Vegas Play of the Day: Arkansas State at Texas State

By Case Keefer (contact)

Thursday, Nov. 20, 2014 | 1:11 p.m.

The betting board is packed on a terrific sports night, leaving plenty of options for which game to take in the South Point-lined Play of the Day.

Somehow, I like none of them. So instead of forcing something as usual — part of the reason for the disintegration of my $10,000 starting bankroll — I’ll tread lightly with a smaller-sized play.

Texas State plus-6.5 vs. Arkansas State: $275 to win $250

Texas State is at an admitted talent disadvantage. The Red Wolves have the better players, so why possibly pick the Bobcats?

Well, they have everything else going in their favor. Texas State is at home for Senior Night with a veteran-laden team that’s playing its best with the season winding down.

Although the Bobcats have lost two straight, they were both heartbreakers that could have gone the other way with a couple different bounces. They covered in both contests, losing 24-20 to South Alabama as a 6-point underdog after a 28-24 setback to Georgia Southern as 12-point underdogs, as part of a four game against the spread winning streak.

Arkansas State hasn’t played as hot recently in failing to cover in three of its last four games. Last week’s 37-32 loss to Appalachian State at home as 15-point favorites was particularly glaring.

It’s hard to tell how a team will respond to that type of humiliation — whether they will rally to improve or languish feeling lesser. Texas State looks more trustworthy, with a more disciplined and better-coached team.

Coach Dennis Franchione has won to at least some extent at every stop of his 30-year career. With only a game against feeble Georgia State left after tonight, Franchione has a fantastic chance to take the Bobcats to their first bowl if they can win tonight.

Standings: Bern (54-48-1, $11,286), Keefer (47-57-1, $6,581), Brewer (46-55-3, $3,105)

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.