NBA Finals in Las Vegas: Betting preview and picks of Game 6

By Case Keefer (contact)

Tuesday, June 16, 2015 | 2 a.m.

Cleveland will have an extra problem to go with getting something out of its languid supporting cast and containing a reinvigorated Stephen Curry in Game 6 of the NBA Finals.

With a 3-2 deficit in the series, the Cavaliers must also beat history in what they hope is the penultimate contest tipping at 6 p.m. tonight in Cleveland. NBA Finals teams facing elimination before Game 7 haven’t fared well recently.

Since 2000, teams in the Cavaliers’ do-or-die situation are 5-12 straight-up and against the spread.

The 2013 Miami Heat were the only squad in the last five years to stave off early elimination, beating the San Antonio Spurs 103-100 in overtime of Game 6 but failing to cover the 6.5-point spread. A team down to its last loss hasn’t cashed a ticket since 2010, when the Los Angeles Lakers smothered the Boston Celtics 89-76 as 6-point favorites.

There’s a reason the updated series price at the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook lists the Warriors as minus-1200 (risking $12 to win $1) favorite with the Cavaliers coming back at plus-750 (risking $1 to win $7.50). That translates to a 91 percent likelihood of Golden State taking the title — and some shops have it even higher.

In some ways, Cleveland has already beaten the odds by making it this far. William Hill sports books had Golden State winning the finals in five games as the pre-series favorite in its exact-result proposition wager at plus-275.

Golden State in six games at 4-to-1 was the most popular bet, however, as 29 percent of the action and 22 percent of the bets came in that direction. Between paying those props out and the early Game 6 money pushing the Warriors to 4.5-point favorites, sports books could suffer a loss tonight if the series ends.

Reports of liability on the Warriors hurting casinos from the beginning of the year are surprisingly scarce, though. The Superbook had Golden State posted at 25-to-1 odds to win the championship in October, which would make the team the biggest pre-season underdog to prevail in at least 11 years and likely since the 1990s.

But bettors didn’t take advantage, not like they did in loading up on the Cavaliers at a decent price before LeBron James returned.

Cleveland gave its backers hope throughout the entire season, but based on NBA Finals past, it will run out tonight.

Case Keefer can be reached at 948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.