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March 28, 2024

It all comes down to this: Next two games are Raiders’ biggest since relocating

Colts, Chargers are all that separate Raiders from first playoff berth since 2016

Raiders vs Eagles

Wade Vandervort

Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Derek Carr (4) smiles at fans as he walks off the field after defeating the Philadelphia Eagles, 33-22, during an NFL football game at Allegiant Stadium Sunday, Oct. 24, 2021.

The Raiders haven’t pieced together a four-game winning streak in five years. What a time now would make to break the drought.

Las Vegas is two victories away from doing it to end the regular season, two victories away from reaching its foremost preseason goal of getting to the playoffs.

It needs to beat the Colts in a 10 a.m. kickoff on the road Sunday and then knock off the Chargers at home in Week 18 to have a shot at the franchise’s first postseason win since 2002. After a season full of the players maintaining the usual line of not paying attention to where they sit in the playoff picture, they’re now acutely aware.  

“You feel the tension, sense of urgency at practice,” running back Josh Jacobs said. “You see guys paying attention and things like that. You can tell the guys want it.”

The tension should be there because what happens over the next two weekends will have far-reaching implications on the future of the franchise. Former coach Jon Gruden, before his inglorious resignation in early October, may not have been in a playoff-or-bust situation this year; interim coach Rich Bisaccia almost certainly is.

General manager Mike Mayock’s future may be directly tied to Bisaccia’s. There’s just as much uncertainty around Derek Carr as he enters this final year of his contract next year, typically a spot where a team either extends its quarterback or lets him go.

And, if the Raiders let Carr go after eight years without another star veteran lined up to take his place, another full rebuild would likely commence.

All of these changes appeared to be set into motion after the Raiders suffered the worst loss to the Chiefs in the series' history less than a month ago, their fifth defeat in six games. But they’ve somewhat improbably battled back since then, beating the Browns and Broncos to get halfway through the four straight wins requirement.

“I don’t think any of these guys have blinked,” Bisaccia said. “I think we’ve all gone through the storm together when it’s been bad, and I think we’ve all held the line when it’s been good and kind of try to get on the next-day mentality and the ability to improve each day.”

Yes, the Raiders have caught some breaks the last two weeks — notably in facing two backup quarterbacks because of COVID-19 and injury. Considering they only beat the Nick Mullens-led Browns and Drew Lock-led Broncos by six points, it’s tempting to say they never get to this point under normal circumstances.

But that’s also an oversimplification, because statistically, Las Vegas outperformed both teams far beyond what the final scores indicated largely because it had to overcome a combined -5 turnover margin.

The Raiders could get lucky and face another backup quarterback, Sam Ehlinger, against the Colts with Carson Wentz currently on the COVID-19 list. Rumblings are that Wentz will be eligible with the NFL’s diminished five-day quarantine window, however, and they’re reflected in the betting line.

Las Vegas is currently a 7-point underdog in Indianapolis. Combined with sitting as a 2-point favorite to a Chargers’ team that already beat them earlier this year next week, sports books’ implied probability of the Raiders winning both games and making the playoffs is 13%.

Their chances are slightly more optimistic by advanced statistical models like Football Outsiders and FiveThirtyEight — ranging from around 15% to around 25%.

“The fact of the matter is that we have two games left against two really good football teams and we need to win them,” Carr said. “And if we do and we can get in, I think that would be pretty remarkable. I think that would be pretty amazing.”

No one said reaching the postseason was going to be easy, but no one said it was going to be as hard as it’s been for the Raiders this season either. Unexpectedly losing a head coach after five weeks would have been the biggest hardship for any other team, but it was only the start of the emotional challenges for the Raiders.

Within a month of the Gruden scandal, they went on to lose both of their first-round draft picks from 2020, Henry Ruggs and Damon Arnette, to separate transgressions, the former tragically costing a young woman her life.

A roughly 1-in-4 or 1-in-5 chance to prolong their season doesn’t sound so bad when considering how often the Raiders were written off in the aftermath of those events by so many people.  But, as Bisaccia alluded to, Las Vegas has weathered the storm better than perceived.

Carr says that’s partly because the team has implemented a “nobody cares” mindset, meaning there’s no sympathy for their hardships. They must get it done regardless.

But everyone should care what happens in these final two games. Not only will it determine whether this season’s team can reach its goals, but also quite possibly how the organization moves forward for years to come.

“Despite all the adversity to be able to still stare your goals in the face and have an opportunity to obtain them, it’s pretty cool, not going to lie,” Carr said.  

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or

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