Money talks in mayoral, city council races

By Conor Shine

Monday, April 6, 2015 | 2 a.m.

Running a campaign for a municipal election is equal parts art and science.

You have to craft a message that’s simple and understandable yet resonates with voters enough that they remember it at the ballot box. You have to be able to use data and statistics to target the fraction of voters, generally 10 to 20 percent, who actually cast ballots.

But more than anything, races are about money.

“You could be the greatest candidate in the world, but without money, nobody would know it,” said Bradley Mayer, one of two political consultants helping Mayor Carolyn Goodman bid for a second term.

Since the start of the year, more than $1 million has been spent by candidates running in eight local city council races and one mayoral race, a figure that will continue to grow as the April 7 primary nears. Most of the spending has come from incumbents, who hold a fundraising advantage that UNLV political scientist David Damore credits to a “self-fulfilling prophecy.”

“Money goes to candidates people think are going to win,” Damore said. “You want to be seen as supporting the winner.”

A big campaign war chest helps candidates in many ways, one of the most important being the ability to reach voters. Goodman and her main opponent, City Councilman Stavros Anthony, both have spent hundreds of thousands of dollars on television ads, signs, billboards and mailers to blanket Las Vegas with their names and faces.

While Goodman and Anthony hired teams of paid canvassers to knock on doors and work neighborhoods, candidates without much cash must rely on their own two feet and help from friends and family.

“It’s almost a do-it-yourself type deal,” said Phil Cory, who through the March reporting deadline had raised $4,600, including a $1,500 loan, vying for the Las Vegas mayor’s seat.

Cory’s campaign has consisted mostly of walking neighborhoods with volunteers and waving signs in front of polling locations, although he has sprung for several billboards in the city.

Well-funded candidates also can hire professionals to fundraise, strategize, organize volunteers, poll and design advertisements.

The success of a campaign often comes down to which candidate can better target voters who will turn out on Election Day. Big-money operations use more advanced techniques to combine voter files and other data to locate and motivate supporters.

In Las Vegas, there are almost 250,000 registered voters, but only about 50,000 likely will cast a ballot.

City council races have even lower turnout, with many contests decided by only a few hundred votes. That opens the door for less-funded challengers who run a strong ground game knocking on doors and meeting constituents.

Even then, it’s an uphill battle. Of 32 Southern Nevada city council and mayoral races since 2007, the candidate who spent the most money won all but two contests.

Anthony could defy that trend in this year’s mayor’s race. He has amassed just $309,000 through mid-March compared with Goodman’s $663,000, but he has a tailor-made election issue in the city’s failed $200 million soccer stadium plan, which Goodman supported.

“This race has been highly unusual because we had a very high-profile issue,” said Lisa Mayo-Deriso, one of Anthony’s campaign managers. “That certainly helps with getting people aware of the race.”

Whether it will be enough remains to be seen. Goodman’s fundraising advantage has helped her dominate the airwaves, with four times as many commercials as Anthony.