Playoff preview? Golden Knights head to Colorado for series with Avalanche

By Justin Emerson

Thursday, March 25, 2021 | 2 a.m.

The last time the Golden Knights played the Avalanche, it was in a series that included a game at Lake Tahoe and all the national attention that comes when two of the best teams in the NHL meet.

Expect the same this week when Vegas takes on the Avalanche for a two-game series starting tonight at 6 p.m. at Ball Arena in Denver. With the Golden Knights and Avalanche in first and second place of the West Division, whoever wins this series could be sitting on top when the weekend is over.

“It’s so close in the standings that even if you’re a couple points behind you just need a few wins,” Vegas forward William Carrier said. “From here it’s downhill. Every game is like a playoff.”

There’s a lot of similarities between the Golden Knights and Avalanche. 

The Golden Knights have won six of their last seven, and the Avalanche just ended a seven-game winning streak that reminded the league just how dangerous they can be after a pedestrian start to the season.

The teams have the second and third best goal differentials in the league — Colorado is plus-35 and Vegas is plus-33, behind only Tampa Bay’s plus-43.

They’re also simply the two best teams in the West Division. Before the season started, many people projected the top four of the division just how it is now — Minnesota is outperforming expectations and St. Louis slightly underperforming, but the teams at the top are no surprise to anyone paying attention.

“You look at their game and their analytics and their depth chart and there’s not a ton of holes there, and they’re playing really well right now,” Vegas coach Pete DeBoer said. “This is a great test for us.”

About those analytics. 

The Avalanche have generated 61.8 expected goals and given up 44.4 at 5-on-5, according to advanced stats site Natural Stat Trick. That’s a 58.7% clip, nearly 4% higher than second-place Montreal.

Expected goals is one of the better stats both to tabulate past success and to determine if it’s sustainable. What it says is the Avalanche do a great job of generating both a quantity and quality of shot, and suppressing both at the other end.

If advanced stats aren’t your thing, Colorado leads the league in shots per game (35.3) and shots allowed per game (25.2) and is second in the league in goals scored per game (3.4) and third in goals allowed per game (2.3).

For comparison, Vegas is 10th in expected goals (52.3%), eighth in shots (31.2), fourth in shots allowed (27.3), sixth in goals per game (3.4) and second in goals allowed (2.2).

“We’re going to prepare just like any other game,” Vegas defenseman Nicolas Hague said. “Games are obviously going to get more and more important down the stretch here, especially in the second half of the year, so we have to make sure that we’re feeling good and come out with the effort that we need. We’ll be ready.”

Perhaps the Wild or Blues will surge in the second half of the season and pass the top teams in the West, but barring that the Golden Knights and Avalanche, in some order, are likely to finish first and second in the division. 

If they both win their playoff series, they’d face each other in the second round, with a trip to the final four on the line.

And we have an idea of what a playoff series between these teams would look like. We saw it earlier this year when they played four in a row and split the set — it’ll be thrilling, high-intensity, low-mistake hockey that will only be ramped up with the stakes.

“I think we know exactly what we’re dealing with,” DeBoer said. “We’ve got the opportunity to feel each other out and the next four against these guys I think are going to be really interesting.”