Bern’s-Eye View: Forecasting Mountain West Basketball Week 1

By Taylor Bern

Published Friday, Nov. 14, 2014 | 2:30 p.m.

Updated Saturday, Nov. 15, 2014 | 12:07 a.m.

This isn’t the best time of year, but I’ll be damned if it isn’t close.

While the rest of the country fills my Twitter timeline with photos of first snows, I can sit back in shorts and look at a betting board suddenly filled with college basketball. The NCAA Tournament might be King to me (and many others) but I love the process of getting there, too.

That process starts today with the tip-off to the 2014-15 college basketball season and with that, I kick off a new feature that’s really not new if you’ve been keeping up with my Mountain West football picks.

Basketball betting operates a lot differently than football, which has the number on the board all week. So here’s the plan: I will write this column every Friday with picks for all available games. The rest of the picks will go out daily on Twitter, so follow along if you don’t already @TaylorBern.

The goal is simple: Pick every single game involving a Mountain West team and come out ahead on the other side. That’s it. I might end up adding a second weekly column, especially once we get into league play and the teams start to get into the same gameday schedules.

Before we get going, I want to encourage everyone to reach out in the comments or on Twitter if you have any ideas or tweaks for this space. Want me to indicate which games I would actually bet? Other ideas?

Alright, enough rambling. Let’s (watch other people) play ball:

Note: UNLV picks will appear in the live blog on the day of games.

FRIDAY

Boise State (minus-3) vs. San Diego (in Los Angeles)

3:30 p.m., LMULions.com

• Neutral game for the Broncos to start off the season. Obviously I could be wrong, but this number feels several points too low.

Pick: Boise State — Win

Bethesda (plus-20) at San Jose State

5 p.m., Mountain West Network

• This line is completely made up because it’s not on the board and I can’t even figure out at what level Bethesda plays. Total shot in the dark.

Pick: San Jose State — Win

Air Force (plus-5) at Army

5 p.m., Patriot League Network

• Wouldn’t be shocked to see the Falcons win straight up, so I’ll take the points.

Pick: Air Force — Loss

Weber State (plus-1.5) at Utah State

6 p.m., Mountain West Network

• This line moved down a bit and I’m a little surprised it’s not a pick. Give me Weber State for the win.

Pick: Weber State — Loss

Fresno State (plus-1) at Pepperdine

7 p.m., PepperdineSports.com

• The Bulldogs will be without guard Cezar Guerrero (13.1 ppg, 3.5 apg last year) until at least next week as he sorts out an eligibility concern. That absence factored into this line flipping and making the Bulldogs a short dog. I’ll stick with the road team.

Pick: Fresno State — Loss

Cal State Northridge (plus-16.5) at San Diego State

7 p.m., Mountain West Network

• Feels like too big a number as the Aztecs break in a new point guard, freshman Trey Kell.

Pick: Cal State Northridge — Loss

Idaho State (plus-19) at New Mexico

7 p.m., Root Sports/Mountain West Network

• Lobos shouldn’t have an issue, though 19 is a little much for me. If it is a struggle, then buckle in for some fun overreaction in Albuquerque.

Pick: Idaho State — Loss

SATURDAY

Cal Poly (plus-4.5) at UNR

3 p.m., Mountain West Network

• Could be an ugly year for coach David Carter’s squad.

Pick: Cal Poly — Loss

Boise State (minus-5.5) at Loyola Marymount

5 p.m., LMULions.com

• Special assistant Max Good came over to UNLV after leading Loyola Marymount for six years. Injuries were his biggest problem, but the cupboard is now pretty bare.

Pick: Boise State — Win

Montana (plus-15) at Colorado State

7 p.m., Root Sports/Mountain West Network

• Going to be some growing pains up in Fort Collins, but I’ll take the Rams to come out strong.

Pick: Colorado State — Win

Other game Saturday: Air Force vs. VMI/Citadel (TBA)

Games Sunday: Portland at San Jose State, Northern Colorado at Wyoming, Utah State at Illinois State, Cal State Fullerton at New Mexico

Season: 0-0

Taylor Bern can be reached at 948-7844 or [email protected]. Follow Taylor on Twitter at twitter.com/taylorbern.