As Democrats’ poll numbers go down, ad buys go up

By Jessica Hill

Sunday, April 3, 2022 | 2 a.m.

Another sign that Democrats are on the defensive in preparation for the upcoming midterm elections, which generally favor the party opposite of the president: The House Democrats’ main political action committee is spending nearly $102 million in early advertising spots across the country. In 2018, during a Democratic wave year, the Democratic PAC put out $43 million, according to The New York Times.

In Las Vegas alone, the House Majority PAC is allocating $11.6 million for television buys.

Democrats in Nevada are no doubt facing healthy challenges as the Nov. 8 midterms draw nearer. That’s evidenced in the results of new polling from Blueprint Polling, which is owned by Brad Chism, president and founder of a Democratic strategic communications firm based in Washington, D.C. The poll’s results put many Republican candidates ahead of their Democratic opponents in the Silver State.

The statewide survey, conducted in late March with 671 voters responding, found that Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo, the presumed frontrunner in the Republican primary for governor, is leading incumbent Democratic Gov. Steve Sisolak by 3.2%. Among white voters, Lombardo leads 47% to 39%; Sisolak leads 46.2% to 34% among voters of color.

Among Latino voters, Sisolak polled 36%, whereas Lombardo polled 34.6%, leaving 29.5% of Latino voters undecided.

In the U.S. Senate race, Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, the Democratic incumbent, is trailing behind her presumed Republican opponent, former Nevada Attorney General Adam Laxalt, by 5%.

Among white voters, Laxalt leads 51% to 41%, and among Hispanic voters, Cortez Masto ­— the first Latina elected to the U.S. Senate — and Laxalt are tied. Laxalt is also leading by 7% among independents, according to the survey.

The survey also found President Joe Biden leads former President Donald Trump (who some expect to run again for 2024) in Nevada by three points among voters with a college degree, but he trails Trump by 19 points among non-college educated voters.

The survey pointed to inflation, the “COVID hangover,” fuel prices and confusion over Ukraine as the reason Biden is doing poorly.

With polls putting Republicans ahead in several races, it’s no wonder why Democrats are increasing their defense in the Silver State. Republicans winning the Senate and House seats in Nevada could flip the whole U.S. Congress red, which would make it even more difficult for the Biden Administration to push their agenda.

Cortez Masto backs Jackson

Cortez Masto met with Supreme Court nominee Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson and announced her support last week, saying she is “incredibly well qualified” and that her experiences will bring an important perspective to the Supreme Court.

“I’m proud to support her historic confirmation,” Cortez Masto tweeted last week.

Many Republicans in the Senate, with the exception of Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, and possibly Sen. Mitt Romney, R-Utah, will oppose her nomination to the high Court. They feel she has a record of being “soft on crime,” particularly as it relates to pedophiles.

Laxalt called Jackson in a statement a “leftist jurist with a history of leniency toward the worst offenders in our society.”

“This is the kind of person who Joe Biden and Cortez Masto want to see on our nation’s highest court. It’s an affront to the rule of law and Nevadans will not stand for this,” Laxalt said in the statement.

A couple weeks ago the Sun talked with Cortez Masto about the GOP’s criticism that Jackson was “soft on crime.” She said those claims have been “discredited by law enforcement agencies, (and) prosecutors across the country.”

Republicans, such as Sen. Josh Hawley of Missouri, have pointed to seven child porn cases in which Jackson gave sentences lower than the federal guideline recommendations, but they failed to include probation officer recommendations, according to factcheck.org.

Jackson has said that she “consistently weighs all statutory factors concerning sentencing,” including what the probation officer recommends in their presentencing reports.

Factcheck.org found that Jackson’s sentences in five of the seven cases Hawley mentioned were “consistent with, or above, probation’s recommendation.”

In one case, however, Jackson sentenced defendant Wesley Hawkins to three months in prison, even though the prosecutor wanted two years and the probation office recommended 18 months. Jackson said that case was “unusual,” and the defendant had wanted probation.

Most sentences for defendants convicted of nonproduction child pornography in fiscal year 2019 were below the minimum sentencing guidelines, the factcheck.org article found. The U.S. Sentencing Commission has previously recommended changing the guidelines, saying it is outdated.

Nevada’s other U.S. senator, Democrat Jacky Rosen, signaled her support for Jackson after Biden announced the nomination in late February. “President Biden’s historic nomination of Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson will take the Supreme Court one step closer to representing the diversity of our country,” Rosen said in a statement Feb. 25.

The McConnell effect

An NBC News poll last week examined 15 different candidate issues and attributes for the 2022 midterms, finding the most popular attribute a candidate could have is support for funding the police and providing them with the resources and training they need to protect communities.

It’s no surprise that the least popular attribute is a candidate who wants to defund the police.

The second least-popular attribute a candidate could have might be a little more surprising: an endorsement from Republican Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, someone who has drawn ire from both the Democrats and Trump, and thereby his followers.

Last week McConnell attended one of Laxalt’s campaign events in D.C., and Laxalt’s opponents on both sides are giving him grief.

His Republican primary opponent, veteran Sam Brown, criticized Laxalt for not agreeing to debate in front of a live audience but rather in a studio to be aired at a later time, adding in a Twitter post that “(Laxalt’s) in DC with Mitch McConnell and an audience of DC lobbyists. We know who Adam really answers to.”

On the Democrat side, Andy Orellana, spokesperson for Democratic Victory Press, which aims to get Democrats elected, said, “It is clear that Laxalt remains focused on Washington Republicans like McConnell and the DC GOP policies that put donors over the priorities of Nevadans.”

“We are proud to have earned the endorsement of President Donald Trump, who has since been joined in supporting our campaign by Senss Ted Cruz, Josh Hawley, Mike Lee, Tom Cotton and many others across Nevada and the country,” said John Burke, communications director for the Laxalt campaign.

Legislation update

Nevada’s federal delegation continues to push different legislation forward, including Cortez Masto last week introducing a bill with Sen. Joni Ernst, R-Iowa, to study traumatic brain injuries in victims of domestic violence.

The Protecting Survivors from Traumatic Brain Injury Act of 2022 would require the Department of Health and Human Services to collect data on the connection between domestic violence and traumatic brain injuries, according to a statement from Cortez Masto’s office. It would help assess how prevalent those injuries are, and it would inform service providers about resources and support for survivors.

Also, Rosen and Sen. Mike Crapo, R-Idaho, led the effort to send a letter to Interior Secretary Deb Haaland urging her to allocate a portion of the department’s Bipartisan Infrastructure Law funding toward the sagebrush ecosystem in the West. The move would help wildfire mitigation efforts and support the regional economy, Rosen’s office said in a statement.

“Sagebrush restoration will help a critical landscape in the Western United States – one that supports vast biodiversity, contributes to the regional economy, and is vulnerable to destructive wildfires if not managed properly,” the senators wrote in the letter.

Countdown

Days to primary: 71

Days to midterms: 218

What to look out for this week

On Thursday Sam Shad, host of “Nevada Newsmakers,” will host a debate among Republican U.S. Senate candidates, including Bill Hockstedler and Sharelle Mendenhall, in Reno. Laxalt and Brown as of late last week had not yet indicated whether they would attend.