National championship by the odds: Vegas preview of Oregon vs. Ohio State

By Case Keefer (contact)

Monday, Jan. 12, 2015 | 2 a.m.

NBA superstar LeBron James shares more Las Vegas peers than his sponsorship boss, Nike mogul Phil Knight, when it comes to tonight’s college football national championship game.

While James’ beloved Ohio State and Knight’s alma mater Oregon have drawn close to even amount of bets over the past week and a half in sports books, the big money is on the Buckeyes. Las Vegas luminaries haven’t purchased the team Beats by Dre headphones like James, but they are buying them to beat the Ducks.

Based on the moneyline price to win the game, Ohio State’s chances to upset Oregon have improved by 6 percent since the national semifinal games on New Year’s Day. The Buckeyes opened as a plus-235 (risking $1 to win $2.35) underdog with the Ducks a minus-275 (risking $2.75 to win $1) favorite at the South Point. Those numbers translated to a 71 percent chance of Oregon prevailing when calculated for the house’s hold.

But it’s down to 65 percent with the South Point and most other books adjusting to minus-200 on Oregon with Ohio State coming back at plus-170.

The largest point-spread bets are showing a similarly cavalier stance towards the Ducks. The line has steadily trickled down since the night betting opened when Oregon settled as a 7.5-point favorite.

The most common number was Oregon minus-6.5 three days later. It shifted to 5.5 by the start of last weekend.

Hours before kickoff, local books are currently split between lines of 5.5 and 6.

Talking Points is sad to see college football go. After finishing the regular season 13 games above .500 picking the 10 biggest games every week against the spread, bowl season was even more profitable.

The bowl record stands at 23-15 against the spread with one game left.

College Football Playoff National Championship Game: Ohio State plus-6 vs. Oregon, over/under: 75

5:30 p.m. tonight, AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas on ESPN

Ohio State plus-7.5 was a line so exploitable that the Pink Panthers were likely alerted. Getting more than a touchdown was an invitation for theft, a criminally easy take. There are no numbers — traditional, advanced or otherwise — that suggest either of these teams is that much better than the other on a neutral field. Both are 13-1 straight-up with Ohio State winning 11 in a row and Oregon on a nine-win streak. The Ducks have outscored opponents by 349 points. The Buckeyes have outscored opponents by 320 points. Oregon gains .4 more yards per play better on offense. Ohio State gives up .5 less yards per play on defense. In Football Outsiders’ F/+ ratings, Ohio State is No. 1. Oregon is No. 2.

One reason for the inflated line is Cardale Jones. No one can argue the ideality of starting a third-string quarterback for a national championship. But it might be time to start giving the sophomore bulldozer the benefit of the doubt. His two starts still only account for one-seventh of the Buckeyes’ season, but Jones wrecked two defenses that ranked in the nation’s top 10 coming into the pair of contests. He completed 57 percent of his passes with four touchdowns to one interception against Alabama and Wisconsin. Fixating on Ohio State’s injury misfortune masquerades Oregon’s more encompassing list of missing players. The loss of shutdown cornerback Ifo Ekpre-Olomu was a major concern going into the national semifinal but has now been ignored. Ekpre-Olomu’s absence isn’t suddenly less meaningful. It’s probably a bigger problem, in fact, against Jones, who bombs a high 6 percent of his passes at least 30 yards downfield, according to ESPN Stats & Information. There are holes on offense too. The suspension of Darren Carrington joins the injury of Devon Allen to leave the Ducks without two of their top three receivers.

Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota has no equal this season, but Alabama’s Blake Sims held at second in passer efficiency for most of the year, including going into the semifinal against Ohio State. The Buckeyes’ defense forced Sims into three interceptions and held him to 6.6 yards per attempt. They’ve also contained Mariota’s Heisman runner-ups in back-to-back games, with Wisconsin running back Melvin Gordon gaining just 76 yards on 26 carries and Alabama receiver Amari Cooper getting only 71 yards on nine catches. They took points in both games, improving coach Urban Meyer to 5-0 straight-up as an underdog at Ohio State.

The average betting line in college football’s national championship game is just a hair over 6, making tonight’s fit right in with history. In reality, it’s one of the closest matchups in memory.

Pick: Ohio State plus-6

Case Keefer can be reached at 948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.