Losers lovable on prop bet

By Jeff Haney

Friday, June 5, 2009 | 2 a.m.

In the NFL’s 2003 regular season, four teams lost 12 games: the Chargers, Raiders, Giants and Cardinals.

No team had more than 12 regular-season losses.

It was a noteworthy — and quirky — result because it was the only time in the past 21 seasons that no NFL team lost 13 or more games.

That arcane piece of football trivia has suddenly become relevant because of a betting proposition recently posted in Las Vegas.

The prop, available at all Lucky’s sports books, asks whether any NFL team will lose 13 or more games in the coming regular season.

The “yes” side of the prop opened at odds of minus 200 (risk $2 to net $1), with the “no” side listed at plus 175 (risk $1 to net $1.75). As always, odds are subject to change.

At those prices, the “yes” option would be a good bet if you believe there’s greater than a 67 percent chance of at least one team losing at least 13 games.

Bettors who opt for a decidedly nonscientific approach can make a pretty good case for the “yes” side, albeit one based on anecdotal evidence. Not only would a “yes” ticket on this prop have cashed in 20 of the past 21 years, but in 15 of those seasons two or more teams lost as many as 13 games — an indication the dubious “feat” is not so rare.

Last season, for example, the Lions lost 16 games and the Rams and the Chiefs each lost 14. Oddsmakers and the betting market projected those three to be losing teams, but not quite that bad. The

over/under regular-season victory total for the Lions was 6 1/2 (minus 130 on the over) in Las Vegas before the season. It was 6 1/2 (minus 125 on the over) for the Rams and 5 1/2 (minus 160 on the over) for the Chiefs.

The fact the three teams collapsed during the regular season does not necessarily mean those betting lines were “wrong” or “bad.” In fact, if they generated roughly the same amount of action on either side, then they were great lines. It’s possible that an element of randomness inherent in the NFL dictates that things will go haywire for a few teams each season — and nobody knows for sure which teams until it happens.

A similar prop at all Lucky’s properties asks whether any NFL team will win 13 or more games this season. The line opened at minus 300 on the “yes” and plus 240 on the “no.” The last time no team managed to win 13 games was 2002, when the Eagles, Packers and Buccaneers each won 12.

MMA prop

Offshore oddsmakers don’t like the prospects of mixed martial arts fighter Kimbo Slice in the 10th season of the reality-competition show “The Ultimate Fighter.”

In a proposition at the offshore gambling operation Bodog asking whether Slice will advance to the finals of “TUF,” the “no” side opened as a heavy favorite of minus 350, with the “yes” at plus 250.

Slice, a former street fighter who became popular via YouTube videos of his back-yard brawls, is one of 16 heavyweights competing on the Spike TV program.

James prop

With LeBron James facing free agency, speculation is heating up regarding where the Cleveland Cavaliers star will end up for the next NBA season.

In Las Vegas all Lucky’s sports books have posted a prop asking whether James will score one point or more for the Cavaliers during the 2010-11 season.

The odds opened at pick ’em, or minus 110 either way.

That line roughly corresponds to the odds offered at an offshore book on where James will start the season. The Cavaliers are even money on the offshore line, followed by the Knicks at plus 200 and the Nets — co-owned by rapper Jay-Z, a friend of James — at plus 350.

After the Magic knocked Cleveland out of the NBA playoffs, James offered no hints about his future, instead opting to play the relax-and-spend-time-with-my-family-before-I-decide card.