NCAA tourney field’s top seeds firmly planted

By Jeff Haney

Thursday, March 19, 2009 | 2 a.m.

Of all the conferences that have sent basketball teams to the NCAA Tournament, the Big East is expected to win the most games, collectively, in the event.

That much can be solved by inspection, as the math crowd says. The Big East, after all, has seven representatives in the tournament, tied with the Atlantic Coast Conference and the Big Ten for the top spot in the category. Consider the Big East has three teams with No. 1 seeds in Louisville, Pittsburgh and Connecticut, and it’s easy to see why expectations are high.

Yet in Las Vegas, we can quantify those expectations by attaching a specific number to them — and in this case, the number is 15 1/2. That’s the over/under on NCAA Tournament victories by Big East teams according to the Las Vegas Hilton sports book. (Wagering on this proposition closes at noon today.)

It looks like a lofty number, higher than those attached to the ACC (11), the Big Ten (7), or any other conference.

But perhaps it’s not big enough, if you examine the betting marketplace. The line on “over” 15 1/2, which opened at minus 120 (risk $1.20 to net $1), has been adjusted upward to minus 150.

An analysis of the tournament field by Las Vegas sports handicapper Joe D’Amico certainly favors the “over.”

D’Amico is predicting a championship game matchup of Pittsburgh and Louisville on April 6 — that’s 11 victories right there.

He also likes UConn to win at least three games, and Syracuse and Villanova to win at least two each. If that weren’t enough, D’Amico also sees West Virginia, a No. 6 seed, as the closest team to a live dark horse the bracket offers.

Sorry, fans of lovable underdogs. D’Amico does not see any magical mystery tournament runs by long-shot teams this year, like those put together by Davidson and George Mason in years past.

“I think the level of talent really drops off a lot after the top-seeded, top-echelon teams,” D’Amico said. “It’s appealing to fans and spectators when that happens, but I don’t see those lower-ranked teams making much progress this time.”

Even West Virginia, if the Mountaineers manage to start hot, would see their hopes crushed by Louisville if both teams advance in the Midwest regional, D’Amico said. He would make Kansas a 1 1/2-point favorite against West Virginia in a potential second-round matchup that could play almost like a “pick ’em” game.

“Maybe West Virginia ekes by Kansas, but their problem is they eventually have to face Louisville, who will be the representative of the Midwest in the Final Four,” said D’Amico (online at Vegasinsider.com). “There’s nobody in that regional who can contend with Louisville’s defense. I also like the coaching of Rick Pitino. They have a good offense, they can run, but I’ve seen them play bigger, stronger teams and stifle them defensively.”

Even though both teams are solid favorites this year, a Pitt-Louisville final would generate excitement for college basketball because both teams bring fresh faces to the sport’s elite stage, D’Amico said.

Louisville won the national championship in 1986 but has returned to the Final Four just one time since, in 2005. Pitt’s lone Final Four appearance came in 1941 — when teams had to win only one game to reach the Final Four.

D’Amico would make Pitt a 1-point favorite against Louisville using his own “power ratings.”

“It would be a phenomenal matchup,” he said. “These are two teams that haven’t been there for a while.”

A couple of other props among the wide selection at the Las Vegas Hilton touch on the chances of lowly regarded teams in the tournament:

• Will a team seeded 14, 15, or 16 win a tournament game? Yes, minus 140; no, plus 120.

• Will a No. 13-seed team win at least one game? Yes, minus 145; no, plus 125.

Pitt and North Carolina, the top seed in the South, could meet in a pivotal matchup in the national semifinals, if the tournament plays true to form. D’Amico would make Pitt a favorite of 2 to 2 1/2 points in the game. This is his personal line for handicapping purposes, not a prediction of the actual point spread posted in sports books.

“North Carolina is similar to Duke (a No. 2 seed in the East), an excellent team with a lot of pride but also vulnerable,” D’Amico said, “especially when they’re not on their home court, where they can really intimidate their opponent.”