Weekend wagers: Bets on the Kentucky Derby and seven other sports

By Case Keefer (contact)

Saturday, May 4, 2024 | 2 a.m.

For the first time in the four-year history of Weekend Wagers, the Kentucky Derby was a profitable endeavor last year.

In the 149^th Run for the Roses, the column made a grand total of …. $25.

Better than losing.

And I’ve lost a lot in the past, though I’m still waiting on my payout for a bet on Mandaloun to win in 2022. Mandaloun was eventually declared the winner but only after Medina Spirit’s victory was stripped for performance-enhancing drugs and bets were already paid out.

That’s pretty illustrative of the Kentucky Derby experience for sports bettors like me who don’t toe into horse racing except for once or twice a year — It usually ends in pain. One big hit can make up for years of failure, though, so that’s what I’ll keep striving for.

I’m going to keep it simple for today's 150^th version of America’s biggest horse race — one horse to win from the local fixed-odds market and one head-to-head matchup offered by sports books.

For the head-to-head, give me race-favorite Fierceness at -135 against Sierra Leone for $270 to win $200. This matchup can be found at South Point.

Fierceness’ best is a class beyond every other horse in the race including Sierra Leone, which got a tough draw in the No. 2 post position. Fierceness, the No. 17 horse, may run away with the victory, but the 2-to-1 odds to win are not enticing enough.

I’m therefore backing a sleeper in Honor Marie at 20-to-1 for $100 to win $2,000 at the SuperBook at Westgate Las Vegas. Honor Marie doesn’t have the lineage of Fierceness or Sierra Leone, but he’s been successful at Churchill Downs, and could outlast much of the rest of the field.

It’s a full-fledged gambling holiday with the Kentucky Derby, but there’s still a lot else to bet on too.

Read on for bets on seven other sports. Odds are the best currently available in Las Vegas at publication time with the sports book noted. Plays outside of the column will be linked and tracked in the record at the bottom of the page.

Golf (2-4, -$102): Si Woo Kim -155 head-to-head vs. KH Lee in third round of the CJ Cup Byron Nelson (Caesars/William Hill)

$310 to win $200

Kim is the best player in the field this week in North Texas. Lee is pretty far behind, certainly farther behind than this line suggests. It's no mystery as to why Lee is rated so highly here — He's won this event twice in the past and is off to another great start at 9-under par this week. That course history can be hard to ignore, but it shouldn't overpower all other pertinent evidence. And all other pertinent evidence points in the direction of Kim, who caught fire late in the second round and scored birdie or better on each of the last six holes. Why can't he keep it up into the weekend? Also sitting at 9-under par and five strokes back of the lead, Kim has a great chance to threaten for victory here. Maybe Lee does too but it seems more doubtful given his recent form, which should outweigh course history. 

NHL (4-2, $400): Boston Bruins -136 vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (SuperBook at Westgate Las Vegas)

$204 to win $150

It feels like a de facto requirement to weigh in on an NHL Game 7, and luckily, I do think there’s an edge on this game. Just not a large one. The Bruins have been the slightly better team overall in the series despite the Leafs storming back and winning the last two to tie the tally at three wins apiece. They also project as the better team going forward, especially with Toronto starting rookie Joseph Woll in net and having uncertainty on Auston Matthews’ status. Woll has played incredibly since taking over in the postseason, but his season-long performance would caution that he can’t be trusted. Matthews may play for the first time in three games, but even if that case, this number isn’t bad on Boston. I made the Bruins a -145 favorite, so a small bet is justified.

Major League Baseball (0-2, -$554): Los Angeles Dodgers -166 vs. Atlanta Braves (Boyd Sports)

$332 to win $200

The counter-argument to this bet would be that neither of the two most talented teams in baseball should be this big of an underdog to the other. While there might be some merit in that line of thinking, the mismatch of a starting-pitching showdown outweighs it for me. Tyler Glasnow vs. Bryce Elder is about as big of an advantage as either one of these teams could get on the mound. Glasnow is a perennial All-Star and a couple tiers above the soft-tossing Elder. The latter has continually outperformed his metrics, but that’s going to be tougher against a lineup as stacked as the one the Dodgers employ. Elder gives up too much contact to be successful against Los Angeles.

UFC (1-6, -$1,086): Steve Erceg +165 vs. Alexandre Pantoja at UFC 301 (SuperBook)

$100 to win $165

No one seems to be picking Erceg out of a fear that his flyweight title shot is coming too early. That’s a mistake. There’s no reason the 28-year-old Erceg shouldn’t be ready to give one of the UFC’s most vulnerable champions a scare. He’s younger, bigger and has better cardio than the 34-year-old Pantoja. This could go horribly wrong, and Erceg could be stopped within the first two rounds, but if the Australian just entering his prime survives, then the fight should shift in his favor. Pantoja should be slightly favored but this line implies less than a 40% chance that Erceg prevails. The number is too wide.

NASCAR (0-7, -$1,320): Ryan Blaney -110 head-to-head vs. Alex Bowman in AdventHealth 400 (SuperBook)

$220 to win $200

Time to harken back to the good ol’ days of last year when NASCAR bets seemingly couldn’t lose in the column, largely because of the oft-backed Blaney’s run to the Cup championship. Maybe he can find some magic again and pull me out of what might be the worst single-sport losing streak in the history of Weekend Wagers. Blaney’s history at intermediate tracks like Kansas is significantly better than Bowman’s. That deserves more weight in the betting market than it’s getting this week. Ford, Blaney’s manufacturer, has struggled mightily all season in comparison to Bowman’s Chevrolet. But there’s no doubt who’s the better driver among these two, especially on this week’s track type.

NASCAR (0-7, -$1,320): Kyle Larson to win AdventHealth 400 at 4-to-1 (South Point)

$300 to win $1,200

Larson is not one of the two Cup drivers that already has three victories this season — that would be Denny Hamlin and William Byron — but that’s highly misleading. He’s been faster than both of them. Larson only has one win to show for his speed, but it came in Las Vegas — the track most similar to Kansas. The 2021 Cup champion was totally dominant in that race, and the same could happen this weekend. He’s listed as a virtual co-favorite with Hamlin at most sports books, but that’s inaccurate. In the Cup series this year, there’s Larson, and then there’s everyone else.

UFL (2-0, $400): DC Defenders +2 vs. San Antonio Brahmas (Wynn)

$220 to win $200

DC got smoked 45-12 against St. Louis last week, and the market reacted too strongly to that result. San Antonio is not on St. Louis’ level, at least not anymore. The Brahmas looked even better to start the year but that was with longtime Raiders backup quarterback Chase Garbers under center. Garbers has since gone down with injury to leave the duties to Quinten Dormady, who’s capable but also highly volatile. Dormady threw three interceptions last week and posted less than 5.5 yards per pass attempt, but the Brahmas were still able to beat the lowly Arlington Renegades 25-15. He's going to need to be better against the Defenders, and it’s no guarantee that will happen.

NBA (3-2, $200): Indiana Pacers +6.5 at New York Knicks in Game 1 (STN Sports)

$275 to win $200

Sell high on the Knicks. New York is a good team with a roster that plays hard, defends well and complements a budding superstar in Jalen Brunson. But it is no NBA Finals threat. The Knicks have that in common with their second-round opponent, the Pacers. These two teams aren’t all that dissimilar from an overall quality standpoint. Indiana has an edge on offense almost as big as New York’s on defense. The lines painting the Knicks as significantly better than the Pacers are overblown. I’d recommend a bet on the Pacers to win the series at +250, though the market hasn’t yet gotten there with the underdog currently more in the +230 range. So, in the meantime, let’s take it game-by-game and wait to see if the target price on the series becomes available before Monday's tip-off. The Pacers aren't more than two possessions worse than the Knicks. 

2024 Weekend betting column: 33-38, $1,354.87

Weekend betting column all-time: 691-745-11, $32,635.87

Previous pending wagers: Edmonton Oilers to win 2024 Stanley Cup Final at 12-to-1 ($250 to win $3,000); Victor Wembanyama to win NBA Rookie of the Year at +125 ($400 to win $500); Rudy Gobert to win NBA Defensive Player of the Year at 5-to-1 ($300 to win $1,500); Oregon -1.5 -102 vs. Ohio State in Week 7 ($306 to win $300); Florida Panthers to win Stanley Cup at 10-to-1 ($250 to win $2,500); New York Yankees to win World Series ($300 to win $3,000); Christopher Bell to win NASCAR Cup championship at 12-to-1 ($200 to win $2,400); Patrick Mahomes to win 2024-2025 NFL MVP at +750 ($350 to win $2,625); Kansas City Chiefs to win Super Bowl 59 at 9-to-1 ($300 to win $2,700); New York Liberty to win WNBA Championship at +250 ($500 to win $1,250); Inter Miami to win MLS Cup at +300 ($500 to win $1,500); Tarik Skubal to win American League Cy Young at 20-to-1 ($120 to win $2,400); Cole Ragans to win American League Cy Young at 35-to-1 ($70 to win $2,450); Wake Forest to win the College World Series at 25-to-1 ($100 to win $2,500); Jayson Tatum to win NBA Finals MVP at +260 ($500 to win $1,300)

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or