Case Keefer

Blog Post Archive

Vegas-style college football preview: Pac-12 at the sports book

Thursday, Aug. 1, 2013

When the Pac-10 extended hastily accepted invitations to Utah and Colorado for the 2011 college football season, many hailed it as the dawning of the age of “super conferences.”

Vegas-style college football preview: Mountain West at the sports books

Wednesday, July 24, 2013

The never-ending footrace between Boise State and bookmakers may feature a new leader for the first time in nearly two decades.
The popular narrative of non-BCS conference Boise State baffling the country with its run of sustained success once rang truest in Las Vegas.

Sports books favor Heat to win next year's NBA title but Clippers moving up

Monday, June 24, 2013

The Miami Heat’s championship parade drew to a close Monday in a fashion typical for these types of celebrations — with talk of next season.
The back-to-back NBA champions fielded questions about potentially pulling off the first three-peat in more than a decade next season. Las Vegas has answers, or at least valuable insight into the likelihood of it happening.

NBA Finals in Vegas: Sports book facts and figures on Heat comeback, Game 7

Thursday, June 20, 2013

The dramatic finish in Game 6 of the NBA Finals caused at least three different groups of people spread throughout the country in separate time zones to look foolish.
There were, of course, the much-ridiculed Miami fans who fled the American Airlines Arena exits early before their Heat sparked to win 103-100 in overtime. San Antonio supporters who flooded the Riverwalk anticipating a celebration before their Spurs dulled took their barbs, too.

NBA Finals in Vegas: Heat victory tonight could mean big business to sports books

Tuesday, June 18, 2013

Tonight marks the closest equivalent to Groundhog Day for local sports books. If the Miami Heat win to extend the NBA Finals to a Game 7, brightness in the form of money gets one last hurrah. Dim the lights around betting windows, though, if they lose.

NBA Finals in Vegas: Sports books took hit on Heat; zig-zag calls for Spurs tonight

Sunday, June 16, 2013

Sports book directors may have flopped to the floor harder than Chris Bosh as game four of the NBA Finals wound down.
Unlike the minor contact Tim Duncan made with Bosh, the Miami Heat actually inflicted pain on bookmakers. They cost Las Vegas books far more than the $5,000 the NBA fined Bosh for his embellishment, too.

NBA Finals in Vegas: Spurs a small favorite over Heat in series and Game 4

Thursday, June 13, 2013

Don’t make the same mistake some analysts made Tuesday night. Don’t pen the Miami Heat’s eulogy yet.
Despite an embarrassing 113-77 loss to San Antonio in Game 3 of the NBA Finals, Miami is a victory Thursday night away from regaining its status as the favorite in the series, according to Las Vegas odds.

NBA Finals in Vegas: What the odds say about home court format for Heat, Spurs

Tuesday, June 11, 2013

LeBron James has experienced both the supposed greatest benefit and biggest drawback to the NBA Finals’ 2-3-2 home court format over the past couple of years.
The Heat are now minus-175 (risking $1.75 to win $1) to win the series with the Spurs coming back at plus-155 (risking $1 to win $1.55).

NBA Finals in Vegas: Spurs now favored in series but history on Heat's side in game two

Sunday, June 9, 2013

Fans in San Antonio might as well crank Rihanna’s breakthrough single “Umbrella” and dust off those black and silver Robert Horry jerseys.
They should party like it’s June 2007, and not just because their Spurs are back in the NBA Finals for the first time since suppressing this very King (James) six years ago.

What you need to know about betting on the NBA Finals in Las Vegas

Thursday, June 6, 2013

According solely to future odds in Las Vegas sports books, Miami was 13 percent more likely to win the title before the just-concluded series with the Indiana Pacers ever began. The LVH Superbook had the Heat at minus-400 (risking $4 to win $1) to win the NBA title on May 20. Now they’re just minus-220. San Antonio’s numbers swayed the opposite direction, as it was plus-450 to end the season with a championship before a near pick’em Western Conference Finals series against the Memphis Grizzlies.

Oddsmakers like Orb's Triple Crown chances; Vegas picks for the Preakness

Saturday, May 18, 2013

Orb’s nose had barely crossed the finish line in the Kentucky Derby and the goop from the sloppy Churchill Downs track was still pelting the 19 horses and jockeys in the field when everyone started asking the perennial question.

NBA Playoffs in Las Vegas: Odds, picks and perspective from the sports book

Friday, May 10, 2013

Anyone who’s gambled on the Golden State Warriors throughout the 2013 NBA Playoffs might not be able to make it to the betting window before the team’s game against the San Antonio Spurs tonight. That’s because they’re likely drowning underneath a bathtub-sized mound of cash. Golden State has gone a perfect 8-0 against the spread in the postseason thus far.

Vegas odds and perspective on opening round of the NBA playoffs

Saturday, April 20, 2013

The NBA Playoffs aren’t as bereft of upsets as some have come to believe. The first round, which starts at noon today in New York, has played out with particular parity in recent years. At least two underdogs prevailed in the perceived nonvolatile best-of-seven series in each of the past four years.

NCAA Tournament by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of championship game

Monday, April 8, 2013

The favorites have more than risen to the occasion for college basketball’s ultimate prize. The team laying points in the final game has won eight of the past nine NCAA Tournaments straight-up and gone 7-2 against the spread.

NCAA Tournament by the odds: Vegas picks and props for the Final Four

Saturday, April 6, 2013

No matter the participants, this year’s National Championship game will be one of the most evenly matched in recent memory. For only the second time in the past five years, Monday’s final college basketball contest of the season is expected to feature a favorite of less than six points.

NCAA Tournament by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of Sunday's games

Saturday, March 30, 2013

If someone spent $100 parlaying Wichita State and Syracuse to make the Final Four, they would have earned a payout of $30,500.

NCAA Tournament by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of Saturday's games

Friday, March 29, 2013

Underdogs were the talk of the last two days, as they went 6-2 against the spread in this year’s Sweet 16. The only two favorites to cover were Duke at minus-2 over Michigan State and Wichita State at minus-4 against La Salle.

NCAA Tournament by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of the Sweet 16

Thursday, March 28, 2013

It’s time for the Sweet 16 in Las Vegas. Sports books have cleaned out bettors to this point of the NCAA Tournament, including anyone unfortunate enough to tail the picks on this blog.

Las Vegas sports book facts on the Miami Heat's historic winning streak

Wednesday, March 27, 2013

Oddsmakers give the Miami Heat a 25 percent chance of winning seven more straight games to break the NBA record for the longest winning streak. Find out what else Las Vegas makes of the Heat's historic run.

NCAA Tournament by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of Sunday's games

Saturday, March 23, 2013

And the beatings continued, until a couple of Bulldogs intervened. The unexpected happened early Saturday in the NCAA Tournament. The reign of favorites and blowouts extended for another six hours.

NCAA Tournament by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of Saturday's games

Friday, March 22, 2013

Through two full days of NCAA Tournament action in sports books, the suspense factor in Las Vegas has measured as tepid at best. Teams have covered at an average of 10.5 points per game.

NCAA Tournament by the odds: How sports books see the East Region

Wednesday, March 20, 2013

In the off chance that Las Vegas ever gets to host a portion of the NCAA Tournament, it would be most fitting to land a bracket like this year’s East Region. The Entertainment Capital of the World should serve as home to the Entertainment Region of the Tournament. Make no mistake, the East Region will provide by far the most cheap fun of March Madness in 2013.

NCAA Tournament by the odds: How sports books see the West Region

Wednesday, March 20, 2013

Case Keefer offers an in-depth look at the West Region of the NCAA Tournament, complete with odds and a discussion of the matchups.

NCAA Tournament by the odds: How sports books see the Midwest Region

Tuesday, March 19, 2013

Case Keefer offers an in-depth look at the Midwest Region of the NCAA Tournament, complete with odds and a discussion of the matchups.

NCAA Tournament by the odds: How sports books see the South Region

Tuesday, March 19, 2013

Case Keefer offers an in-depth look at the South Region of the NCAA Tournament, complete with odds and a discussion of the matchups.

Odds and picks for the remaining college basketball conference tournaments

Tuesday, March 12, 2013

A full list of conference-tournament future odds is provided along with picks for all the major events.

Complete odds for NASCAR weekend in Las Vegas: Dissecting the lines and props

Thursday, March 7, 2013

Jimmie Johnson holds most of the records when it comes to NASCAR’s annual Sprint Cup stop in Las Vegas. He surely knows about couple of them — the four victories and the $2.63 million in earnings — but has no clue to the Sin City-specific honor he could boast. Johnson has probably made sports books more money than any other driver since he first raced at Las Vegas Motor Speedway 11 years ago.

High School Basketball Picks: State Championship

Tuesday, Feb. 19, 2013

Las Vegas Sun sports reporters Ray Brewer and Case Keefer attempt to pick winners in high school basketball games each week.

High School Basketball Picks: Regional Playoffs Edition

Monday, Feb. 11, 2013

Las Vegas Sun sports reporters Ray Brewer and Case Keefer attempt to pick winners in high school basketball games each week.

Looking at Las Vegas sports books' future odds to win 2014 Super Bowl

Monday, Feb. 4, 2013

The last five Super Bowl champions have at least one major characteristic in common.
Las Vegas sports books opened all of their odds in the middle of the pack to hoist the Lombardi Trophy after the previous season’s Super Bowl. None of them were among the top-five favorites.

High School Basketball Picks: Entry 6

Monday, Feb. 4, 2013

Las Vegas Sun sports reporters Ray Brewer and Case Keefer attempt to pick winners in high school basketball games each week.

Super Bowl by the odds: Vegas perspective and pick against the spread

Friday, Feb. 1, 2013

I hate the Super Bowl. OK, admittedly, that’s over dramatic and not altogether accurate. I don’t truly dislike it, but out of the 267 NFL games, Sunday’s is one of my least favorites.

Complete list of Super Bowl prop wagers from the LVH Superbook

Monday, Jan. 28, 2013

Case Keefer posts the list of the LVH Superbook Super Bowl 47 proposition wagers, which includes hundreds of different ways to bet on the biggest game of the year.

High School Basketball Picks: Entry 5

Monday, Jan. 28, 2013

Las Vegas Sun sports reporters Ray Brewer and Case Keefer attempt to pick winners in high school basketball games each week.

NFL playoffs by the odds: Vegas picks and perspective on conference championships

Friday, Jan. 18, 2013

If any team is ever temporarily permitted to use the dreaded “no one believes in us” or “we get no respect” clichés, it’s the Atlanta Falcons right now.
Truth is very few people believe in the Falcons, especially within the confines of this fair city. Bettors have driven Atlanta up to 4-point underdogs at home in the NFC Championship Game against the San Francisco 49ers, which is the most points a No. 1 seed has ever taken in the playoffs excluding the Super Bowl.

NFL playoffs by the odds: Vegas picks and perspective on divisional round

Friday, Jan. 11, 2013

Sports book directors gave their best imitation of action-movie heroes last weekend. They found a graceful escape after what seemed like imminent danger.

As expected, Vegas favors Alabama to win another national championship next year

Tuesday, Jan. 8, 2013

With Alabama putting the finishing touches on its 42-14 blowout over Notre Dame in Monday night’s BCS National Championship, conversation in the broadcast booth inevitably changed from the game to next year’s college football season.
Commentators Brent Musburger and Kirk Herbstreit opined that Alabama would be the favorite to win its fourth title in five years. Vegas oddsmakers showed they were in agreement Tuesday afternoon.

High School Basketball Picks: Entry 3

Monday, Jan. 7, 2013

Las Vegas Sun sports reporters Ray Brewer and Case Keefer attempt to pick winners in high school basketball games each week.

Bowl Pick'em Against The Spread National Championship Entry

Saturday, Jan. 5, 2013

Clinging to a profitable clip of 55 percent against the spread, the success of this year’s bowl pick’em comes down to the final entry.
That’s the way it should be for the sake of suspense. While last year’s comfortable mark of 20-14-1 isn’t within reach, finishing off with three straight wins would get us awfully close.

NFL playoffs by the odds: Vegas picks and perspective on wild-card games

Friday, Jan. 4, 2013

Racecar drivers get a victory lap. Award winners get an acceptance speech.
So I felt inclined to get something out of my win in the first-ever Las Vegas Sun NFL handicapping contest, even after finishing with a solid-but-unspectacular 54-47-1 record against the spread. I somehow came up with a prize that involved work — making more picks.

Las Vegas sports book posts odds on every possible Super Bowl result

Friday, Jan. 4, 2013

As of now, before the NFL playoffs kick off, there are 72 different combinations for how the Super Bowl XLVII could play out. William Hill, which operates several sports books and betting kiosks throughout Las Vegas including at all PT’s Tavern’s, attached odds to every possible scenario and made it available for betting Thursday afternoon.

Bowl Pick'em Against the Spread Entry 6

Wednesday, Jan. 2, 2013

Casual bettors love loading up on BCS bowl games. It’s assumed the thrill of having money on the most important games draws wagering from fans who wouldn't normally place bets, causing the handle to rocket at local sports books at this time of year. But there might be another reason.

Bowl Pick'em Against The Spread Entry 5

Monday, Dec. 31, 2012

Handicapping bowl games takes a sharp turn at the intersection of the end of one year and the start of another.
While strategies like backing motivated teams and going against unstable programs remain important, the situations are less glaring and exploitable as the stakes rise and the games start to feature better teams.

Bowl Pick'em Against The Spread Entry 4

Saturday, Dec. 29, 2012

On the second and third days after Christmas, my sports book gave to me three bad beats and two humbling blowouts.
The last bowl pick’em entry went down as the lowest point since starting this series three years ago. The results wiped two weeks’ worth of work to get off to a promising start away.

Bowl Pick'em Against The Spread Entry 3

Thursday, Dec. 27, 2012

Entering a rapid stretch of 21 games in five days, bowl season is a quarter of the way complete.
It’s about to get tougher, however, as the next six games, specifically, presented several challenges.

Bowl Pick'em Against The Spread Entry 2

Thursday, Dec. 20, 2012

You might be a degenerate gambler if all you want for Christmas is to cash a few tickets on bowl games.
Let’s jump right into the next week’s worth of bowls with brief analysis and picks on every game.

High School Basketball Picks: Entry 2

Tuesday, Dec. 18, 2012

Las Vegas Sun sports reporters Ray Brewer and Case Keefer attempt to pick winners in high school basketball games each week.

Bowl Pick'em Against the Spread Entry 1

Thursday, Dec. 13, 2012

Case Keefer looks at every bowl game through the betting line and provides a pick.

High School Basketball Picks: Entry 1

Tuesday, Dec. 11, 2012

Las Vegas Sun sports reporters Ray Brewer and Case Keefer attempt to pick winners in high school basketball games each week.

College football by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of week 14

Friday, Nov. 30, 2012

The national championship race is down to three teams — Notre Dame, Alabama and Georgia — and none of them concern Las Vegas oddsmakers.
Sports books took no significant action on any of those teams to win the national championship in future bets before the season began.