Monday, Nov. 8, 1999 | 10:52 a.m.
Nevada will lead the nation in job growth next year, although the state's home building sector will experience a slowdown.
That was the message delivered by U.S. Bank chief economist John Mitchell at an annual economic revue last week.
"Nevada will assume its rightful place as the No. 1 state in the nation for per capita job growth next year," he said. "In 2000, we expect the state's employment growth to be about 4.5 percent. And this year is finishing on a strong note. On a year-over-year basis, Las Vegas experienced 6.5 percent employment growth through the end of September, up two points over last year's (growth) rate.
Nevada's service sector added 25,400 new jobs between September 1998 and September 1999, primarily due to the opening of several new mega-resorts, said Mitchell. Businesses involved in trade ranked second in new job creation, generating 11,400 new jobs during the same period.
Still, not all of Nevada's economic signposts are encouraging.
"Statewide, residential building permits are down 7 percent so far this year," said Mitchell. "Also, the mining industry continues to struggle for a variety of reasons."
Another unknown factor looming large is the Year 2000 computer glitch, he said.
"I think most knowledgeable people agree that Y2K computer problems will be minimal," said Mitchell. "What remains unknown is the human behavior factor. Will millions of people take money out the bank, or stock up on food before year's end? And what impact will that have on the economy?"
The underlying strengths of both the regional and national economy continue to be low unemployment and continued Gross Domestic Product growth, Mitchell said.
"With both unemployment and GDP growth hovering at 4 percent, consumers feel as though it's easy to get a job and are willing to spend money based on that confidence. That's important, because individual consumption is about two-thirds of the economy."
Mitchell said the United States is currently in its 104th month of economic growth, approaching the all-time record of 106 positive months set during the 1960s; a driving factor behind the economy's continued growth has been the explosion of new technology.
"Technological advances have boosted productivity, produced more reliable business information, and helped keep inflation at bay," he said.
Despite the potential pitfalls, Mitchell cited several favorable economic indicators as reasons for continued optimism next year. They include:
Mitchell, a self-proclaimed "economic optimist," said even an expected hike in interest rates by the Federal Reserve provided no cause for alarm.
"Even if they raise rates this month, they'd only be taking back the cuts they made last year," he said.
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