What Bill Clinton’s visit to Las Vegas says about Nevada in 2014 election

By Amber Phillips

Tuesday, Oct. 28, 2014 | 2 a.m.

Former President Bill Clinton is coming to Las Vegas today in an attempt to energize Nevada Democrats for the Nov. 4 election, but the high-profile visit by the party's campaigner-in-chief belies trouble for the party.

Across the country, Republicans are expected to win elections in the last midterm of an unpopular Democratic president. That momentum appears to have swept Nevada as well.

Since early voting began Oct. 18, Republicans have been showing up to the polls in numbers that have surprised insiders in their own party.

In Democratic-dominated Clark County, Republicans have about a 1,400-vote lead. That bolsters their 9,000-vote lead in the state's Republican-dominated rural counties.

"You have to look back to the '90s to find early voting numbers that have looked this good for Republicans," said Scott Scheid, the campaign manager for Assemblyman Cresent Hardy.

Hardy is riding this wave in hopes of upsetting Democratic Rep. Steven Horsford to represent North Las Vegas and central Nevada in Congress.

Horsford's re-election originally appeared as a lock against gaffe-prone Hardy. But Clinton's visit underscores that Democrats are now worried about some of their once-safest seats.

Clinton is scheduled to speak at the Democrats' event this afternoon at Springs Preserve where he'll stump for ​Horsford as well as statewide candidates Ross Miller for attorney general, Kate Marshall for secretary of state and Lucy Flores for lieutenant governor.

Making matters worse for Democrats is a Republican outside group that made a surprise big-bucks play last week in the sleepy race to unseat Horsford.

Crossroads GPS, a Republican PAC affiliated with former President George W. Bush adviser Karl Rove, is spending $822,000 on TV ads aimed at Horsford. The group may have been motivated by poor numbers for Democrats and a national wave of Republican support or it could have received a donation earmarked for the race. Crossroads GPS is a nonprofit advocacy group that does not have to disclose its donors under federal campaign law.

Nevada Democrats are trying to find a silver lining to all this bad news: Clinton has proven to be exceptionally good at motivating voters. And the Rove ad ties Horsford to President Barack Obama, which could actually motivate Democrats to get to the polls. Obama is still popular among minorities in North Las Vegas who carried Horsford to his first victory in 2012.

What's more, Washington Democrats are now throwing money and star power into the race to boost Horsford. Clinton may not be the only national lawmaker to stop by Las Vegas this week, and Horsford has raised more than $125,000 since the Rove ad buy; an astounding amount of money this late in the game.

But even with the Clinton visit, Nevada Republicans are riding into Election Day pretty confident. Despite Democrats' doubled-down efforts to mobilize voters, the party showed poor numbers over the weekend.

Of the 303,000 total voters in the 4th District, about 130,000 are registered Democrats, about 97,000 Republicans and about 70,000 Independents and nonpartisans, according to the Nevada Secretary of State.

But Republicans have out-voted Democrats 44 percent to 39 percent in Horsford's district as of Friday, according to data provided by Hardy's campaign. That trend is even holding for the district's locations in Clark County, where Republicans are just 336 votes behind Democrats. By contrast, Horsford won Clark County in 2012 by a 29,000-vote margin. It's a trend that's carrying across the state.

Clinton's arrival is just the latest example of Republicans and Democrats throwing everything they can in this dash to the finish line. Nevadans will have to wait until Nov. 5 to see how everything lands.