Jose State, vs. Fresno State) aren’t so difficult. UNLV should be able split with UNR and Air Force, sweep San Jose State and Fresno State, and head into the Mountain West Conference tournament with momentum.
9. Makeup games won’t happen. The Mountain West left 11 days of lag time between the end of the regular season and the start of the conference tournament for “makeup” games, but don’t expect those contests to be played (not all of them, anyway). When the season ends, the MWC will say, “That’s good enough,” and go right into the tournament.
10. Mbacke will be back. Senior center Mbacke Diong—the first four-year player to graduate from UNLV since Carlos Lopez-Sosa (2010-14)—will take advantage of the NCAA’s COVID-19 exemption and return to UNLV for another year in 2021-22.
This story appeared in Las Vegas Weekly.
