Vegas pick’em: NFL Week 15 winners against the spread

By Case Keefer (contact)

Thursday, Dec. 12, 2019 | 2 a.m.

Handicapping the final few weeks of the NFL regular season can get tricky, with everything from coaching changes to a team's motivation to play spoiler factoring into bettors' equations.

It's not uncommon for some gamblers, therefore, to pack it up until the playoffs or at least tone their volume down especially if they have a profit to protect on the year.

Should I take that route then with a strong regular-season secured — this column is 35-19-1 on plays — if I stop now? Heck no.

There are still opportunities to exploit from a betting perspective the final three full weeks of NFL action, and I intend to do my best to find them. No great reward exists without risk. Let's keep digging through the betting board.

Read below for picks on every Week 15 game, separated into three confidence categories. Lines are the best currently available on the chosen side in Las Vegas. The overall record for the year stands at 117-89-2.

Plays (35-19-1)

Chicago Bears plus-4.5 at Green Bay Packers A reckoning is coming for the Packers, which have wholly overachieved with a 10-3 straight-up record. Their Pythagorean expectation paints them closer to a 7-5 team. The last time Green Bay faced a defense as strong as Chicago's it was blown out in a 37-8 loss at San Francisco.

Arizona Cardinals plus-2.5 vs. Cleveland Browns The Cardinals played decently in last week's 23-17 loss to the Steelers, giving themselves a chance to win in the fourth quarter. Pittsburgh has been better than Cleveland by any measure — the Steelers are at a plus-17 point differential to the year to the Browns' minus-18 — so there's no reason the Cardinals should be getting the same amount of points in back-to-back weeks at home versus a lesser team.

Pittsburgh Steelers minus-2 vs. Buffalo Bills Let's keep riding the Duck(s) for a third straight week. With Duck Hodges at quarterback, the Steelers have an average offense to go with their outstanding defense and make for an above-average overall product. An above-average team should lay at least a field goal at home against Buffalo, which has feasted on the NFL's weakest schedule.

Dallas Cowboys plus-1 vs. Los Angeles Rams Making one last attempt to buy low on Dallas, which still carries a statistical profile that belies its 6-7 straight-up record. The Cowboys are first in the NFL on offense with 6.5 yards per play and third in the NFC in point differential at plus-67.

Leans (39-34)

Tennessee Titans minus-3 vs. Houston Texans Houston money is threatening to push this spread below a field goal, which might elevate it to a play. The teams are about even on offense — each averages 5.9 yards per play — but the Titans are far better on defense — giving up only 4 yards per play to the Texans' 4.5 yards per play.

Philadelphia Eagles minus-4.5 at Washington Redskins Don't let the Redskins' three-game covering streak fool you: This is still one of the very worst teams in the NFL. Their odds have gradually drifted into a respectable range, which is a mistake. Their run-heavy attack won't work against an Eagles' defense giving up only 4.5 yards per rushing attempt.

Baltimore Ravens minus-14.5 vs. New York Jets I'm going to need an irrefutably inflated line to bet against the Ravens right now. This is not an irrefutably inflated line, especially not with the Jets sporting the longest injury list in the NFL and potentially revolting against its coaching staff.

Guesses (43-36-1)

Cincinnati Bengals plus-10 vs. New England Patriots The Patriots have slipped to 25^th in the NFL offensively in gaining only 5.1 yards per play. They have a serious problem on their hands that isn't going to just disappear via the right motivational angle or bottom feeder matchup, a problem that should preclude them from laying double digits on the road.

Kansas City Chiefs minus-9.5 vs. Denver Broncos Patrick Mahomes' health is certainly a concern, but reports indicate his injured hand is healing up and he'll be close to 100 percent on Sunday, which would make this a short line. The Broncos got an identical amount of points last week on the road at the Texans, a team not nearly as efficient as the Chiefs.

San Francisco 49ers minus-10.5 vs. Atlanta Falcons It's no wonder the 49ers are tied for the best against the spread record in the NFL at 9-4 with the way the market continues to undervalue them. They're among the best teams in the league and should be giving closer to two touchdowns against one of the worst.

Carolina Panthers plus-6 vs. Seattle Seahawks Having gone 0-5 straight-up, 1-4 against the spread in its last five games, Carolina is tough to back right now, but that's making it available at a value price. Seattle was only a 4.5-point favorite in this game on last week's lookahead line.

Minnesota Vikings minus-2.5 at Los Angeles Chargers Taking a leap of faith with the Vikings even though this line looks high if anything — I made it minus-1.5 initially. I think Minnesota could be a real threat in the NFC Playoffs, but it can't afford any more losses to make sure it gets there. Luckily, the Chargers typically find ways to cripple themselves.

Oakland Raiders minus-6.5 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Number looks exactly right, but it shouldn't be a surprise if the Raiders go all out to snag a win in their final game in Oakland. Jacksonville hasn't gone all out for anything in more than a month, looking so lethargic that its effort level must be questioned.

Indianapolis Colts plus-9 at New Orleans Saints The Saints' injury report became well-populated out of last week's 48-46 loss to the 49ers as 2-point favorites, especially in the trenches. Question marks up front can make for a strong deterrent from laying close to double digits.

Miami Dolphins plus-3.5 at New York Giants This is just executing the textbook rule of grabbing the underdog at a line of 3.5 points. It's almost always excruciating to lay 3.5 points, let alone with one of the worst teams in the NFL on a short week off of an overtime loss on Monday Night Football.

Detroit Lions plus-3.5 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Ditto to the last pick. Buccaneers quarterback Jameis Winton is expected to play but hasn't thrown yet this week, so it's hard to know what to expect out of him and the drop-off to current backup Ryan Griffin is stark.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.