Races for upper chamber shift from attack mode to turnout mode

By Sam Skolnik

Thursday, Oct. 30, 2008 | 2 a.m.

Key state Senate races in Summerlin and Henderson have been among the nastiest local political campaigns this year.

The two incumbent Republican senators, Bob Beers in District 6 and Joe Heck in District 5, as well as their Democratic opponents — Allison Copening and Shirley Breeden, respectively — and their proxies have been slinging mud at each other for months through misleading, if not outright false, mailers and television advertisements.

But political pros and the candidates themselves say the focal point has shifted from the ad wars to making sure every single favorable voter gets to the polls — now, through early voting, and on Election Day.

GOP political consultant Robert Uithoven, who’s representing both the Beers and Heck campaigns, said that at this stage “it’s all about turnout ... It’s a lot of knocking on doors and phone calls. Thousands a day.”

Democrats are doing the same.

Breeden said she’s knocked on more than 11,000 doors — with a dozen pounds lost as a result — and plans to hit as many more as she can from now until Tuesday.

She said she wants to keep talking to voters about the issues most important to her. Generally speaking, she said, those include children and safety and seniors and health care.

“We can’t let up now,” Breeden said. “We have to work like we’re 15 points behind.”

The races have received attention in large part because the Senate’s balance of power will likely be decided by the results. Should either Beers or Heck lose, it would give Democrats a majority in the Senate for the first time since 1991.

Republicans hold an 11-10 majority in the Senate. Democrats control the Assembly.

At the outset, the Republicans seemed to have the most important advantages. Beers and Heck are veteran legislators and household names. By contrast, Copening and Breeden are political novices.

And yet, those advantages could be negated by three things: a ruthless and unending proxy advertising war on behalf of Breeden and Copening from the state Democratic Party; rising Democratic voter registration in Clark County; and an overall anti-Republican climate that seems to have permeated even the reddest of regions, locally and nationally.

If early voting trends are indications, Beers and Heck may have steep hills to climb.

According to Clark County Election Department figures, as of Wednesday, Democratic voters in District 5 who had voted early or sent in absentee ballots cast 48 percent of the total votes, compared with 36 percent for Republicans.

In District 6, 48 percent of votes cast so far have been by Democrats, and 37 percent have been by Republicans.

According to Heck, the early voting totals should be qualified. In his race, he expects a lot of crossover votes from Democrats, he said.

“The advantage Beers and Heck have is incumbency,” said Las Vegas Democratic strategist Dan Hart, who is not directly involved with the Copening or Breeden campaigns. “But the dynamics of the races are all going the other way. In any other year, these wouldn’t be contests.”

The latest publicly available polling points toward tight races in both districts.

According to polls released about three weeks ago by the Democratic-leaning group Project New West, Breeden held a 4-point lead over Heck, and Copening led Beers by 3 points. Both leads were within the polls’ margins for error.

Republican strategist Uithoven said his internal polling suggested that Beers and Heck were ahead, though he declined to release more specifics.

Both races have been largely nasty and negative from the get-go, with unceasing negative attack mailers and television ads — many of which have been discredited in media reports as misleading, unfair or downright untrue.

The initial wave of attack ads was sponsored by the state Democratic Party.

Some ads targeting Heck, a doctor, featured images of suffering cancer patients and inaccurately portrayed him as opposing cervical cancer screenings.

But those ads have been matched recently — in tone, at least, if not in volume — by the Republicans. A recent mailer attacking Copening, for example, featured the face of a rat on the cover and attacked her, unfairly, for being soft on rodent infestations when she worked for a local housing developer.

“I’m concerned that constituents are unfocused as to what to believe,” Copening said of the ads run against her.

She said the best way to counteract the ads has been to knock on thousands of doors personally to let voters know who she is and what she hopes to achieve in Carson City.

Republicans are suggesting that the state Democrats have spent more than $1 million on independent expenditure ads for Breeden and Copening — even more than the party spent on behalf of state Sen. Dina Titus’ unsuccessful gubernatorial bid two years ago.

Travis Brock, executive director of the state Democratic Party, did not return a call for comment.