Vegas Play of the Day: North Carolina at Duke

By Case Keefer (contact)

Wednesday, Feb. 18, 2015 | 12:55 p.m.

The landscape of the Play of the Day, which uses odds from the South Point and started with $10,000 starting bankrolls, has changed drastically since my last pick two and a half weeks ago. And not in a good way.

A month after reaching collective profitability, we’ve fallen off to be nowhere close. A streak going the other way is in order.

North Carolina plus-8.5 at Duke: $330 to win $300

Aside from the general rule of taking this many points in a rivalry game of this magnitude, the Tar Heels also might match up decently with the Blue Devils. The primary concern for any Duke opponent is center Jahlil Okafor, who’s been every bit as dominant as advertised coming out of high school.

But North Carolina has bodies to throw at him. Brice Johnson and Kennedy Meeks have both been exceptional pieces in the Tar Heels’ frontcourt. They’ve helped North Carolina rate as one of the best teams on the glass in the country, ranking second in offensive rebound percentage.

The Tar Heels are on the road, but they come into Cameron Indoor Stadium as the hungrier team. Losers of three of their last four, the Tar Heels are getting at least a point more than necessary on the point spread.

Duke has won five straight to right a relatively rough stretch but still has a handful off issues. The Blue Devils are an average defensive team and struggle to create extra possessions with steals and blocks.

North Carolina can take advantage of Duke’s weaknesses.

Standings: Bern (66-60-1, $10,136), Keefer (64-64-2, $9,987), Brewer (60-68-3, $5,165)

Case Keefer can be reached at 948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.