Hurlers ripe for getting rocked

By Jeff Haney

Wednesday, May 6, 2009 | 2 a.m.

Since the publication a few years ago of the handicapping manual “Betting Baseball: A New Approach,” I have followed a statistical category that author Michael Murray calls “command rate,” a tool to analyze starting pitchers.

The formula for command rate is simple — strikeouts divided by walks — yet effective as a starting point for finding pitchers you might want to bet against.

A pitcher with a rate under 1.0 — meaning he has walked more batters than he has struck out — could be “primed for a fall,” as Murray puts it.

Only pitchers who remain viable members of their starting rotations — for now, anyway — were considered when tracking pitchers with poor command rates. Some who would have fit into the category this season if they had not been relegated to mop-up duty (paging Oliver Perez) did not make the cut.

A wide range of factors, of course, goes into handicapping baseball. In compiling a portfolio of starters you would like to fade, however, you could do a lot worse than beginning with the following list of pitchers with command rates under 1.0 this season:

• Trevor Cahill, Athletics. Although he is coming off a solid start Saturday at Seattle, Cahill has walked 18 batters and struck out only eight for a disastrous command rate of .44. He is scheduled to start against the Rangers on Thursday.

• Dana Eveland, Athletics. With 16 walks and 15 strikeouts, Eveland enters today’s game against the Rangers off a rocky start Friday at Seattle in which Oakland lost as a small favorite.

• Matt Palmer, Angels. With five walks and three strikeouts, Palmer technically belongs in this dubious crowd even though he looked strong Saturday leading the Angels past the Yankees as a heavy underdog of plus 240.

• Aaron Laffey, Indians. Scheduled to start Thursday at Boston, Laffey is 2-0 this season despite walking nine and striking out two in his past two starts, and walking 15 and striking out 10 overall.

• Brian Bannister, Royals. Despite a 1.96 ERA, Bannister has walked 10 and struck out seven heading into Thursday’s scheduled start against Seattle.

• Robert Ray, Blue Jays. In his major league debut Saturday against Baltimore, Ray ended up with a no-decision after walking four and striking out two.

• Russ Ortiz, Astros. Thursday’s scheduled start against the Cubs will be the first time for Ortiz in this category this season.

• Daniel Cabrera, Nationals. Cabrera has officially been a “fade” under this strategy in his past two outings, with Washington losing as an underdog both times. It did not help his cause that he threw four wild pitches Thursday against St. Louis.

• Mike Pelfrey, Mets. Scheduled to face the Phillies’ Jamie Moyer at home Thursday, Pelfrey has a 3-0 record despite having issued 13 walks against six strikeouts.

• Graham Taylor, Marlins. Scheduled to start at home today against the Braves, Taylor has walked nine and struck out three in 8 2/3 innings.

• Jeff Karstens, Pirates. After walking five and striking out one in his first start, Karstens has been a “bet against” pitcher in three consecutive starts under this strategy. The Pirates lost two of those three games. He is scheduled to start Friday against a wild card of sorts in Ken Takahashi of the Mets. Takahashi, 40, became the third player in the post-World War II era to make his major league debut after turning 40, joining Satchel Paige (42, 1948) and Diomedes Olivo (41, 1960).

Speaking of Satchel Paige, if Karstens and the 10 other guys on this list all win their next outings, my stomach will surely dispute me. I’ll have to lie down and pacify it with cool thoughts.