Monday, March 15, 1999 | 9:48 a.m.
LAS VEGAS -- Do you dare compete against the Force?
With "Star Wars Episode I: The Phantom Menace" a clear threat to demolish "Titanic's" worldwide box office record of $1.8 billion, other studios must now answer that agonizing question.
No one at last week's ShoWest convention of the nation's theater owners expressed the remotest concern over how the fourth "Star Wars" movie will do. Instead, the big worry is whether moviegoers will attend any other film after the epic opens May 19.
"It's going to be difficult to compete because 'Star Wars' is clearly going to appeal across all demographics," said analyst Dan Marks of ACNielsen EDI. "These are very tough decisions, because there are millions of dollars at stake. That's why studio executives get paid well."
Since "Episode I" is the most anticipated movie since "Gone With the Wind," rival studios face the prospect of being unable to take advantage of the usual late spring to midsummer spike in moviegoing. Should they plow ahead with typical star-driven "tentpole" films or throw in the towel and avoid a direct confrontation?
The early answer: Everyone is getting out of the way. Studios have already decided to hold blockbuster candidates until June 11, when New Line's "Austin Powers II: The Spy Who Shagged Me" opens and Paramount rolls out the John Travolta thriller "The General's Daughter." Business will start returning to normal on June 18 with Disney's "Tarzan," Universal's Julia Roberts comedy "Notting Hill" and Paramount's "South Park."
But this summer's only other candidate for mega-hit status - a film able to appeal to all audiences - won't open until July 2, when Warner Bros. rolls out "Wild Wild West," a reunion of "Men In Black" star Will Smith and director Barry Sonnenfeld. If a studio opens anything before then, it's going to be targeted at a well-defined niche audience.
"What we hear from insiders is there's absolutely no question the new 'Star Wars' will surpass 'Titanic' domestically and worldwide," said Dan Klusmann, publisher of the Independent Marketing Edge newsletter, during an interview at ShoWest. "The new trailer looked extremely impressive."
Still, there are opportunities. Only one in nine of the nation's 34,000 screens will be occupied by the tale of Luke Skywalker's father. That's because 20th Century Fox, which has generated $1.8 billion in worldwide box office from three previous "Star Wars" movies, and director George Lucas have promised not to take every screen possible.
Early plans are for the studio to place the movie in 3,800 to 4,000 screens - far short of the 7,000-plus Sony used for "Godzilla" last May.
"We could probably sell out all 20 screens if we could put the new 'Star Wars' on every single screen," said John King Jr., manager of Pacific's Winnetka All-Stadium 20 in suburban Los Angeles. "It will clearly monopolize our biggest auditoriums for quite a while."
The optimistic view is that many of those wanting to see "Episode I" will settle for other films. "The new 'Star Wars' is not a menace - it is the greatest catalyst for moviegoing ever," said Disney marketing executive Chuck Viane. "Once you start it rolling, people are going to be drawn to the movies. If you have a trailer placed before 'Star Wars,' you're going to reap huge benefits."
Viane, recalling his days in the exhibition business, said, "We used to notice that every time we got a line in front of the theater, it would always get longer but if there wasn't a line, you couldn't pay people to come in."
Disney's strategy will be similar to its 1996 campaign for "Phenomenon," which surprised everyone by taking in more than $100 million domestically even though it opened against "Independence Day." Viane said the studio will aim at older moviegoers in its push for "Instinct," an adventure-drama starring Anthony Hopkins and Cuba Gooding Jr. due out June 4.
"We think we can attract the people who don't need the instant gratification of seeing 'Episode I' during its first month," he said.
But King, whose theater is among the top 10 grossers nationwide, admitted he is skeptical. "What everyone is hoping for is that there will be a spillover effect," King noted. "But then, there's not a lot else opening around 'Star Wars.' "
Tom Borys, president of ACNielsen EDI, warned that studios may be making a mistake to give "Episode I" so much space. "If you don't take the risk, holding back can become a self-fulfilling prophecy," he said.
Borys noted that during the Atlanta Olympics, studios scheduled second-tier movies in fear that Americans would be watching the Games instead of going to movies. "A Time to Kill," one of the few movies released during the Olympics, became the only movie with significant business. "You can counter-program," he added. "You can't just give up the whole summer to 'Star Wars.' "
Five studios have already given a wide berth to "Star Wars:"
-- Warner Bros. is releasing nothing after April 23's opening of the David Spade comedy "Lost and Found" until July 2 when "Wild Wild West," the early favorite to take in the summer's second-highest gross.
-- Paramount's schedule is vacant from April 23, when it opens "Election," until its June 11 roll-out of "The General's Daughter."
-- Disney is taking a cautious approach with a slate that's empty for more than two months, between March 31's comedy-drama "Ten Things I Hate About You" to June 4's "Instinct."
-- New Line's slate is empty from April 30, when it rolls out beauty-queen comedy "Drop Dead Gorgeous" (formerly "Dairy Queens"), until June 11 when "Austin Powers II" opens.
-- Fox's slate, understandably, is clear except for "Episode I" during May and June. On April 30, it opens the action-thriller "Entrapment"; on July 9, it debuts "The Fight Club."
Other majors will take a more direct approach:
-- DreamWorks has decided to go mano-a-mano with the Force, opening romantic comedy "The Love Letter" with Kate Capshaw two days after "Episode One."
"Our thinking is that the primary demographic will be women on what will be a huge weekend," said distribution chief James Tharp. "We think 'The Love Letter' will do well enough for us to expand it in the following weeks. There should be plenty of screens available."
DreamWorks will not open another film until July 23, with "The Haunting of Hill House."
-- MGM will open drama-adventure "One Man's Hero" on May 7 and long-shelved comedy "The Extreme Adventures of Super Dave" on May 14. The troubled studio will also roll out an updated version of "The Thomas Crown Affair" with Pierce Brosnan and Rene Russo on June 4.
-- Sony has placed action-thriller "Arlington Road," in which Jeff Bridges' character discovers his neighbor is a terrorist, on May 14. Two weeks later, it opens horror-thriller "Thirteenth Floor."
-- Universal has high hopes for its update of Boris Karloff's 1932 classic, "The Mummy," opening May 7 with Brendan Fraser. It will debut "American Pie," an ensemble comedy about high schoolers vowing to lose their virginity, on May 28.
What has the best shot of challenging "Wild Wild West" for the summer's No. 2 spot? Early betting is on "Austin Powers II," which received a strong response after New Line showed its latest trailer at ShoWest.
"I was not an 'Austin Powers' fan, but my son made me watch the video of the original, and now I think the sequel is going to do a lot better," Klusmann said. The 1997 comedy hit $53 million domestically; marketing chief Al Shapiro told ShoWest the studio is planning on "many shag-eriffic sequels."
Not to be counted out is Disney, which is gearing up for "Tarzan" and the July 23 release of "Inspector Gadget." Viane noted both will be able to take advantage of the strong uptick in family moviegoing during the summer, adding, "For families during the summer, every day is a holiday."
Wall Street has already noticed "Tarzan." A "unanimously strong positive" response at ShoWest led analyst Stewart Halpern of ING Barings Furman Selz to repeat his "buy" rating on Disney stock.
Disney took the unusual step of showing ShoWest attendees a nearly completed version of "Tarzan" followed by an hour-long concert by Phil Collins, who is providing the soundtrack.
"We think 'Tarzan' is going to be big," said Robert Bucksbaum, president of the Reel Source tracking service. "It's oriented toward teen-agers, but it's going to bring in all audiences."
Other summer break-out contenders include Sony's "Big Daddy" with Adam Sandler, due June 25; a pair of Julia Roberts comedies, "Notting Hill" and Paramount's "Runaway Bride" on July 30; and the most mysterious movie in many years, the late Stanley Kubrick's "Eyes Wide Shut," due July 16 from Warner.
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