Saturday, March 1, 1997 | 11:59 a.m.
THE WORLD is a scary place.
Take the emerging concepts of direct-broadcast satellite service and individualized television. For someone who grew up in a generation that was happy to have Dizzy Dean and Pee Wee Reese calling a weekly New York Yankees game on national TV, the plethora of sports programming that's available now is a bit overwhelming.
In time, of course, everyone will adapt. Direct-to-home satellite business is already booming, and individualized television will be available on a limited basis in some parts of the country by the end of the year.
A few years down the road, choosing the sports you want to see on TV -- instead of TV making that decision for you -- will become second nature.
Yet at this point, this is a supply-and-demand issue in which the supply has not yet caught up with the demand. But, as always in these situations, that supply/demand gap will be closed as technology evolves and as affordability works its way into the equation.
With analysts saying cable growth can be expected to level off or perhaps decline by the year 2000, these newly developed systems will find their way into the common man's marketplace. The trepidation -- if not outright fear -- of getting acclimated to these new concepts will pass within a very short time.
Currently, the nation's leading direct-to-home satellite provider is DirecTV, a California-based outfit with 2.4 million subscribers. (PrimeStar, at 1.7 million subscribers, and EchoStar, with 400,100 subscribers, are also major players in the industry.)
"We don't break it down by cities or states," said DirecTV's manager of communications, Robert Mercer, when asked where Las Vegas fits into the developmental curve. "The only figure we use is 2.4 million nationally."
But Las Vegas, with its booming economy and countless sports fans, figures to be a rich market as DirecTV and its competitors expand. Anyone with an appetite for a steady stream of sports -- or movies -- will be able to chart a gluttonous course.
DirecTV has some intriguing program packages, from NFL Sunday Ticket to NBA League Pass to NHL Center Ice to Major League Baseball Extra Innings. College football, basketball, pro golf and boxing are also available as buyers can pick and choose the events they want to see. The rates are already reasonable, with, for instance, the NFL package of 13 games every Sunday available for $159 per season.
For direct-broadcast systems, both its goals and its viewers' incentives are easily defined. Systems like DirecTV strive to make every sporting event in the country available, while those in its audience are enticed by the relatively sudden prospect of seeing their favorite team play every game in its season.
Simplified, if you want to see all 162 games the Seattle Mariners will play this year, direct-to-home satellite will do it. DirecTV itself will broadcast 3,000 pro and college games this year.
The consumer must purchase the pizza-pan-size satellite dish from his chosen provider, and that expense has dropped from $600 to around $200 just in the last year. (Remember when 10-foot satellite dishes came on the scene in the early 1980s? Their price -- $3,000 -- prohibited any widespread development.)
Once connected to your TV, the dish can provide as many as 200 channels of entertainment available in basic packages that range from as little as $14.95 per month to $44.95 and beyond.
"Everything's there on an a la carte basis," Mercer said. "You can add as much or take as little as you want."
DirecTV projects its consumer base will expand to 10 million customers by the end of the decade and it has the financial incentive to meet that demand, as the accompanying projected profit would be $1 billion (on revenues of $4 billion) by 2000.
It's said that one in every 42 homes in the United States that have television sets are already receiving direct-to-home satellite service.
Those who doubt that figure will drop considerably are skeptical under the "low-hanging-fruit" theory that has as its base premise the belief that everyone who wants some form of direct TV already has it. They feel the industry will have a harder time attracting customers and they point to companies like DirecTV already having lowered their immediate subscriber projections.
But really, it appears as if the counter argument is more accurate. That premise: If people are already paying for cable TV, surely they'll pay a little more for 10 times the channels, as well as improved picture and sound.
(Individualized television, which will be tested in Texas later this year, will also offer a wide selection of sporting events on one channel, with the viewer able to switch camera angles -- and choose replays -- at his own discretion. "This is a stealth concept," industry analyst Michael Shonstrom told the Associated Press last week, explaining why few outside the business have heard of it. "When your cable distributor wants to upgrade you to digital, they'll say it's because you can have better picture, better sound AND this channel.")
Remember, this isn't a purely sports issue, as DirecTV, for example, has 55 different movies on every night for its subscribers to pick from.
Clearly, the day will come -- be it 10, 15 or 20 years away -- when each of us has his own 18-inch satellite dish and access to any and all sporting events of our choice.
That day, regardless of the anxiety certain to be felt by those of us who are already technologically challenged, will open up a brave new world.
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