Yearbook gives readers ideas for college hoops bets

By Jeff Haney

Tuesday, Oct. 20, 2009 | 2 a.m.

Treasured by bettors for its well-researched reports on every Division I team, the annual Blue Ribbon College Basketball Yearbook has arrived at the Gambler’s Book Shop in Las Vegas (1550 E. Tropicana Ave.).

The Blue Ribbon book ($22.95, 400 pages), in its 29th season, contains no information on point spreads or betting odds. Yet it’s considered invaluable by college basketball gamblers for its evaluations of players, conferences and coaches.

We use it in part to chart possible wagers for the coming season based on situational-handicapping spots addressed by gambling analysts such as Alan Boston, David Sklansky and Larry Seidel.

Like any wagering theories, these methods, sound and sensible as they appear, are not foolproof.

To wit:

1. When a team ranked in the top 10 is favored on the road against a decent but unrated team, take the home underdog and the points. Whereas it’s just another game for the top-10 team, a victory could be a highlight of the season for the unrated team, giving it an emotional edge.

Examples from this coming season: Kansas, ranked No. 1 by Blue Ribbon, plays at Temple on Jan. 2. The Owls are coming off two consecutive Atlantic 10 championships but lost leading scorer Dionte Christmas, now trying to make the Philadelphia 76ers.

North Carolina, ranked No. 5 by Blue Ribbon, visits the College of Charleston on Jan. 4. The Cougars, a regional rival of the Tar Heels, were 26-8 last season.

This approach worked well here: Top-ranked North Carolina entered its game at UC Santa Barbara as a 19-point favorite on Nov. 21 last season, setting up a play on the Gauchos. Santa Barbara, which led by 5 points about midway through the first half, covered the number in an 84-67 loss at the Thunderdome.

But not here: Gonzaga was ranked No. 4 heading into its game at Washington State on Dec. 10, making the Cougars (then 6-2) a play getting 5 1/2 points. Gonzaga breezed, 74-52.

2. Bet against supposed home teams who are playing in their home city but not on their usual home court. Games in these arenas often play out more like those at neutral sites, potentially creating a couple of extra points in the spread for the visiting team.

Example from this coming season: Navy visits Washington, D.C., to face George Washington on Dec. 6 — but at the Verizon Center, not the Charles E. Smith Center.

This approach worked well here: On Jan. 5, 2008, Maryland played Charlotte at the Charlotte Bobcats Arena rather than the Halton Arena. A 1-point underdog, the Terrapins won 76-72.

But not here: St. John’s went 2-1 against the point spread against Marist, Virginia Tech and Duke last season in games played at Madison Square Garden rather than Carnesecca Arena.

3. Bet on big (let’s say double-digit) home underdogs early in conference play. Coaches are loath to run up the score on familiar foes they might see again soon. Later in conference play, though, talent wins out against weaker opponents who simply cannot keep up.

Example from this coming season: Villanova, ranked No. 4 by Blue Ribbon, visits Rutgers (2-16 in the Big East last season) on Jan. 20.

This approach worked well here: Oregon covered a 10 1/2-point spread against visiting UCLA on Jan. 4, losing 83-74.

But not here: South Florida let its backers down Jan. 7, losing 71-57 to visiting Louisville as an 11-point underdog.

4. After conference play has begun, bet on the underdog against a good team that’s playing a “one-off” nonconference game before returning to the conference schedule.

Example from this coming season: Duke hosts Tulsa of Conference USA on Feb. 25 before returning to its Atlantic Coast Conference schedule, setting up a possible play on the Golden Hurricane.

This approach worked well here: Xavier, a 2 1/2-point underdog, beat LSU outright, 80-70, on Jan. 24. Michigan covered a 16 1/2-point spread against Connecticut, losing 69-61 on Feb. 7.

But not here: Alabama-Birmingham got the job done against Louisiana-Lafayette on Jan. 19, winning 97-62 as a 16-point favorite.

SEC title game

In college football, Florida has been installed as a 3-point favorite against Alabama in the Southeastern Conference championship game Dec. 5 at the Georgia Dome, according to odds at all Lucky’s sports books in Nevada.

Florida (6-0, 4-0 SEC) leads the conference’s East division, with Alabama (7-0, 4-0) on top in the West. If they don’t meet in the title game, bets will be refunded.

Golf slam

Angel Cabrera, the Masters champion, and Stewart Cink, the British Open winner, opened as 9-4 co-favorites to win the PGA Grand Slam of Golf set for today and Wednesday at the Port Royal Course in Southampton, Bermuda. The event pits the year’s major champions against each other.

Lucas Glover (U.S. Open) opened at 11-4, according to odds at the Las Vegas Hilton sports book, with Y.E. Yang (PGA Championship) at 3-1.