Vegas Play of the Day: Dallas Mavericks at Houston Rockets

By Case Keefer (contact)

Tuesday, April 21, 2015 | 12:02 p.m.

Four days into the NBA Playoffs, the South Point-lined Play of the Day has somehow not picked a single game.

That’s about to change, with the most exciting two-month long tournament in sports about to have a major effect on our $10,000 starting bankrolls.

Dallas Mavericks plus-6.5 at Houston Rockets: $330 to win $300

The Rockets have now beaten the Mavericks in four of five meetings this season. But Saturday’s game one was the first time they did it by double digits, and it was only a 118-108 victory.

Houston has outscored Dallas by 14 points in 240 minutes on the floor, which amounts to less than three points per game. These teams are closer than they looked in game one, and more even than the betting market is giving credit.

There was no reason for the line to jump a whole point from game one to game two, even though the Mavericks are likely to be without starter Chandler Parsons. Dallas will make a series of this yet.

Dallas coach Rick Carlisle is too much of a proven winner in the playoffs to expect otherwise. Don’t forget the Mavericks took the Spurs to seven games, playing the eventual champions harder than any other team in last year’s playoffs behind tweaks from Carlisle, who’s 32-20-2 against the spread throughout his career in the first round.

He had the right idea Saturday in focusing all of Dallas’ defensive attention on James Harden, who went only 4 for 11 from the floor but managed to shoot 17 free throws. What really killed the Mavericks were big games from Jason Terry, Terrence Jones and Corey Brewer.

The Rockets can’t count on that every night. The Mavericks won’t go down easy.

Standings: Keefer (76-72-2, $11,417), Bern (74-66-1, $10,662), Brewer (66-80-3, $2,345)

Case Keefer can be reached at 948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.