Tuesday, Nov. 18, 2008 | 2 a.m.
Elections are like a blend of the Academy Awards and the Super Bowl in that people love to guess the winners and the score. Also: lots of people guess wrong.
I’m guessing 640,00 to 650,000 people will vote. — Larry Lomax, Clark County registrar of voters. Oct. 19 (Review-Journal)
Analysis: Close enough — 652,000 people turned out.
It’s hard to believe turnout could get up to 85 percent, but it looks like 700,000 people will vote in Clark County. — Lomax. Nov. 4 (Review-Journal)
Analysis: Those 652,000 people represented 80 percent of registered voters, the same percentage as voted in 2004. Shoulda stuck to your guns, Larry.
Barack Obama will win Nevada narrowly, Jill Derby will barely lose to Dean Heller in the 2nd Congressional District and Dina Titus will beat Jon Porter by at least 8 points in the 3rd Congressional District. — Steve Nathan, Las Vegas political consultant. Nov. 4 (Review-Journal)
Analysis: Obama handily won, by 11.5 percentage points, Derby was thumped, by 10.4 points, and Titus beat Porter by 5.1 points.
Hillary Clinton and Obama are so busy beating each other up. Six months ago, I would not have been as optimistic for the party but every time I turn on the TV, I’m more optimistic. — Republican 3rd District Congressman Jon Porter, March 30 (Review-Journal)
Analysis: Nearly 90 percent of registered Democrats voted for Obama, suggesting any wounds from the primary had healed by Election Day and the long campaign organized Democratic activists and voters in all 50 states. Porter lost his race and is now a lame duck.
Once Nevadans find out how anti-gun the Obama-Biden ticket is, that could be a deciding factor. — Sen. John Ensign, chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee. Sept. 11 (Sun)
Analysis: In national exit polls, vast majorities of voters said their top issue was the economy. After that, it was the Iraq war, health care and terrorism. And Obama won Nevada at a higher percentage than he won the national popular vote.
We’ll be in as a good a position as we need to be to win the election. — Mike DuHaime, McCain campaign national political director. Sept. 11 (Sun)
Analysis: Well, no, obviously. In the popular vote, McCain lost by Dukakis numbers. Still, it was part of DuHaime’s job to put the best public face on things ...
It won’t be as small an Obama victory as people say. But only if we do the work. — Terence Tolbert, Nevada director of Obama’s campaign. Aug. 10 (Sun)
Analysis: Tolbert did not live to see his prediction come true. He died of a heart attack two days before the election.
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