John Minchillo / AP
Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., former Vice President Joe Biden, center, and Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., right, stand on stage before a Democratic presidential primary debate hosted by CNN and The New York Times at Otterbein University, Tuesday, Oct. 15, 2019, in Westerville, Ohio.
Sunday, Dec. 22, 2019 | 2 a.m.
Barack Obama was running against Hillary Clinton for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2007. One edge Clinton had over Obama was her experience as a former first lady and U.S. senator. Obama had only been on the national political scene for a couple years.
Then, Oprah Winfrey spoke up. “Experience to me in the hallways of government isn’t as valuable to me as experience on the pathway of life,” Winfrey said in throwing her support behind Obama.
Those heavily sought-after endorsements can help sway an election. The endorsement from Winfrey, who has a massive following, was significant in Obama’s run for the White House.
Celebrities, certain politicians or party leaders and worker unions can sway opinion. Imagine if Obama threw his support behind a 2020 presidential candidate in the crowded Democratic field?
“[It’s] basically where someone is signing off and saying, ‘Yep, I agree with this candidate. I think this candidate would do a good job,’ and that can matter a lot because a lot of these people ... have some constituency; they have supporters, people who voted them into office,” says Dan Lee, an assistant professor of political science at UNLV. “That’s why endorsements from elected officials can be so helpful, because you’re basically tapping into the endorser’s supporters.”
Before suspending her campaign, Sen. Kamala Harris, D-Calif., led the 2020 field of Democratic presidential candidates in Nevada endorsements with the backing of 45 politicians and community leaders. They included state Sen. Joyce Woodhouse, D-Henderson, and Assemblywoman Sandra Jauregui, D-Las Vegas, who were two of the first to endorse Harris.
Former Vice President Joe Biden also has quite a few endorsements in Nevada, including from Rep. Dina Titus, D-Nev. He was also endorsed by state Sen. Yvanna Cancela, a former political director at the Culinary Workers Union Local 226, the largest union in the state. Cancela has campaigned with Biden during many of his stops around the state.
Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., has been backed by, among others, Clark County Commissioner Tick Segerblom, who also endorsed him in 2016.
“This moment calls for a president who will unabashedly defend the rights of every worker in America, save our planet from climate catastrophe and address the profiteering and institutional racism that exists within the American criminal justice system,” Segerblom said in a statement. “I’m proud to stand with Bernie and the movement he is building to bring economic, social and environmental justice to all Nevadans.”
But do these endorsements do much? While there is evidence that certain endorsements can increase turnout, there’s also evidence that endorsements don’t immediately lock in votes for a candidate.
For example, Sanders and Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., have maintained a fairly significant lead in polling, but have relatively few endorsements both nationwide and in Nevada, compared with candidates like Biden.
A Pew Research Center study ahead of the 2008 election ranked potential endorsements in terms of their would-be impact on voter preferences. The highest ranked potential endorsement was the governor of the respondent’s state, with 19% of respondents saying that would be “more likely” to affect their vote.
None of the listed potential endorsers, however, were ranked by respondents as having a large impact on their potential vote. Even discussing a gubernatorial endorsement, 61% of respondents said it would have no impact on their vote.
A 2014 poll conducted by The New York Times, Siena College and Spectrum News NY1 in New York suggests that endorsements could matter more in congressional elections in which the candidates are more similar ideologically.
Michael Weiss, president of the Red Rock Democratic Club, says endorsements can be an invaluable tool for voters who might not be following elections closely or may be on the fence about which candidate they want to support. “It depends on, just on an individual level, how high in regard the individual voter takes the person or organization that makes the endorsement,” Weiss says.
For example, an undecided voter who isn’t certain about Biden could be influenced to support him because of an affinity for Titus, who endorsed Biden in November.
“I would say that endorsements matter more for voters who are very much on the fence, very conflicted with different candidates or [who are] engaged but not very actively engaged,” Weiss says. “Where it’s like they want to vote but perhaps they haven’t done all the research on their own or they don’t necessarily have all the facts on their own so [they] don’t make a sound decision by themselves. So, they’ll turn to somebody they trust or an organization they respect and make a decision from there.”
Lee says endorsements can help in presidential elections, and that candidates have different reasons for seeking endorsements—lower-polling candidates need endorsements to increase their standing while front-runners need endorsements to lock in their lead.
“Endorsements [are] important to all of them, but for different reasons,” he says. “For the leading candidates to remain in the lead and for the other candidates to close that gap.”
Lee says endorsements can give voters another place to turn to find out if they agree with a candidate’s beliefs. He also said endorsements can have a kind of reverse causality, however. Endorsements can come later in the election cycle, when potential endorsers are more confident in who will win the election and feel more comfortable hanging their reputation on a candidate.
“That’s something that people might disagree over, exactly how much reverse causality there is, but that’s one thing to keep in mind as well,” he says. “If someone is going to get endorsements, part of it is a little bit of a self-fulfilling prophecy, where the more viable candidate is going to have an easier time getting endorsements as well.”
A list of notable political endorsements from Nevada for the 2020 Democratic nomination:
Bernie Sanders: Clark County Commissioner Tick Segerblom
Elizabeth Warren: Assemblywoman Heidi Swank, D-Las Vegas; former state Sen. Joe Neal; former state Sen. Sheila Leslie; former Clark County Commissioner and Assemblywoman Chris Giunchigliani
Joe Biden: Rep. Dina Titus; former Rep. Shelley Berkley; former Rep. Jim Bilbray; former Assembly Speaker Richard Perkins; Assemblywoman Susie Martinez, D-Las Vegas; Assemblywoman Shannon Bilbray-Axelrod, D-Las Vegas; Assemblyman Ozzie Fumo, D-Las Vegas; former Assemblyman Elliot Anderson; former Las Vegas Councilman Bob Coffin; state Sen. Yvanna Cancela, D-Las Vegas
Julián Castro: Assemblyman Edgar Flores, D-Las Vegas
This story appeared in Las Vegas Weekly.
