Kriston Jae Bethel / New York Times
President Joe Biden campaigns for state Attorney General Josh Shapiro, then the Democratic candidate for governor, and Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, then the Democratic candidate for the Senate, in Philadelphia on Nov. 5, 2022. Shapiro and Fetterman both defeated their Republican opponents. Now that a crisis has been averted for the 2022 election, Democrats shift their eyes to 2024, as both party and president consider whether Biden should run again.
Tuesday, Nov. 29, 2022 | 2 a.m.
Expecting a cataclysmic midterm election, many Democrats had been bracing for an end-of-year reckoning with whether President Joe Biden, who once declared himself a “bridge” to a new generation, should give way to a new 2024 standard-bearer.
But the stronger-than-expected Democratic showing has taken the pressure off.
And Donald Trump’s decision to announce a run for president again, and the Republican backlash against him, have abruptly quieted Democrats’ public expressions of anxiety over Biden’s poor approval ratings, while reminding them of Biden’s past success over Trump.
Now, as Biden mulls a decision over whether to seek a second term, interviews with more than two dozen Democratic elected officials and strategists suggest that, whatever misgivings some Democrats may harbor about another Biden candidacy, his party is more inclined for now to defer to him than to try to force a frontal clash with a sitting president.
In recent days, officials ranging from Rep. Henry Cuellar, one of the most conservative House Democrats, to Rep. Pramila Jayapal, chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, have said they would support another Biden bid.
In private conversations, younger Democratic operatives have shifted from discussing potential job opportunities in a competitive presidential primary to gaming out what a Biden reelection campaign might look like. And a variety of lawmakers have lauded Biden for the party’s history-defying midterm performance, crediting him with the major legislative accomplishments they were able to run on and with pressing a message that cast Republican candidates as extremists who threatened democracy.
Already, Biden appears to be improving Democrats’ confidence in him: A recent USA Today/Ipsos poll found that 71% of Democrats surveyed believe he could win in 2024, up from 60% who said the same in August, although they were evenly divided on whether he should be the 2024 nominee.
The concerns about Biden’s overall weak standing in public opinion polls — which was a burden for many Democratic candidates — have not dissipated entirely. And some Democrats say that the challenges confronting the 80-year-old president and his party should not be glossed over in the party’s relief over the outcome of the elections.
Stanley B. Greenberg, a veteran Democratic pollster, pointed to a postelection survey that highlighted Democratic vulnerabilities. The poll, conducted by the organization Greenberg helped found, warned of “the continuing risk of a Republican challenge centered on borders and crime.” It determined that “Trump may have been weakened in this election, but another leader with that message” poses “an accelerated risk.”
In an interview, Greenberg said he came away from the survey “believing Democrats have huge issues to address.” While “President Biden has done remarkable things,” he added, “I think we need a new voice to address huge challenges but also huge opportunities.”
Surveys of voters leaving the polls found that two-thirds, including nearly one-third of Democrats, said they did not want Biden to run for president again — although Biden’s allies have noted those numbers are not predictive of how voters would respond when presented with a choice between the president and a Republican candidate. At a postelection news conference, Biden insisted that those poll ratings would not affect his decision. He has said that he intends to run but planned to discuss the race with his family over the holidays and could announce a decision early next year.
David Axelrod, who served as chief strategist for President Barack Obama, said the midterm elections had given Biden “a little giddyup in his step.” As for a run for a second term, Axelrod said, “If he were 60 and not 80, there would be absolutely no doubt.”
Democrats eager for Biden to make way for a new cohort of presidential aspirants pointed to the decision by Speaker Nancy Pelosi, 82, to step down as the House Democratic leader.
Shelia Huggins of North Carolina, a member of the Democratic National Committee, said the country was “looking at what the future looks like, especially with the speaker deciding that now is the time for her to step away and to give other people an opportunity.”
Huggins, who has been open about her reservations regarding Biden, praised the president’s record but added, “I just still have some concerns about him running again. Part of it does have to do with his age.”
Quinton Lucas, the mayor of Kansas City, Missouri, said he wanted Biden to run again and was not bothered by his age. But he also said that the next Democratic nominee should be ready to run against candidates other than Trump, who is 76, as Republicans weigh an array of younger potential contenders.
“The party needs to be prepared for a Ron DeSantis, next-generation Republican,” Lucas said. “President Biden, in his record of experience, and really his more recent successes, is able to handle that. But I think that’s what the American people will be looking at.”
Republicans have long made issues of Biden’s age and verbal missteps, and polls show that plenty of Democrats, too, have reservations about Biden’s age.
“Most people in this country don’t know many 80-year-olds that can run the entire country,” said Tyler Jones, a Democratic strategist in South Carolina. “That’s not to say that they don’t exist, and it’s not to say that he can’t do it, but it is a very rare thing. And so the burden, unlike most presidents, the burden is on Biden to show the country that he can not just win in ’24, but lead for the next four years.”
Jones said it would be “foolish and counterproductive” not to have a serious conversation in the party about the strengths and weaknesses of a Biden candidacy.
But there is no doubt that Biden would have a significant edge should he run again, the kind of advantage that a man who sought the presidency for decades might resist giving up. It is rare for an incumbent president to lose reelection — or, in recent years, to face a major primary threat — and the Democratic National Committee has already laid groundwork to support Biden in 2024, preparing to take on a variety of Republican candidates. Biden’s political advisers have also been ramping up outreach to his early backers, and his team has scheduled a gathering for major supporters and key party figures to discuss the administration’s agenda Dec. 15 at the White House.
Asked about concerns some Americans have about Biden’s age, Andrew Bates, a White House spokesperson, said Biden had the “most successful legislative record of any president since Lyndon Johnson,” citing achievements on infrastructure and gun policy. He extolled Biden’s record on the world stage and his political strengths.
“The same coalition President Biden built to expand the map for Democrats in 2020 powered our historic midterm wins, including unprecedented youth turnout,” Bates said. “The president galvanized independent voters with a message widely adopted across the party, highlighting the differences between his values and ultra-MAGA Republicans’ agenda.”
Regardless of the next Republican nominee’s age, some Democrats suggest the GOP is vulnerable to the same challenges that drove major defeats this year.
“Republicans failed in a year when they should have been hugely successful,” said Gov. J.B. Pritzker of Illinois. “People have rejected the anti-little ‘d’ democratic values that they have run on.”
Others argue that it would be possible to support Biden if he runs while also backing generational change in the party.
Jane Kleeb, chair of the Nebraska Democratic Party, stressed her hope that, overall, “batons are beginning to be passed.” But she also said she would support another Biden campaign.
“It doesn’t have to be all or nothing,” she said.
While a left-leaning advocacy group has already launched a “Don’t Run Joe” campaign to urge Biden to step aside, few Democrats expect, at this point, that he would draw a major primary challenge. But if he does not run, some Democrats think the size of the field could resemble that of 2020, which swelled to nearly 30 candidates.
Some of them, including Vice President Kamala Harris, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, Sen. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota and Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, are often mentioned in political circles as potential contenders if Biden does not run. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, 81, who maintains a devoted following on the left, has not ruled out a bid if Biden opts out. Several of them campaigned for candidates in battleground states this year, fostering relationships that could prove useful in the future.
There is also a crop of Democratic governors, many of whom have stressed their support for Biden, who have raised their national profiles this year, including Pritzker, Gavin Newsom of California and Phil Murphy of New Jersey, chair of the National Governors Association. Gov. Roy Cooper of North Carolina has also attracted attention as chair of the Democratic Governors Association.
Other Democratic governors, including Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan and Jared Polis of Colorado, earned national notice as they won reelection by commanding margins.
“There are some great prospects who are considering running in the next election in which there is not an incumbent,” said Pritzker, a longtime Democratic donor who has supported many Democratic governors. “I think the president is running for reelection. So I think you’ll see Democrats supporting the president.”
Newsom recently made precisely that commitment to the White House, Politico reported, and said that he would not run even if Biden did not seek a second term.
Pritzker, for his part, said he intended to support Biden. He also noted that Chicago was vying to host the 2024 Democratic National Convention and said that he had “every intention of being governor of Illinois for the next four years.”
Other Democrats, including Rep. Ro Khanna of California, have worked to introduce themselves around the country. And some who won challenging races are already being discussed in “future of the party” conversations, a list that Sen. Raphael Warnock of Georgia could join if he wins reelection in his runoff next month.
“There’s too much talent and too much ambition in our party to think it’s going to be a coronation,” Jones said of the 2024 presidential election.
Still, he added, “Ultimately, they’re waiting to see what the president is going to do.”
This article originally appeared in The New York Times.
