UNLV is poised to avoid the letdown that has marked past few Selection Sundays

By Taylor Bern

Published Sunday, March 11, 2012 | 3 a.m.

Updated Sunday, March 11, 2012 | 1:33 p.m.

UNLV basketball fans probably have a very familiar feeling in the pit of their stomachs today. The high hopes after a strong start to the season. The late-season losses. The thoughts of a top 6 or 7 seed as they flip on CBS in the afternoon for Selection Sunday.

The script played out similarly in UNLV’s past three NCAA Tournament seasons, and those seeding dreams were dashed by banishment to the 8-9 slot, out of which UNLV is 1-3 since 2007. This time around, the Rebels (26-8) have good reason to be more optimistic, and it starts with their game of the year (thus far) in November.

“To beat a team that’s going to be a No. 1 seed on a neutral floor is a huge deal,” UNLV coach Dave Rice said.

Taking down then-No. 1 North Carolina at the Orleans Arena gave the Rebels a national profile that has helped them weather their road difficulties. And the fact that the Tar Heels, who lost in today’s ACC tournament championship, are lined up for a top seed only strengthens the Rebels’ case.

UNLV’s resume reads thusly: No. 15 RPI, No. 37 SOS, 5-6 v. Top 50 teams, 4-1 v. 51-100, 7-1 v. 101-200 and 8-0 v. 201-plus.

The two most important numbers there are in RPI, which the selection committee often favors to a fault, and no losses against the bottom feeders. When it comes to seeding the field, the absence of a bad loss can be just as important as the presence of a good win.

The one that was most in UNLV’s control is strength of schedule, and Rice said he believes the Rebels did a good job on that front by putting tough teams on the slate.

“We’re always reminded that one of the major factors that the committee looks at is strength of schedule, and we’ve certainly played a strong schedule,” Rice said.

UNLV’s schedule ranks one behind Kentucky, which is all but assured of the overall No. 1 seed despite losing in today’s SEC tournament final.

Asked what seed he thought UNLV could end up with, Rice wouldn’t speculate.

“I know everything about our numbers, but I just don’t know enough about other teams’ numbers,” Rice said.

All of the Rebels’ numbers add up to what looks to be a 6 or 7 seed, and the most likely scenario as of Sunday afternoon seems to be a 7 in Omaha. According to a compilation of 59 bracket projections across the web on bracketfacts.com, UNLV is a 6 with an average ranking of 5.97. That was before New Mexico defeated San Diego State in the Mountain West tournament final. UNLV is likely to miss out on the 6 line if only because the committee wants to bump the Rebels in favor of the Lobos and Aztecs, who both have lower computer numbers but finished higher and advanced further in the conference tournament than UNLV.

The three major bracketologists — CBS, SI and ESPN — each moved the Rebels from a 6 on Saturday night to a 7 on Sunday.

That's not a good trend, but those afraid of a drop from 6 to 8 need only look at the resumes at some of teams projected on the 8-line: Cincinnati (RPI 40, SOS 75), Iowa State (33, 39), Kansas State (43, 53) and St. Louis (29, 95). Only two of those teams have more top-50 wins and two of them have at least one bottom-200 loss. It would be difficult to envision any of those teams jumping UNLV, and the case for the schools slated for 9s or lower get even sketchier.

If you started reading this convinced that UNLV will get sent to the 8-9, then you probably still think that way. You can’t ignore that feeling.

The rest of you should know that there’s about an equally slim chance that the Rebels get a 5 as they do an 8.

So as you settle in for the show, whether you’re at home or the Mack to watch with the coaches and players, take a deep breath and know that the numbers are on your side.

Taylor Bern can be reached at 948-7844 or [email protected]. Follow Taylor on Twitter at twitter.com/taylorbern.