Vegas Play of the Day: Denver Broncos at Chicago Bears

By Case Keefer (contact)

Sunday, Nov. 22, 2015 | 2:17 a.m.

We've reset the Play of the Day with fresh bankrolls and turned it into a yearly competition. Our three sports writers have re-started with $10,000 bankrolls to continue using on odds from the South Point.

Denver Broncos minus-1 at Chicago Bears: $550 to win $500

The Broncos have covered the spread in a successful five out of nine games this season, and it’s had virtually nothing to do with Peyton Manning. Denver is in position to get at least one home playoff game more in spite of Manning than because of the NFL’s all-time leading passer.

That’s why his absence in today’s game at Chicago is of little concern. In fact, it’s preferable for a couple reasons.

For one, replacement Brock Osweiler could play terribly and still prove more effective than Manning was last week when he went 5-for-20 for 35 yards and four interceptions. And, more importantly, Manning’s absence has created value on the point spread.

Just two weeks ago, Denver would have given close to a touchdown in this spot. Instead, it was getting points earlier in the week when Talking Points first locked in this play.

Unfortunately, the betting market has corrected the spread closer to its actual price but a move from plus-1.5 to minus-1 is not overly significant. Chicago has won and covered two in a row, and now has some calling for a dark horse wild-card contention.

That needs to stop. The Bears have a minus-35 point differential, and have outperformed their statistical expectation to go 4-5.

Denver has the best defense in the league. Chicago has one of the worst.

All hail Osweiler.

Current Standings (as of July 1): Brewer (23-19, $10,550), Bern (15-22, $7,205), Keefer (16-28-2, $5,371)

Lifetime standings: 2014-15 Champion Bern (96-95-1), Keefer (100-112-4), Brewer (92-106-2)

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.