Las Vegas Sun

March 18, 2024

Get these preseason college football bets in before the value vanishes

CJ Stroud for Heisman

ASSOCIATED PRESS

Ohio State quarterback C.J. Stroud plays against Michigan State during an NCAA college football game Saturday, Nov. 20, 2021, in Columbus, Ohio.

College football begins in less than a month, and the betting odds have reacted accordingly. Markets are tightening into place as more money comes in ahead of the opening set of games on Saturday, August 27, with the first full schedule on tap for the following weekend. A lot of value has already left the betting board in the most popularly bet futures options, so there’s no time to waste.

In this same space a year ago, we cashed a 10-to-1 ticket on Georgia to win the College Football Playoff, along with a handful of other payouts. Let’s go for a repeat this year by looking for winners and breaking down the three biggest futures markets in college football: the College Football Playoff, Heisman Trophy and conference odds.

College Football Playoff

Georgia is coming off a dominant 14-1 season in which it outscored opponents by an average of more than 28 points per game, and yet bettors remain relatively bearish on the Bulldogs. At Caesars/William Hill sportsbooks, the largest operator in Nevada, Georgia ranks outside the top five in ticket count to win the national championship.

Alabama (9:5, or +180, to win the title), Ohio State (3-to-1), Texas A&M (20-to-1), USC (25-to-1) and LSU (65-to-1) are all ahead. That action has raised Georgia’s price to 4-to-1, where it’s worth a bet to go back-to-back.

There’s a gulf between college football’s top three this season—Georgia, Alabama and Ohio State—and everyone else. Bill Connelly’s SP+ ratings, for example, project all three teams as at least a touchdown better than each of the other 128 Football Bowl Subdivision programs on a neutral field.

Nearly every ratings system gives each of the Crimson Tide, Bulldogs and Buckeyes anywhere from a 25% to 35% chance to win the championship, with the only disagreement on what order they should rank. That translates to a minimum 3-to-1 odds, and Georgia is the only one of the three outside that range.

The public’s hesitance is understandable considering Georgia lost a record amount of defensive production, with five first-round picks in the 2022 NFL Draft. But coach Kirby Smart has recruited at a higher level than anyone in the nation on that side of the ball, with several more blue-chippers ready to step in.

The Bulldogs’ offense was also better than it’s being given credit, and it returns a lot, including quarterback Stetson Bennett III and potentially the best tight end group in college football history—including local Desert Pines High grad Darnell Washington.

BetMGM initially opened Ohio State at 6-to-1, which was an even better play, but that number is long gone. It’s not a bad strategy to try to find the fourth most likely playoff team for value—it’s easy to be tempted by the likes of Clemson at 14-to-1 or Notre Dame at 50-to-1—but it seems like a stretch that any team can really compete with this year’s Big Three.

Ohio State and Alabama might be worth betting mid-season if they surprisingly stumble to inflate their odds, but for now, Georgia is the only one in bettable territory.

Heisman Trophy

One thing that seems certain: Ohio State will have the best offense not only among the Big Three but in the entire nation. The Buckeyes averaged 7.8 yards per play a year ago, a half-yard better than anyone else, and return more than half of their starters.

That makes quarterback C.J. Stroud a deserved favorite at 2-to-1 to win the Heisman, but no one should bet a player at that low a price going into the season. The trophy hasn’t traditionally gone to the player with the lowest odds; in the past 10 years, Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota (2014) was the only preseason favorite who went on to win the award.

Voters tend to reward the more surprising candidates, and Stroud has two of those alongside him as teammates—running back TreVeyon Henderson (50-to-1 at Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook) and wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba (60-to-1 at Boyd Sports). Quarterbacks have won the Heisman eight of the past 10 years, but there’s been some recent blowback to that trend.

Two years ago, Alabama wide receiver DeVonta Smith edged his own quarterback, Mac Jones. Last year, cases were mounted for several less-deserving skill players before Alabama quarterback Bryce Young pulled away.

It’s hard to see Henderson and Smith-Njigba not putting together deserving cases. Henderson averaged nearly 7.5 yards per touch last year as a freshman and will be the focal point of the Buckeyes’ offense this year. Smith-Njigba, meanwhile, became a household name with an obscene stat line of 15 catches for 347 yards and three touchdowns in a January victory against Utah in the Rose Bowl.

It’s never a bad idea to back quarterbacks, but look further down the board instead of paying a premium for Stroud or Young (3-to-1). Clemson might present a unique opportunity: Quarterback D.J. Uiagalelei is 80-to-1 at the SuperBook, more than 13 times higher than his 6-to-1 price going into last year.

Uiaglelei struggled as a first-year starter last season, but if he bounces back, Clemson has the pieces around him to re-establish itself at the top of the sport. And, for insurance purposes, Uiagalelei’s presumed backup, Cade Klubnik, the nation’s top freshman quarterback recruit, is worth a small play at 150-to-1 at Boyd in case he wins the job in training camp.

Conferences

Odds to win the Power Five conferences are beaten into place by now, but a lot of value still exists diving down into the Group of Five “mid-majors.”

Toledo and Fresno State, for instance, should be clear favorites, instead of bunched together at the top in the Mid-American Conference and Mountain West Conference, respectively.

Fresno State, 3-to-1 at Circa Sports, has the MWC’s best roster, led by quarterback Jake Haener, and gets to play in the much-weaker West Division, apart from Boise State, Air Force and defending champion Utah State. The MAC usually produces a surprise winner, but Toledo, 7-to-2 at Circa, has a major talent edge over everyone else this season.

For a better payout, consider SMU at 12-to-1 to win the American Athletic Conference at Caesars/William Hill. New coach Rhett Lashlee kept mostly intact a Mustangs roster that last year nearly got to the conference championship game— including standout quarterback Tanner Mordecai.

Look to Conference USA for a chance to back the longest shots. It’s wide open, with defending champion UTSA benefiting from a great deal of good luck last year and first-rate UAB coach Bill Clark abruptly retiring for health reasons in June.

Louisiana Tech and North Texas, both 30-to-1 at the SuperBook, are headed in the right direction and not as far back from the contenders as the odds imply.

This story originally appeared in Las Vegas Weekly.