Offensive efficiency analysis

By Jeff Haney

Friday, Feb. 20, 2009 | 2 a.m.

When Pittsburgh beat Connecticut in a Big East basketball clash Monday night, it was considered an upset vis-a-vis the point spread.

Pitt, on the road, went off as a 3-point underdog in the game before winning 76-68.

The Panthers (plus the points) were probably a solid play, however, for bettors who incorporate the statistical category known as offensive efficiency into their handicapping.

Offensive efficiency measures the points a given team scores per 100 possessions. It serves to level the playing field when comparing teams that employ offenses of varying tempos.

A team with a fast-paced offense, for example, might score a lot more points but in a far less efficient manner than a team with a more deliberate style.

And throughout this season, offensive efficiency has been a solid indicator of a team’s propensity to cover the point spread — at least by one measure.

The top 10 teams in offensive efficiency (as ranked on the stats-oriented, nongambling Web site kenpom.com) have compiled a record of 111-93 against the point spread this season. That winning percentage of 54.4 percent handily beats the magic number of roughly 52.4 percent required to break even after taking into account the standard vigorish (risking 110 to win 100).

A bettor risking a hypothetical 1.1 units to win 1 unit on each game would show a profit of more than 8 units.

This is noteworthy because although you would expect the most efficient offenses to come from successful teams, the point spread is supposed to act as an equalizer. These top teams are exceeding even the expectations of the oddsmakers and the betting marketplace.

Pitt would have been a “play on” against UConn because the Panthers sit atop the offensive efficiency rankings with 118 points scored per 100 possessions.

The remaining teams in the top 10 check in with offensive efficiency ratings ranging from 117.6 (No. 2 North Carolina) to 114.1 (No. 10 Marquette).

Pitt’s record of 13-6 against the spread places it in a group of five teams in the top 10 with winning records against the point spread. The others are Arizona State (14-7), Oklahoma (12-8), Utah State (11-8) and Eastern Kentucky (11-8). Three teams in the top 10 have even records against the spread: UCLA (12-12), Marquette (11-11) and BYU (11-11). The remaining two have losing records against the betting number: North Carolina (10-13) and Florida (7-10).

The next seemingly logical step of betting against teams in the bottom 10 of offensive efficiency would have also yielded a winning record this season, but one not quite good enough to beat the standard vig.

Playing against the bottom 10 would have resulted in a record of 98-90 to date, or 52.2 percent, just short of the break-even point laying the traditional 110 to win 100 on each wager. A bettor would be down 1 unit after those 188 plays.

St. Peter’s of the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference and Pepperdine of the West Coast Conference have been the most successful against the spread of the teams in the bottom 10, at 12-5 and 13-10 respectively.

Dartmouth is 7-5 against the spread, Indiana is 9-9 and the remaining teams are small to medium losers: Valparaiso (10-11), Canisius (9-10), Detroit (7-13), Toledo (7-12), Loyola Marymount (9-12) and Eastern Michigan (7-11).

Only teams whose games regularly carry point spreads were considered. New Jersey Tech, for instance, is ranked dead last in offensive efficiency but few if any of its games are “lined.” Games without point spreads and pushes against the spread were thrown out of consideration.

As always, shopping around to find the best number and/or betting into lines with nonstandard, reduced vigorish will improve your results. It’s usually not a good move to follow any betting strategy, or so-called “system,” blindly, and there’s never a guarantee of future results. But with a winning record against the spread after so many “trials” — or games played — offensive efficiency could be worth a closer look.