The fragility of leaders’ truce

By Jon Ralston

Friday, April 3, 2009 | 2:01 a.m.

The Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse appeared Wednesday afternoon in the Legislative Building, harbingers of the day of reckoning to come.

These ominous riders appeared at the midway point of the regular session, warning at a news conference of the legislative equivalent of pestilence, famine, war and death to come but assuring the assembled jackals that they were working together in the spirit of bipartisanship, collegiality and love.

Or words to that effect. And, alas, all that they have right now are words, with accompanying forced smiles and so-far empty promises of plans.

But omens of what’s in store as the endgame cometh were palpable, perhaps most obvious in the geography at the podium as the Democrats stood a few paces away from the Republicans, space that could prove metaphorical, too.

Assembly Speaker Barbara Buckley, Assembly Minority Leader Heidi Gansert, Senate Majority Leader Steven Horsford and Senate Minority Leader Bill Raggio were there to deliver a simple message to the masses through the media conduit: We are in, as Madame Speaker put it, “uncharted waters,” with a 37 percent downturn in revenue, but there will be shared sacrifice as essential services are preserved.

No news there. Indeed, the only newsworthy statements were made by Focus Properties’ John Ritter, whose visionary development company has been bludgeoned by the recession and who, along with other business types, has agreed to advise lawmakers. Ritter said what the lawmakers — at least some of them — were thinking but refused to deviate from a now-familiar script.

“That level of services has put us at the bottom of every list,” Ritter declared. “We need to talk about the future. We should never be here again.”

Ritter made those comments shortly before he estimated that $1 billion in new taxes is probably needed — and you could almost see the Four Horsemen squirming as they wondered if the apocalypse was nigh. The process, the media, the public can’t handle the truth!

The problem is that the leaders are approaching the imminent day of reckoning without any reckoning of what they need or what they can actually pass. The delicate partnership is tangibly fragile, with the Senate caucuses full of members who could shatter the truce at any time.

This is the way the legislative world usually ends, as the Four Horsemen prophesied:

First, pestilence. The disease of half measures is contagious in the building and seems likely to infect any final agreement. Doing what Ritter suggested — a “grab bag” of taxes on business, perhaps — must be balanced with political and economic realities along with a melange of personalities, ideologies and egos.

Second, war. At some point, if history is a guide, the four will become two. An outbreak of partisanship seems inevitable. Some kind of conflict will break out, over actual spending and taxing issues or some of the other measures that will be part of the final horse-trading — energy, construction defects, medical malpractice.

Third, famine. The starvation here will be of ideas. Lawmakers are likely to do what occurred in The Great Tax Non-Debate of 2003, when an incoherent mishmash was passed to hit a number just over $830 million. And they will do everything they can to not just stay under what Buckley called “the B-word” (billion), which she labeled “unsustainable,” but also under the 2003 number, so those 2010 mailers don’t say they passed the largest tax increase in history.

Fourth, death. Perhaps both political and economic. Whether the ultimate budget hole turns out to be closer to $2 billion or $3 billion, there will not be time to vet a comprehensive solution, which will be entombed with the best intentions. Horsford, echoing what has been a mantra by the Democrats, insisted lawmakers would be “just as deliberative in our discussion of revenues as we have been on the budget.”

If only. The Legislature has been poring over the budget for two months. By the time the Economic Forum presents its projections May 1, lawmakers will have about three weeks to present their priorities and pass a tax plan. Three weeks — 21 Days in May, without Kirk Douglas to save the world.

Maybe this will not end like other sessions. Maybe the bipartisanship will hold, maybe the stimulus money will make the decisions less painful, maybe the Gang of 63 will enact something broad-based so when the economy turns around the state can be funded to the levels Ritter and so many others believe it should be.

But after seeing the four horsemen Wednesday and after being jaded by history, I wonder: Who will be riding the white horse to make that happen?