In search of bracket’s best bets

By Jeff Haney

Wednesday, Feb. 18, 2009 | 2 a.m.

College basketball fans of an empirical bent often rely, at least in part, on the bracket odds compiled by the crew at TeamRankings.com in forecasting the results of the annual NCAA Tournament.

Although the site’s statistics are posted for informational purposes rather than betting activity, comparing its odds to those available in Las Vegas sports books can be a revealing exercise.

Of the teams projected to carry the highest seeds, for example, several potentially decent wagers — along with some to stay away from — emerge.

Take North Carolina. The Tar Heels are given the best chance to win the tournament at 25.86 percent (along with a tournament-high 51.26 chance of making the Final Four), which equates to plus 286 (risk $1 to net $2.86) on the betting board. Yet the most widely available odds on North Carolina to win the tournament in Las Vegas range from even money (yikes) to 5-2.

Among the other projected top seeds, only Pittsburgh looks like a solid bet. Pitt is given a 16.25 percent chance to win the championship, or just over 5-1. The Panthers can be found in the range of 5-1 to 7-1 at most major Las Vegas casinos.

The other projected No. 1 seeds (the site uses David Mihm’s Bracketography.com until the official bracket is announced), Connecticut and Oklahoma, don’t offer any value to bettors.

UConn is given a 13.17 percent chance to win the title, or about 6 1/2-1 in Las Vegas terms. The actual odds on the Huskies generally range from just 7-2 to 9-2.

Likewise, Oklahoma’s 6.57 percent chance to win equates to odds of just over 14-1. The actual odds on the Sooners range from 7-1 to 14-1. (As always, odds can and do change by the minute, and diligently shopping around could yield higher or lower prices.)

Of the projected No. 2 seeds, Clemson looks like a solid bet — statistically, at least. The Tigers would have to rebound from regular-season straight-up losses to Wake Forest, North Carolina and Florida State.

Still, Clemson is given a 2.29 percent chance of winning (and, incidentally, a 13.18 percent chance of advancing to the Final Four), or about 42-1 in Vegas-style odds. The Tigers can be found in the range of 35-1 (no thanks) to 65-1 (not bad) in Las Vegas.

Louisville might be the most overvalued team of the leading contenders for the NCAA title. Although the Cardinals are given only a 1.35 percent change of winning the tournament (73-1), their odds on many Las Vegas betting boards range from about 6-1 to 10-1.

UFC odds

Diego Sanchez is listed as nearly a 3-1 betting favorite in his Ultimate Fighting Championship lightweight debut against Joe Stevenson in the main event of UFC 95 Saturday in London.

Oddsmakers and the betting marketplace figure the fight is more likely to go to a decision, however, than end via stoppage by either fighter in a particular round.

The odds of a Sanchez victory by decision are just 2-1 at the Venetian on the Strip, compared with 5-1 on a first-round stoppage by Sanchez, 9-2 on a second-round stoppage by Sanchez and 4-1 on a third-round stoppage by Sanchez.

The odds on Stevenson pulling a first-round upset are 12-1, and it’s 10-1 he’ll win in the second round, 10-1 in the third round, and 6-1 by decision. It’s 25-1 the scheduled three-rounder will end in a draw.