Vegas Play of the Day: Super Bowl 49

By Case Keefer (contact)

Sunday, Feb. 1, 2015 | 2 a.m.

Despite pouring out thousands of words on which team will cover, and in this year’s case win, I don’t love either side in Super Bowl 49.

It’s the closest Super Bowl matchup of my lifetime, and possibly ever, which makes the point spread difficult to navigate. But there’s another traditional betting method where some value may lie, which is where I’ll take the South Point-lined Play of the Day that began with $10,000 starting bankrolls.

New England Patriots vs. Seattle Seahawks under 48: $440 to win $400

The biggest fluke of last year’s Super Bowl wasn’t Seattle’s 43-8 victory. It was the game going over the 47.5-point total.

There were all of 34 offensive points scored. Seattle could roll to a repeat this year with half of the points it scored last year.

The Seahawks might even be hard-pressed to get there. The New England defense is being underestimated going into the Super Bowl. The Patriots have been outstanding stopping opponents since the start of the second half of the season.

Seahawks running back Marshawn Lynch is going to create problems, but that could help the under. Lynch could pick up four or five yards per carry with the methodical Seattle offense draining the clock.

Four of New England’s five Super Bowls in the Bill Belichick era have gone under the total. Most would write that off as a small sample size, but there could also be something to it.

Despite his reputation as an aggressive coach, Belichick tends to be more conservative in big games. The Patriots will likely build their game plan around short passing and try to sustain long drives just like the Seahawks.

There are too many great defensive players on both sides for Super Bowl 49 to turn into a blowout.

Standings: Bern (65-54-1, $12,366), Keefer (64-63-2, $10,427), Brewer (57-64-3, $5,585)

Case Keefer can be reached at 948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.