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October 25, 2014

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Vegas Play of the Day: Louisiana Tech at Florida State

The combined Play of the Day record is finally over .500.

Not proud that it took this long, and there’s still a long way to go before the next frontier of profitability, but it’s a step. We’ll continue to plod along using the South Point odds and a starting bankroll of $10,000 each.

Louisiana Tech at Florida State under 150: $330 to win $300

Florida State should never be involved in a game where the total is this high.

The Seminoles have struggled to contain their offense’s penchant for sudden disappearances all season. Hence why they’ve been “under” team, and only had two totals higher this one.

In both cases — a 60-55 win over UMass and an 85-67 victory at VCU — the game fell under. It’s more common to find an over/under in the higher reaches with Louisiana Tech.

Sports books have posted totals of more than 150 points in nine of the Bulldogs’ games this year, and the over has still managed to go 6-3 in the contests. But none of those opponents had a defense near as reliable as Florida State's.

Louisiana Tech will try to push the pace and get easy baskets in transition, but Florida State is up to the task of slowing the strategy. The Bulldogs can defend in their own right, just squeezing into the top 25 in Ken Pomeroy’s defensive efficiency metric.

The total seems artificially inflated after Florida State had its best offensive game of the year in a 101-90 victory over Georgetown in the last round of the NIT. Louisiana Tech similarly zoomed in a 79-71 win at Georgia to post the fourth over in its last five games.

With a trip to Madison Square Garden for the NIT’s Final Four on the line, both teams should be on their best behavior tonight. They’ll bear down and keep their opponent from scoring enough to eclipse a combined 150 points.

Standings: Bern (16-11, $10,890), Keefer (13-12, $9,597), Brewer (9-14-3, $6,510)

Case Keefer can be reached at 948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

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