Vegas Play of the Day: Navy vs. Army

By Case Keefer (contact)

Saturday, Dec. 12, 2015 | 2 a.m.

We've reset the Play of the Day with fresh bankrolls and turned it into a yearly competition. Our three sports writers have re-started with $10,000 bankrolls to continue using on odds from the South Point.

Navy minus-22 vs. Army: $440 to win $400

I may have backed Navy more than any other team this college football season, and have almost always been rewarded. The Midshipmen are 8-3 against the spread and 9-2 straight-up during a terrific season.

This might be their best team in decades. They aren’t going to waste that by giving anything less than maximum effort in a chance to win the Commander’s In Chief Trophy at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia.

The big number may scare people off from getting in on the final regular season game in college football, but the spread should be even bigger. Based on most statistical measures, Navy could lay four touchdowns or more against Army.

Navy is the No. 13 in the nation, for instance, in Football Outsiders’ F/+ ratings to Army’s No. 114. The Cadets have played only three decent teams all year — Air Force, Duke and Penn State — and posted a minus-61 point differential in those games.

Navy is far more tested, having played in the surprisingly rugged American Athletic Conference west division as well as having faced Notre Dame and Air Force in the non-conference. The rigors of a long season caught up to the Midshipmen two weeks ago when they were blown out 52-31 at Houston as a 1-point favorite.

They won’t go out like that, and have probably been even more focused for this game because of the loss. It’s a bad sign for Army.

Current Standings (as of July 1): Brewer (26-21, $10,485), Bern (16-26, 5,945), Keefer (20-32-2, $5,601),

Lifetime standings: 2014-15 Champion Bern (96-99-1), Keefer (103-115-4), Brewer (95-109-2)

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.