Wednesday, March 19, 1997 | 11:59 a.m.
Naysayers waiting for Nevada's economy to take a tumble won't get much satisfaction from a round of reports issued this week.
Comstock Bank's fourth quarter survey of Nevada business and economics, UNLV's Southern Nevada index of leading economic indicators and Arizona State University's Western Blue Chip economic forecast all feature a familiar ring -- that the state's economy continues to be robust, despite a few hiccups in some categories.
Nevada's personal income growth continues to lead the nation, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Growth was 9.3 percent higher in the third quarter of 1996 over the same period a year earlier.
Western states had the best performance in personal income growth, with New Mexico (4.5 percent increase) the only state in the West below the U.S. average of 5.8 percent growth.
The consensus forecast of seven Nevada economists predicts an 8.5 percent growth rate in personal income for 1997 over 1996 and an 8.4 percent increase for 1998 over 1997.
The economists foresee increases in four out of five economic categories -- personal income, gross gaming revenues, wage and salary employment and population growth -- with a predicted decrease in housing permits.
Nevada isn't alone in economists' predictions on fewer housing permits. Experts in every western state, except California and New Mexico, are predicting downturns in that category for their states.
Nevada led the West in new residential building permits for 1996 over 1995. It had a 13.4 percent gain for the period compared with 13.0 percent for Utah, 11.0 percent for Washington and 10.9 percent for Texas. New Mexico and Idaho were the only western states reporting declines.
The Southern Nevada index of leading economic indicators compiled by UNLV showed some positive shifts following two months of negative changes.
Only two out of nine components in the index had negative changes in the February report, which recorded Clark County statistics from December.
Commercial building permits and valuation were down slightly, but residential building permits and valuation, taxable sales, McCarran International Airport passenger counts, gallons of gasoline consumed, gross gaming revenue, visitor volume and attendance at local conventions were all up. Contributions to the index are weighted based on adjustments for seasonal variations.
"The good news is the positive contributions taxable sales (0.37 percent) and gross gaming revenues (0.10 percent) showed in this month's index," said an analysis issued with the UNLV report.
"Although less dramatic than the very strong contribution by taxable sales, gross gaming revenue shifted to the positive side after five consecutive months of negative contribution to the index," the report said. "The bad news is that no strong conclusion can be made about the near future of the local economy. Once again, we must wait for the index's performance in the next two to three months to find a clearer picture of the economic outlook for the second half of 1997."
Comstock Bank's report, which analyzes the entire state, is filled with red flags, cautioning that the expansion of the national economy isn't being reflected in the state's gross gaming revenues.
Robert Barone, chairman and CEO of Reno-based Comstock, said the recent weakness of gaming revenues is being offset by strength in taxable sales.
"However, in the northern gaming markets, employment, gaming and sales are all showing signs of sluggishness and the problems appear more pervasive and entrenched," Barone said in his report.
"Without some ongoing program to insure the continuation of these types of tourism and convention-related events, programs to revitalize the Northern Nevada tourism and gaming 'product' and some means to mitigate the growing competition from the Southern Nevada casino market and the proliferation of Indian gaming, both of which are draining away our customer base, then the long-term outlook for Reno's tourism and gaming is disconcerting at best."
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