College football by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of week 6

By Case Keefer (contact)

Friday, Oct. 3, 2014 | 11:30 a.m.

The SEC finally begins to primarily feast on its own this weekend.

The rest of the college football world must be relieved that the bulk of non-conference play has concluded. As has come to be expected, the SEC ran roughshod over its opposition from other leagues this year.

The 14 SEC teams have combined to go 34-3 against other conferences so far this season. Perhaps even more impressive is its 23-14 mark against the spread in non-conference play.

The stature of programs like Alabama, Auburn and LSU can typically lead to inflated point spreads, but nothing could stop the SEC from cashing at an astounding clip at the betting window.

It edged the Big 12, which went an equally impressive 18-11 against the spread, for the most profitable league to bet on in the non-conference. But the Big 12 sits at just 22-7 straight-up in the non-conference as virtue of going 1-3 against the SEC.

In the last eight years, the SEC sits at 250-230-7 against the spread in non-conference play — a highly impressive clip given the large sample size.

Now comes the cannibalization, and it starts with quite the buffet of games Saturday. Football Outsiders’ F/+ ratings — the preeminent advanced-statistical rankings for college football — has six SEC teams in the nation’s top 11.

All six play in games against each other during week 6. Football Outsiders’ No. 1 Alabama gives No. 5 Ole Miss six points on the road in the headliner.

But No. 7 Mississippi State and No. 11 Texas A&M also tangle in a near pick’em before No. 8 Auburn lays a touchdown at home against No. 10 LSU.

All three games are easily within the 10 biggest of the week, meaning a breakdown and pick is provided in the space below. Talking Points went 6-4 last week to bring the season record to 25-24-1.

Picking all the biggest games with no filter is an unprofitable strategy, so we’re just aiming for a .500 record on the year.

Check below for this week’s college football by the odds preview.

• 

  Texas A&M plus-1.5 at Mississippi State, over/under: 51; 9 a.m., ESPN

  The betting line on this game is as well traveled as a meandering carny.

  Mississippi State posted as a 3-point favorite over the summer before Texas A&M reopened as a 1.5-point favorite last week. Immediate money came in on the underdog to push the Bulldogs to minus-2.5 before resistance sent the spread spiraling slightly back downwards.

  The polarization of opinions makes sense. Both teams have provided thrills to start the season.

  Outright road upsets of South Carolina and LSU for Texas A&M and Mississippi State, respectively, have shown betters these programs aren’t fielding the same rickety teams as past years.

  The two dual-threat quarterbacks, Texas A&Ms Kenny Hill and Mississippi State’s Dak Prescott, have conducted the wildest rides, but both offenses were fine-tuned last year. More significant upgrades have occurred on defense, where both teams rank in the top 15 in Football Outsiders’ F/+ ratings a year removed from plunging toward the bottom of most SEC statistical categories.

  Mississippi State remains mediocre against the pass, however, which could spell trouble against Hill, who’s third in the nation with 1,745 passing yards. Texas A&M is lousy versus the run, not ideal going against Prescott and running back Josh Robinson who have combined to rush for more than seven yards per carry.

  Pick: Mississippi State minus-1.5 The better team at home coming off of a bye week — all signs point toward the Bulldogs.

• 

  Florida plus-3 at Tennessee, over/under: 55; 9 a.m., SEC Network

  Anyone who bemoans a lack of turnover at the top of the college football landscape needs to wake up early enough to watch this once vital rivalry — if they can find it on the television.

  A decade ago, imagining Florida vs. Tennessee as anything but one of the biggest games of the year was far-fetched. Now, the two teams are relegated to secondary programming with at least three bigger games in their own conference on a single Saturday alone.

  Tennessee — 7-9 straight-up and against the spread since last year — remains in rebuilding mode under second-year coach Butch Jones, while Florida is about to take a full-fledged dive into the same waters. Coach Will Muschamp is fighting against the Gators — 4-10-1 against the spread, 6-9 straight-up dating back to the start of last year — swallowing his coaching life whole.

  He’ll want a slower paced to give his team the best chance to win. Jones will look for the opposite.

  The Gators have rushed effectively with running backs Matt Jones and Kelvin Taylor, while the Volunteers’ aerial attack seems to be on the rise with quarterback Justin Worley and star receiver Marquez North.

  Pick: Florida plus-3 Florida was a 4.5-point favorite in this spot over the summer, and even though Tennessee has played better to this point, it hasn’t done enough to justify a 7.5-point swing.

• 

  Alabama plus-6.5 at Ole Miss; over/under: 51; 12:30 p.m. CBS

  The betting consensus seems to suggest ESPN Gameday should look elsewhere and that the uninhibited hype infecting Oxford, Miss., should cease.

  The popular perception is that this game isn’t as close as advertised. Alabama should roll.

  Four out of every five tickets are on the Crimson Tide so far this week, moving the spread from its opener of minus-4 all the way as high as minus-7 in some shops.

  Alabama has beaten Ole Miss 10 straight years, including by at least two touchdowns in each of the last five. But Nick Saban is just 3-4 against the spread versus Ole Miss since becoming Alabama’s coach.

  This year’s Rebels are different, though. They’re in the top five nationally in giving up only 3.6 yards per play.

  Safeties Cody Prewitt and Trae Elston, along with linebackers Deterrian Shackelford and C.J. Johnson, may give Ole Miss the best defense in the nation. Alabama isn’t far behind with standouts at every level, including safety Landon Collins and linebacker Trey DePriest.

  Ole Miss’ offensive woes are more pronounced with the inconsistency of third-year starting quarterback Bo Wallace. But it’s worth noting negative murmurs were leaking out of Alabama just three weeks ago before senior quarterback Blake Sims had a breakout game with 445 yards and four touchdowns against Florida.

  At least one prominent ratings metric thinks this is a matchup between the two best teams in the nation. Football Outsiders’ S&P — one half of the statistical analysis site’s official F/+ ratings — has Alabama at No. 1 and Ole Miss at No. 2.

  Pick: Under 51 points I typically try to stick with sides in this space, but here’s the perfect way to bet this game — backing the Rebels defense but not having to rely on their offense.

• 

  Oklahoma minus-5.5 at TCU, over/under: 565; 12:30 p.m., Fox

  As far as betting perfection goes, it doesn’t get any closer than the Sooners and the Horned Frogs through one month of the season.

  TCU is a spotless 3-0 against the spread and straight-up after a season where it only cashed in four of 12 games. Oklahoma is 4-0 straight-up and a few seconds away from the same record against the spread.

  Louisiana Tech scored in the final minute of the team’s first game to cover plus-34 in a 48-12 loss.

  The betting public is more impressed with Oklahoma’s start as the Sooners have solidified buzz of being a contender for the inaugural four-team playoff. They’ve drawn lopsided action for their trip to Forth Worth, Texas, yet the line has still gone down a half-point at most sports books.

  That means the bigger bets are on TCU. And why not?

  Although Oklahoma holds a noticeable talent edge on defense with pass-rushers like Eric Striker and Charles Tapper, the offensive advantage could go either way. TCU quarterback Trevone Boykin has actually outplayed more heralded Oklahoma counterpart Trevor Knight to this point of the season.

  Boykin and running back B.J. Catalon form the nation’s most efficient running game, according to Football Outsiders’ S&P ratings.

  The Horned Frogs have nearly upset the Sooners in two straight seasons, narrowly falling by a touchdown in 2012 before a field goal last year.

  Pick: TCU plus-5.5 Confidently taking the Horned Frogs at anything more than a field goal.

• 

  Stanford minus-1.5 at Notre Dame; over/under: 44.5; 12:30 p.m., NBC

  Not many, if any, teams can claim facing a tougher early season schedule than Stanford.

  The Cardinal play in their third game with a single-digit spread in South Bend, Ind., Saturday afternoon. Although they’ve failed to cover in both previous contests, Stanford managed to escape Washington with a 20-13 victory as 7.5-point favorites.

  The defense kept opponent offense’s points-per-game average to less than a touchdown, as one of Washington’s scores came on a fumble recovery. The Cardinal have been tougher to score on than any team in the nation.

  But if any team has the antidote, it might be Notre Dame. The Irish offense, much like the Cardinal defense, ranks near the top of the charts in several categories.

  With 1,142 yards and 11 touchdowns to two interceptions, Everett Golson has made sure Notre Dame has scored at least 30 points in every game. Of course, Notre Dame has faced a simpler route with four of five games featuring it favored by double digits.

  And the one exception was a 31-0 victory over Michigan as a 4-point favorite with a spread that looks criminally low now.

  Pick: Stanford minus-1.5 Cardinal have endured terrible luck with turnovers and an inability to score in the red zone. That should start to turn around.

• 

  LSU plus-8 at Auburn, over/under: 57.5; 4 p.m., ESPN

  Auburn receiver Quan Bray told the Associated Press that “it’s not going to be hard” to repeat as SEC champions this week.

  The odds would caution that Bray is in for a rude awakening. It’s conceivable, perhaps even likely, that seven of the Tigers’ final eight games will feature point spreads of less than double digits, including a couple where they’re the underdogs.

  Saturday’s showdown with LSU might actually fall as one of the easiest games remaining, according to the point spread — and it’s against a team that blew out Auburn 35-21 last year.

  Auburn did manage to cover the plus-17 point spread — remember this was way back before anyone thought they had the most remote chance at a national championship berth — as part of its 8-1 against-the-spread run through the SEC in coach Gus Malzahn’s first year.

  Malzahn’s Tigers have already matched their total number of spread losses from 2013 this season, with two straight non-covers against Kansas State and Louisiana Tech. LSU is looking for its second winning record against the spread in coach Les Miles’ 10 years at the helm.

  The responsibility will fall to freshman quarterback Brandon Harris, who seems to have overtaken the job from ineffective sophomore Anthony Jennings.

  Auburn was the team with something to prove in this matchup last year. Now it’s LSU.

  Pick: LSU plus-8 Far from one of my more confident picks, but I think it’s going to be profitable to bet against Auburn, which is over elevated in the ratings, for a while.

• 

  Arizona State plus-12.5 at USC, over/under: 67.5; 4:30 p.m., Fox

  Ask someone which team has given USC the biggest headaches over recent years, and it’s unlikely Arizona State will come up until the fifth or sixth guess.

  The Sun Devils can make a case, however, especially from a betting perspective. In addition to downing the Trojans in two of the last three years, the Sun Devils have covered in this now-annual division game in seven of the last nine meetings.

  Arizona State’s 62-41 romp last year was the catalyst for the USC administration to oust much maligned coach Lane Kiffin. These teams look much different from that fateful night almost exactly a year ago.

  An injury to Arizona State quarterback Taylor Kelly exacerbated problems that come with returning only eight starters. The defense is particularly shoddy, ranking 69th in the nation according to Football Outsiders’ S&P, and the biggest reason why the team has started 1-3 against the spread.

  USC is serviceable on defense, but new coach Steve Sarkisian has implemented an offense that has seen inconsistent results. Although the unit looked top-notch in a 35-10 win over Oregon State as 7.5-point favorites last week, it came after shameful showings in a stunning upset loss to Boston College and an extremely fortunate win against Stanford.

  Pick: Arizona State plus-12.5 Another game where I can’t figure out the right side but the combination of extra time to prepare and embarrassment stemming from the Sun Devils’ 62-27 loss to UCLA last Thursday could prove useful.

• 

  Miami plus-1 at Georgia Tech, over/under: 55.5; 4:30 p.m., ESPN2

  As predicted in the column last week, Miami’s offense broke out in a victory against Duke.

  Freshman quarterback Brad Kaaya played turnover-free with two touchdowns and 223 yards. Junior running back Duke Johnson had 25 carries for 155 yards.

  It all sets up perfectly heading into a game with an even lousier defense in Georgia Tech, which ranks 101st in Football Outsiders’ S&P defense rankings.

  The Yellow Jackets had an improbable 27-24 comeback victory at Virginia Tech in their last game despite giving up more than 400 yards to a mediocre offense. Even when they have a decent defense, Georgia Tech struggles with Miami.

  The Hurricanes have won and covered in five straight meetings. The Yellow Jackets’ only saving grace might be Miami’s tendency to struggle against the run.

  Georgia Tech got a bye week after Virginia Tech to add wrinkles to its triple option attack — not that it needs much. Quarterback Justin Thomas and running back Zach Laskey are averaging more than six yards per carry.

  Pick: Georgia Tech minus-1 The public loaded up against Miami last week, and it won and covered easily. Now they’re all over Miami. Something doesn’t feel right with that picture.

• 

  Nebraska plus-7 at Michigan State, over/under: 59.5; 5 p.m., ABC

  The Big Ten might be peaking early.

  In a major down year that’s further complicated by realignment, Nebraska at Michigan State might be the Big Ten Game of the Year. Bettors would have no argument, as both teams have covered in all but one of their games this season.

  Unfortunately for both the Spartans and Cornhuskers, the spread loss is the game everyone remembers them most for. Michigan State was ahead of Oregon for the better part of three quarters, before falling apart and losing 46-27 as 14-point underdogs.

  Nebraska had the narrow 31-24 escape over McNese State as 35-point favorites.

  The Cornhuskers are usually lauded for their offense, while the Spartans are more commonly seen as a defensive force in recent years. But those stereotypes might be misplaced this season.

  In Michigan State’s case, the offense is almost certainly better than the defense. Junior quarterback Connor Cook is third in the nation in passer rating, and blessed with big-play senior receiver Tony Lippett.

  Nebraska remains better offensively with 7.6 yards per play to rank second in the nation, but the defense is no walkover. Junior defensive end Randy Gregory is tied for 10th in the nation with five sacks despite missing the majority of two games.

  Pick: Nebraska plus-7 Ridden the Cornhuskers ever since the McNese State fiasco, and see no reason to stop now.

• 

  Utah plus-13.5 at UCLA, over/under: 64; 7:30 p.m., ESPN

  The good news for Utah fans is Travis Wilson won’t be able to throw six interceptions this year.

  The Utah quarterback infamously cost his team a closely contested game with UCLA last season with a half-dozen turnovers. Wilson is still the starter this year, but Kendal Thompson is gaining traction to take over.

  The offense’s ineffectiveness blew a 21-0 lead against Washington State last week and prevented Utah from keeping their undefeated straight-up and against the spread records. Washington State came back to win outright 28-27 as 13.5-point underdogs when Utah could only muster one offensive touchdown.

  UCLA’s slow start — the Bruins were 3-0 straight-up but 0-3 against the spread — followed a similar narrative until last week changed everything. The offense managed its long-awaited explosion in a 62-27 beatdown of Arizona State.

  Quarterback Brett Hundley fought through an arm injury suffered two weeks ago to throw for 355 yards and four touchdowns.

  The Utah defense, which features one of the nation’s toughest secondaries, should present a step-up in resistance.

  Pick: Utah plus-13.5 Pretty apparent look-ahead spot for UCLA with Oregon on deck.

Case Keefer can be reached at 948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.