Divisional-round sweats: Seven wagers to add to your NFL betting card

By Case Keefer (contact)

Saturday, Jan. 20, 2024 | 2 a.m.

Kansas City at Buffalo hasn’t only been the most popularly debated divisional-round matchup on talk shows and at water coolers. Opinions on the final game of the weekend, scheduled for 3:30 p.m. Sunday afternoon, are just as staunchly divided in local sports books.

Line movement has been sparse in NFL markets this week, except for the latest chapter in the rivalry between the Chiefs and Bills under Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen, respectively.

The point spread has ping-ponged back and forth between Buffalo as a 2.5- and 3-point favorite. It’s evident that +3 represents a buy point for many on the Chiefs, while -2.5 if a target price for others on the Bills.

Most sports books have settled on a juiced -2.5 as the midway point. The total on the game hasn’t moved as much, but it pogoed a bit too before an under lean won out.

The game is now over/under 45.5 after sitting as high as 46.5 early in the week.

Kansas City at Buffalo will almost surely be the most bet-on game of the season to this point, and I won’t sit idly by. I’m going to be just as invested as everyone else: Give me Buffalo and the over, but more importantly, I’ll sprinkle in some extra exposure via the exotic options.

That’s what the Sunday Sweats column is all about, and bets in our usual seven categories below. Lines are the best currently available at publication time in Las Vegas with the sports book noted. Plays from other betting columns will be linked and tracked here at the bottom of the page.

Tasty Total (14-5, $1,602): Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers under 50.5 (Wynn)

$220 to win $200

If the weather is going to hold back scoring anywhere this week, it might surprisingly be in Santa Clara, Calif. It’s set to be much colder in Baltimore and Buffalo, but the forecasts have actually improved in terms of the wind being milder than initially expected. Green Bay at San Francisco could be both slightly windy and rainy. That might be enough to hold a total this high under, especially if the 49ers get out to a lead as expected. San Francisco is masterful at milking clock and maintaining leads with its run game (more on that later) on offense and its defense is no slouch either. Packers quarterback Jordan Love has been sensational, but he’s probably not going to pour on the points this week. All the lines are tight on wild-card weekend, but this one might be point or two high.  

Two-(Or Three-) Team Teaser (7-12, -$1,070): Baltimore Ravens -2.5 & San Francisco 49ers -2.5 at -145 (Caesars/William Hill)

$290 to win $200

Yeah, it’s the dreaded 7-point teaser. These typically aren’t a good idea — I don’t think I’ve ever implemented one in the column more than once previously — but there are always exceptions. Given this situation and the relatively short price at Caesars/William Hill, I think this is an exception. I’m still operating under the same mindset that informed my Baltimore vs. San Francisco Super Bowl matchup bet a couple weeks ago — These two teams are even better than the rest of the NFL than the market realizes. I would be shocked if either lost this week. This teaser pays significantly better than a moneyline parlay — which is around -180 — and it’s not all that different in getting both spreads under a field goal. It may sound basic and the most square way possible to play today’s games, but that doesn’t preclude it from being a bet with a positive expected value.  

Moneyline Parlay (7-12, $1,693.87): Tampa Bay Buccaneers & Buffalo Bills at +474 (STN Sports)

$100 to win $474.48

This is kind of natural, right? Tie together the two Saturday games on the teaser to leave the two Sunday games for the parlay. Thanks to STN Sports for making it possible with valuable prices on both the sides I prefer. Buffalo at -145 is the best price in the market, as is Tampa Bay at +240. Those moneylines are so good that they’re probably better to bet than either point spread. Buffalo should be closer to -170, and probably would have been if not for Kansas City’s overvalued blowout of Miami last week. The value on Tampa Bay is thinner, as I make it around a +225 underdog to knock off Detroit. But that’s still value. The Lions probably eke out a win over the Buccaneers, but it’s not as certain as this line implies.

Player Prop (23-13, $2,162): Patrick Mahomes over 252.5 passing yards (SuperBook at Westgate Las Vegas)

$220 to win $200

It’s never hard to bet on Mahomes, except when I’m kind of inherently also betting against him with this wager. Let me explain: Part of the reason why I’m drawn to this over is because I think Kansas City will be playing from behind. In that game script, the Chiefs are going to have to throw the ball a lot. If Mahomes is throwing the ball a lot, he should soar over this number. Of course, I could be dead wrong on the game and Mahomes could still go over in a rout. That’s what I like so much about this prop. Mahomes’ total is usually higher, and it should be higher again here in his first career road playoff start.  

Lookahead Line (9-8, $110): Oregon -1.5 -102 vs. Ohio State in Week 7 (Boyd Sports)

$306 to win $300

I wanted to get creative like in the past couple weeks and find something NFL-related to loosely apply to this category, but nothing appealed to me quite enough. So we’re taking this to the extreme, and looking ahead nine months. Boyd put a few 2024 college football lines up, and someone needs to bet them, right? I don’t mind having all the future exposure possible on Oregon anyway. Georgia is the only team I’d rate ahead of Oregon going into next season. The fact that the Ducks are a pick’em in a home game requiring the Buckeyes to travel across the country doesn’t add up to me. I would have made Oregon a bigger favorite than this in a matchup between the two schools at the end of this season, and it’s returning more talent than Ohio State into next year. I understand not wanting to lock up money for a single game this far ahead of time, but to fulfill the category, this is the best choice. I made a slightly larger wager to hopefully make this feel a little more worth the while when it cashes in October.    

Future Finding (2-11, -$300): Christian McCaffrey to lead divisional round in rushing yards at +255 (Circa Sports)

$200 to win $510

The gap between McCaffrey and the NFL’s second-place finisher in rushing yards (Derrick Henry, sadly)  this season was nearly 300 yards. He’s been significantly more prolific than any other ball carrier, and that shouldn’t suddenly stop in the playoffs. It certainly shouldn’t stop if the 49ers’ postseason debut goes the way I laid out in the tasty total section above. Both the large point spread and the elements paint this as a game where San Francisco is likelier to go run-heavy. That should make McCaffrey no higher than 2-to-1 to lead the week in rushing yards. He was usually around +350 in this market during the regular season, and that was against rushers from 31 other teams instead of just seven now.  

Non-football Play (11-8, $1,804): Vancouver Canucks -125 vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (BetMGM)

$250 to win $200

The Pacific Division-leading Canucks may cool off at some point. Just not now. This line looks 20 cents off. Not only has Vancouver been clearly superior to Toronto over a prolonged sample but it’s also in a better rest spot Saturday night. The Maple Leafs are playing in their sixth game in nine days. They’ve lost five of them by the way, and only snapped the streak Thursday by expending a lot of effort to come back against a backup goalie in Calgary’s Dan Vladar. That won’t be so easy against Vancouver with Vezina contender Thatcher Demko looking set up to get the start. Vancouver is stronger, better rested and healthier. What more could you want?

Sunday Sweats season so far: 72-70, $5,418.87

2024 Weekend betting column year to date: 7-6, $640.87

Weekend betting column all-time: 664-706-11, $30,936.87 

Previous pending wagers: Philadelphia Eagles to win Super Bowl 58 at 9-to-1 ($300 to win $2,700); Nolan Smith to win NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year at 20-to-1 ($100 to win $2,000); Kansas to win 2024 NCAA Tournament at 14-to-1 ($200 to win $2,800); Buffalo Bills at 10-to-1 to win Super Bowl 58 ($100 to win $1,000); Lamar Jackson to win NFL MVP ($150 to win $2,700); Edmonton Oilers to win 2024 Stanley Cup Final at 12-to-1 ($250 to win $3,000); Anthony Richardson to win Offensive Rookie of the Year at 9-to-1 ($200 to win $1,800); Zay Flowers to win Offensive Rookie of the Year at 30-to-1 ($65 to win $1,950); Cleveland Cavaliers to win Central division at 3-to-1 ($300 to win $900); Victor Wembanyama to win NBA Rookie of the Year at +125 ($400 to win $500); AJ Brown to win Offensive Player of the Year at 18-to-1 ($100 to win $1,800); Rudy Gobert to win NBA Defensive Player of the Year at 5-to-1 ($300 to win $1,500); Tyreek Hill to win Offensive Player of the Year at Even money ($500 to win $500); South Carolina women's basketball to win NCAA Tournament at +450 ($400 to win $1,800); Super Bowl Matchup: San Francisco 49ers vs. Baltimore Ravens at +330 ($200 to win $660); Brock Purdy to lead the NFL playoffs in passing yards at +450 ($150 to win $675)

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or