Adrian Kraus / Associated Press
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) runs the ball during the first half of an NFL wild-card playoff football game against the New England Patriots, Saturday, Jan. 15, 2022, in Orchard Park, N.Y. (AP Photo/Adrian Kraus)
Thursday, Aug. 18, 2022 | 2 a.m.
An old gambling truism indicates that some of the hardest bets to make are the best bets to make. Rarely has that felt truer than going into the upcoming NFL season.
The movement of star players across the league in the offseason has evened out the landscape and bunched teams together in terms of overall strength, perhaps more than ever before. It has arguably left many of the most popular and successful teams overvalued, and many of the worst and often-overlooked sides undervalued.
After searching for the best odds in town, here are six regular-season win total bets—three overs and three unders—that illustrate the trend.
Buffalo Bills under 11.5 wins at +125 (i.e. risking $100 to win $125) (STN Sports)
• Why it’s an uncomfortable bet to make:The Bills are the consensus Super Bowl favorite and might be the one team in the NFL without a discernible weakness.
• Why it’s a valuable bet to make: Everyone remembers the way the Bills played in last year’s postseason, decimating the rival Patriots 47-17 and then taking the lead on the road against the Chiefs with 13 seconds remaining before ultimately falling 42-36 in overtime. But folks are conveniently forgetting a midseason swoon that saw the Bills lose 9-6 to the NFL-worst Jaguars and get blown out 41-15 at home against the Colts two weeks later. Buffalo was an extremely high-variance team week-to-week, and that was against one of the NFL’s weakest schedules. This year, the Bills instead face one of the NFL’s toughest schedules.
Cincinnati Bengals under 9.5 wins at +110 (Caesars/William Hill)
• Why it’s an uncomfortable bet to make:Cincinnati might be considered the coolest team in the league, with a young pair of stars in quarterback Joe Burrow and wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase, who led the franchise to its first Super Bowl berth in 33 years last season.
• Why it’s a valuable bet to make:Sure, the Bengals caught fire in the AFC playoffs last year, but they didn’t do in a sustainable way. They won the three games to reach the Super Bowl by a total of 13 points after benefiting from a +5 turnover margin. They also profited greatly from a swath of injuries and COVID-19 absences to the division rival Ravens and Browns. Burrow and Chase are electric, but there are still questions about coach Zac Taylor, who routinely makes decisions that adversely affect his team’s in-game win probability and was on the hot seat as recently as midseason last year.
Detroit Lions over 6.5 wins at -120 (i.e. risking $120 to win $100) (BetMGM)
• Why it’s an uncomfortable bet to make:The Lions have been one of the worst, if not the single worst, franchise in the NFL and have gone under their win total most seasons dating back 31 years, to when they last won a playoff game.
• Why it’s a valuable bet to make: It’s difficult to get excited about mediocre quarterback Jared Goff, but Detroit quietly has young, high-level talent all over the rest of its roster, including rookie No. 2 overall pick edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson. The Lions were much better than their 3-13-1 record a year ago, when they lost a handful of games in baffling ways in the final seconds. Coach Dan Campbell is a target for much ridicule because of his fiery demeanor, but he’s not the dumb jock many paint him as. He actually made quite smart in-game decisions, giving the Lions an edge that should pay off in his second year.
Houston Texans over 4.5 wins at even money (STN Sports)
• Why it’s an uncomfortable bet to make:The Texans are widely considered the worst team in the league coming off back-to-back four-win seasons in which they fielded a team that lacked NFL-caliber talent in some position groups.
• Why it’s a valuable bet to make:They don’t lack NFL talent in any position group anymore after being relatively aggressive signing veterans in free agency and using nine picks in the NFL Draft, including five in the first three rounds. Without much fanfare, quarterback Davis Mills got much better as his rookie season went on and could make a second-year leap. Lovie Smith was far from an inspiring choice as the Texans’ new coach, but the well-traveled veteran won’t be as overmatched as last year’s first-timer, David Culley. The AFC South once again looks like the weakest division in football, leaving the Texans with a more-than-manageable schedule.
Los Angeles Rams under 10.5 wins at even money (STN Sports)
• Why it’s an uncomfortable bet to make: The Rams won the Super Bowl and brought almost everyone back in an attempt to repeat.
• Why it’s a valuable bet to make: Los Angeles’ roster is extremely top heavy for the second straight year. It worked out last season, when the Rams were one of the least-injured teams in the league. That’s highly unlikely to happen again, especially considering the Rams have one of the NFL’s oldest rosters. The red flags are already rising, with the Rams confirming reports that quarterback Matthew Stafford is dealing with an elbow injury in his throwing arm. Stafford is one of several players the Rams can’t afford to lose for any significant portion of time. They don’t have the depth of their competitors at the top of the NFL.
New Orleans Saints over 8.5 wins at even money (BetMGM)
• Why it’s an uncomfortable bet to make: The Saints’ offense has kept the team afloat for 15 years, but the architect and the driving force of that attack—coach Sean Payton and quarterback Drew Brees, respectively—have now walked away in successive seasons.
• Why it’s a valuable bet to make:The defense is loaded with game-changing players like edge rusher Cameron Jordan and safety Tyrann Mathieu, and looks ready to establish itself as the identity of the team under new, defensive-minded coach Dennis Allen. The offense should be formidable, too: Quarterback Jameis Winston was playing at a high level before tearing his ACL early last season. New Orleans should also benefit from the return of star receiver Michael Thomas, who missed all of last season, when the Saints were the second-most injured team in the league behind the Ravens.
This story originally appeared in Las Vegas Weekly.
