Bet Utah for the spread, not team’s record

By Jeff Haney

Friday, Jan. 2, 2009 | 2 a.m.

Utah looks like an attractive play as an underdog in the Sugar Bowl today for one Las Vegas sports betting analyst, but not because of the Utes’ 12-0 record.

The value of regular-season win-loss marks often ranges from misleading to meaningless when sizing up bowl-game clashes, handicapper Joe D’Amico said.

“You have matchups all the time between a team that’s 12-1 from one conference and a team that’s something like 7-4 in another,” D’Amico said. “The 12-1 team doesn’t necessarily have to be better. In some conferences, the third or fourth team could be better, by far, than the top team from another conference.

“It’s like an amateur fighter who’s 35-0 fighting a pro with four losses against tough competition. The amateur’s going to lose.”

Sure, Utah of the Mountain West is undefeated and owns the nation’s longest winning streak at 13 games. But Alabama went 12-1 in winning the Southeastern Conference’s West division — and it was tied with the Utes for the longest winning streak before losing to Florida in the SEC title game.

The deciding factor, according to D’Amico, is an inflated point spread of 9 1/2 points — “way too many” considering how he expects the game to play out.

Besides Utah plus 9 1/2 against Alabama, D’Amico is recommending a wager on Florida laying 3 points against Oklahoma in the BCS title game Thursday. Those are his top two selections from the portion of the bowl schedule encompassing today through Thursday’s finale.

The Sugar Bowl could develop into a grind-it-out affair, D’Amico said. Utah figures to rely on its running back tandem of 230-pound Matt Asiata and 220-pound Darrell Mack, who have combined to rush for more than 1,200 yards. Alabama is also likely to try to run the ball against the Utes’ tough rushing defense.

“Utah is going to give it to those two big, bruising running backs to try to pound the ball up the middle,” said D’Amico (online at the betting Web site Vegasinsider.com). “Alabama can run the ball, but giving Utah 9 1/2 points in a bowl game is a lot. It’s too many for a team this good.”

D’Amico also gives high marks to Utah quarterback Brian Johnson, a finalist for the Manning Award, who has recorded 24 touchdowns and just nine interceptions.

The point spread in the game has been trending downward in Las Vegas sports books, having opened at 10 or 10 1/2 around town before drifting as low as 9 points in some spots.

D’Amico might have picked Florida in the BCS title game anyway, but the Gators’ come-from-behind victory against Alabama for the SEC championship Dec. 6 clinched his decision.

The 31-20 victory, in which Florida outscored Alabama 14-0 in the fourth quarter, demonstrated the team’s character — something that doesn’t always show up in the point spread.

“That showed me a lot,” D’Amico said. “It’s one thing to be a team that gets out to quick starts and knocks its opponent around through halftime and then again in the second half. But to come back against a team that was probably the best team in the country at the time, that shows you so much.

“You know how good a team is not by how many teams they beat in a row, but by whether they can rally back from a deficit in a game, or even how they come back from a loss. That’s when you find out what they’re made of.”

It’s no secret that Oklahoma will be missing running back DeMarco Murray (the former Bishop Gorman star), out with a hamstring injury that required surgery, but D’Amico believes his absence could alter the dynamic of the game to a greater degree than the point spread reflects.

“I think Florida will be the national champion,” D’Amico said. “They have the coaching, the leadership, a pro-style system and momentum. This is a great situation for Florida.”