Bern’s-Eye View: Forecasting Mountain West Basketball Week 8

By Taylor Bern

Wednesday, Dec. 31, 2014 | 1:37 p.m.

The Forecast has been on hiatus on the website for a while so hopefully you’ve been following along at my Twitter account, @TaylorBern, where I’ve posted every non-UNLV pick against the spread. The Rebels picks still appear in the gameday live blog, and all put together I’ve gone 59-47-1 on every posted Mountain West game entering league play.

Now 55.1 percent isn’t bad, but there’s considerable room for improvement. Just like 10 of the Mountain West’s 11 teams that begin league play today I think each game, or pick in my case, is a little more important from here on out.

The conference title appears to be pretty open, with No. 24 Colorado State (13-0), San Diego State (10-3), Wyoming (11-2) and UNLV (9-3) a cut above the rest of the league. The winner figures to come out of that foursome, but with the league’s tempo slowed to a crawl throughout the league there are going to be fewer possessions in a lot of games, and that tends to benefit the underdog.

UNR has New Year’s Eve off but the rest of the Mountain West is in action tonight, and while UNLV-Wyoming is the only really intriguing game on paper, there could be some surprises. Here are the picks:

TODAY

Air Force (plus-13.5) at San Diego State

2 p.m., ESPN3

• The Aztecs are 2-3 against the spread as double-digit favorites. That’s not terrible, but I think it will trend down considerably in conference play.

Pick: Air Force — Win

Fresno State (plus-9.5) at New Mexico

4 p.m., ESPN3

• The Bulldogs went from some people’s dark horse pick in the league (again) to something close to a disaster. This year’s Lobos don’t often blow teams out so it’s a little risky but I’ll roll with the home team.

Pick: New Mexico — Win

Boise State (plus-8) at No. 24 Colorado State

6 p.m., Root Sports/Mountain West Network

• I’m pretty sure I’m staying at the same Fort Collins hotel as Boise State, and I can confirm that the hotel gym is unkind to the talls. Thus, the Broncos will be soft heading into this game.

Seriously though, Boise State has looked downright awful in some recent games, and with senior Anthony Drmic now out for the season there are no major reinforcements coming. Meanwhile, Colorado State might be the league’s best team.

Pick: Colorado State

San Jose State (plus-19) at Utah State

6 p.m., Mountain West Network

• I have no intention of switching up my strategy on San Jose State games until I hit a really bad losing streak. Here’s the strategy, and it’s kind of advanced so try to stay with me:

Step One: Consider betting on San Jose State

Step Two: Enjoy a hearty chuckle

Step Three: Bet the other side

Pick: Utah State

Season: 59-47-1

Taylor Bern can be reached at 948-7844 or [email protected]. Follow Taylor on Twitter at twitter.com/taylorbern.