Las Vegas Sun

March 19, 2024

College football by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of Week 13

Michigan State beats Ohio State

Jay LaPrete / Associated Press

Michigan State quarterback Tyler O’Connor throws a pass against Ohio State during the second quarter of an NCAA college football game, Saturday, Nov. 21, 2015, in Columbus, Ohio.

College football will supply a miracle cure to tryptophan-induced dazes this holiday weekend.

Some of the best games have been saved for the last full regular-season slate of the year, with nary a turkey of a matchup in sight. Twelve of the top 15 teams in the latest college football playoff rankings compete in a game with a point spread of less than a touchdown on either Friday or Saturday, including eight of them playing each other.

And even the three exceptions don’t get mashed-potato soft opponents either. Michigan State must fend off Penn State to remain the Big 10 frontrunner, while Alabama and Clemson take on in-state nemeses Auburn and South Carolina, respectively.

Sports books will sound as loud as a raucous extended family get-together where the wine gets uncorked a little early, with capacity crowds and extensive action. The holiday weekend always boosts sports books’ handle, but the quality of the matchups may even give an extra lift this year.

Talking Points hopes to make like a champion and perform its best on the highest stage. The blog is coming off two consecutive mediocre showings after a few hard-to-swallow beats left the record at 5-5 last week.

The record for the year is now 64-56-2 picking the 10 biggest games of the week, in the profitable zone and above our goal of 50 percent given the difficulty of forcing a selection on every game.

Check below for week 13 of college football by the odds.

    • Navy wide receiver Jamir Tillman (4) catches a touchdown pass while Connecticut center Jamar Summers (21) defends on the play during the second quarter of an NCAA college football game, Saturday, Sept. 26, 2015, in East Hartford, Conn.

      Navy minus-3.5 at Houston, over/under: 61; 9 a.m. Friday on ABC

      For the last three weeks, the betting line has moved against Houston.

      It’s been the right direction on every occasion. Since becoming a surprisingly well-supported publicly backed team with a 6-2 against the spread start, the Cougars have dropped three straight versus the number.

      They were able to escape with outright victories against Memphis, 35-34 as 4.5-point favorites, and Cincinnati, 33-30 laying 9 points, but couldn’t do the same at Connecticut last week. Houston fell 20-17 as 7.5-point favorites.

      The loss certainly disappointed the considerable amount of bettors using them as parlay fodder, but the team should be able to bounce back. All of the Cougars’ goals are still in front of them.

      The winner of this game gets home-field advantage against Temple or South Florida in next week’s American Athletic Conference championship game. The conference champion is extremely likely to reach a New Year’s Six bowl game as the Group of Five conferences’ representative.

      There was no way to tell if the streak of line moves against Houston would continue early in the week. Only a couple sports books posted a line because of how many injuries the Cougars are trying to recover from.

      Both of their quarterbacks, Greg Ward Jr. and Kyle Postma, are hurt as well as leading rusher Kenneth Farrow. Houston’s offense has drawn rave reviews under first-year coach Tom Herman, but Navy is averaging an identical 6 yards per play.

      Record-breaking senior quarterback Keenan Reynolds is running for 5 yards per carry, but also quite effective on the rare occasion when Navy decides to pass. He’s averaging 9.6 yards per pass attempt with Bishop Gorman graduate Jamir Tillman as his favorite target.

      Navy minus-3.5 Effect of playing 10 games in less than 60 days has clearly taken its toll on Houston.

    • Nebraska head coach Mike Riley looks down during the first half of an NCAA college football game against Michigan State in Lincoln, Neb., Saturday, Nov. 7, 2015.

      Iowa minus-2 at Nebraska, over/under: 58; 12:30 p.m. Friday on ESPN

      For the amount of scorn 5-6 Nebraska has received compared with the praise for undefeated Iowa, most would expect the teams’ against the spread records to vary drastically.

      Instead, they’re identical at 6-5. Nebraska has covered its last two, including a controversial outright upset of Michigan State, while Iowa has fallen short to even the records.

      As the betting line suggests, these teams might not be so different after all. Variance in close games has played at least some role in their contrasting seasons, as Iowa is 4-0 in games decided by less than a touchdown while Nebraska is 1-5.

      Normally this might be a spot where playoff hopeful Iowa has more to play for, but Nebraska also must win to become bowl eligible. That might be the only way first-year coach Mike Riley saves his job.

      The Cornhuskers have been the better offensive team — averaging 6.1 yards per play to the Hawkeyes’ 5.8 — with one of the most balanced attacks in the country. They have a straight 50/50 run-pass split with quarterback Tommy Armstrong Jr. capable of both. Iowa is far more rush-heavy with their three-headed running back attack — Jordan Canzeri, LeShun Daniels Jr. and Akrum Wadley — combining to average better than 5 yards per carry.

      Iowa’s biggest edge is on defense, however, where its front seven has played as well as any in the nation

      Pick: Nebraska plus-2 Cornhuskers’ defense is better against the run than the Hawkeyes’ is against the pass, which will make the difference in a tight decision.

    • TCU quarterback Foster Sawyer (12) is chased down by Oklahoma defensive end Charles Tapper (91).

      Baylor plus-1.5 at TCU, over/under: XX; 4:30 p.m. Friday on ESPN

      This is not what everyone had in mind when Baylor at TCU was labeled as the most anticipated game of the year in the preseason.

      It’s no longer even the most important Big 12 matchup of the weekend, as neither the Bears nor the Horned Frogs control their own destiny to win the conference. And, on top of that, both of the teams’ top two offensive players are out.

      Baylor already lost quarterback Seth Russell for the year, but now highly recruited freshman replacement Jarrett Stidham will join him on the sideline. Running back Shock Linwood is also hurt.

      Like Linwood, TCU quarterback Trevone Boykin is questionable. Top receiver Josh Doctson is out.

      These teams look little like the ones expected at the beginning of the year, so it makes sense that the point spread doesn’t either. TCU opened up as a 5-point favorite, and was bet up to minus-6 when Golden Nugget set the market in June.

      The line has crept towards the Bears ever since with results clearly illustrating they are the more efficient team.

      Against eight common opponents, Baylor has posted a plus-173 point differential to TCU’s plus-78.

      Pick: Baylor plus-1.5 Bears, as a whole, are slightly less plagued with injuries and more equipped to deal with them.

    • Ohio State defensive lineman Tyquan Lewis reacts after losing 17-14 win over Michigan State in an NCAA college football game, Saturday, Nov. 21, 2015, in Columbus, Ohio.

      Ohio State minus-1 at Michigan, over/under: 45; 9 a.m. Saturday on ABC

      The point spread on one of college football’s most heated rivalries is suddenly as depressed as Ohio State’s chances to win back-to-back national championships.

      The Buckeyes went from 3-to-1 to 20-to-1 to win the title at the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook after last week’s 17-14 upset loss to Michigan State as 14-point favorites. They went off of the board in the preseason as a historically low 5-to-2 favorite.

      The drop isn’t unlike the number in this game. Ohio State first posted as a 16-point favorite over Michigan during the summer.

      The Wolverines were promptly bet down to plus-12, and reached as low as 6.5-point underdogs before last weekend’s results. Michigan is not much more unlikely to win the title than Ohio State, listed at 30-to-1.

      Both schools need a win here paired with a Michigan State loss against Penn State to reach next weekend’s Big Ten championship game with Iowa. It could be a defensive battle with both teams ranking in the top 10 of Football Outsiders’ S&P defensive rankings.

      Ohio State quarterback J.T. Barrett and Michigan quarterback Jake Rudock may both have trouble moving the ball through the air. Michigan is giving up just 5.2 yards per pass attempt, the best rate in the nation, to Ohio State’s 5.5.

      Pick: Michigan minus-1 Not rushing to play this game at the current price, but the Wolverines are the only way to look.

    • Southern California linebacker Jabari Ruffin, center, celebrates with his team after they defeated Utah in an NCAA college football game, Saturday, Oct. 24, 2015, in Los Angeles. Southern California won 42-24.

      UCLA plus-3.5 at USC, over/under: 63; 12:30 p.m. Saturday on ABC

      Oddsmakers deserve a pat on the back for their foresight when it comes the Victory Bell game.

      UCLA and USC posted as virtual co-favorites to win the Pac-12 South in the preseason and identical over/under win totals of 9, with the implication that this showdown would be a play-in game to the Pac-12 Championship Game. That’s precisely how it’s played out.

      USC was also a 4-point favorite over UCLA, which has also proven almost exactly right. The market has valued these teams properly throughout the season, as they’re both 5-6 against the spread.

      They’ve both found success in expected areas. USC ranks within the nation’s top 20 in averaging 6.3 yards per play behind senior quarterback Cody Kessler throwing for 25 touchdowns to six interceptions.

      Despite a litany of injuries, UCLA has made defense its identity in limiting opponents to 4.8 yards per play. Eight of the Bruins’ 11 games have gone under the total, including the last three straight.

      The matchup to watch is UCLA shutdown cornerback Ishmael Adams against USC sophomore receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster, who’s 10th in the nation with 1,217 yards.

      Pick: UCLA plus-3.5 This should come with a disclaimer that I’ve picked almost every UCLA game wrong this season, and have no strong opinion here.

    • Michigan State kicker Michael Geiger (4) kisses the game ball as he walks off the field after his team's 17-14 win over Ohio State.

      Penn State plus-11.5 at Michigan State, over/under: 46.5; 12:30 p.m. Saturday on ESPN

      Penn State coach James Franklin will have to pull off something he’s never achieved in order to create mass Big Ten chaos and knock off Michigan State on Saturday.

      He’ll have to record the first Big Ten upset of his career at Spartan Stadium. Last week’s 28-16 loss to Michigan as 3.5-point underdogs was Penn State’s fifth straight loss as an underdog under Franklin in conference play.

      The Nittany Lions are also just 1-4 against the spread as an underdog in conference play the last two seasons. Perhaps Franklin could learn something from Michigan State coach Mike D’Antonio, who’s now won his last three as an underdog outright after beating Ohio State 17-14 while getting 14 points last week.

      A running game that had been mediocre for most of the season broke loose for more than 200 yards behind the lead of underclassmen Gerald Holmes and L.J. Scott with quarterback Conor Cook sidelined with an injury. Cook is a game-time decision against Penn State, which kept the spread off of boards at most sports books earlier in the week.

      Penn State has lost two straight and four of five against the spread with the offense plummeting to 4.8 yards per play over the last month.

      Pick: Penn State plus-11.5 Too many points.

    • Mississippi State players celebrate with fans after an NCAA college football game against Arkansas, Saturday, Nov. 21, 2015, in Fayetteville, Ark.

      Ole Miss minus-1 at Mississippi State, over/under: 64; 4:15 p.m. Saturday on ESPN

      The 2015 Egg Bowl may lack in national significance, but the matchup makes up for it in competitiveness.

      Auburn would need to upset Alabama as 14-point underdogs earlier in the day for the heated rivalry to carry any stakes above Magnolia State bragging rights as Ole Miss could then advance to the SEC Championship Game with a victory. But in the mean time, it’s the only Saturday game currently listed as a pick’em at many sports books.

      Both teams come in at 8-3 straight-up with Mississippi State a game better at 7-4 against the spread. The Bulldogs rank 14th in Football Outsiders’ F/+ ratings, two spots behind the Rebels.

      The teams field two of the five most efficient passing offenses in the nation per Football Outsiders. Ole Miss quarterback Chad Kelly and Mississippi State counterpart Dak Prescott are each in the nation’s top 25 in passer rating.

      Ole Miss has failed to cover in all three of its road games, winning only a tilt at Auburn outright, since stunning Alabama 43-37 as a 9-point underdog in September. Alabama smashed Mississippi State 31-6 as 7-point favorites two weeks ago, but otherwise, the Bulldogs have covered and won in four straight.

      The schools have alternated wins and covers in each of the last four years in the series, with the home team succeeding on every occasion.

      Pick: Mississippi State plus-1 Sound the cowbells; home field holds up again for the egg.

    • Florida quarterback Treon Harris (3) scrambles as South Carolina defensive end David Johnson (55) pursues.

      Florida State minus-2.5 at Florida, over/under: 43.5; 4:30 p.m. Saturday on ESPN

      This season’s battle for Florida is a cousin to the battle for Mississippi.

      Florida State and Florida might look even more similar. They’re both 7-4 against the spread with seven of 11 games going under the total due to dominating defenses.

      The Gators’ Vernon Hargreaves and the Seminoles’ Jalen Ramsey might be the top two cornerbacks off of the board in the 2016 NFL Draft.

      Hargreaves projects to have the tougher assignment at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium as Florida State’s passing game has shown recent signs of life. Junior quarterback Sean Maguire has thrown for 8.2 yards per attempt with seven touchdowns to two interceptions since taking over for the deposed Everrett Golson.

      It’s been more of a struggle for Florida sophomore Treon Harris, who’s averaging 7.6 yards per attempt with six touchdowns to four interceptions after moving into the starting role for the suspended Will Grier.

      Florida probably presents the stiffer defensive challenge, though. Although both teams have looked nearly impenetrable at times, it’s the Gators that are third in the nation in surrendering just 14.5 points per game and 4.1 yards per play against FBS competition.

      The Gators are also alive for a college football playoff berth if they can upset Alabama next week in the SEC Championship Game, while Florida State’s best-case scenario currently is an invite to a New Year’s Six bowl game.

      Pick: Florida plus-2.5 Home underdog in a rivalry game? Book it.

    • Notre Dame quarterback DeShone Kizer (14) throws a pass as he is pressured by Boston College defensive end Kevin Kavalec (93) and defensive lineman Harold Landry (8) at Fenway Park.

      Notre Dame plus-4 at Stanford, over/under: 55; 4:30 p.m. Saturday on Fox

      Everything has gone wrong for Notre Dame over the last two weeks.

      The Irish have turned in two consecutive point-spread losses for the first time this season, relatively eking past Boston College and Wake Forest as a big favorites. The underwhelming performances dropped them from the coveted top four of the college football playoff rankings, leaving their fate ambiguous.

      They also lost their 12th starter of the year to injury in arguably indispensable senior running back C.J. Prosise, who’s doubtful to play at Stanford with a high ankle sprain. Notre Dame comes in as the underdog for only the third time this season in the regular-season finale.

      The Irish covered both previous instances taking points, beating Georgia Tech 30-22 as a 2-point underdog but losing to Clemson 24-22 getting 3 points.

      Notre Dame’s championship aspirations still look golden next to Stanford’s. The Irish remain 10-to-1 at the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook, while the Cardinal rose to 50-to-1 after a 38-36 loss to Oregon as an 8.5-point favorite two weeks ago.

      Stanford is locked into next week’s Pac-12 Championship Game, but will need some hijinks to take place around the country for any shot at the playoff.

      Besides the obvious advantage of playing at home in the Pacific time zone against an Eastern team, Stanford also runs the ball on more than 63 percent of its plays to rank 12th in the nation. Notre Dame’s run defense has given up a mediocre 4.6 yards per carry on the season.

      Pick: Over 55 points Neither the Cardinal nor the Irish have been trustworthy on defense.

    • Oklahoma quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) greets fans after their NCAA college football game against Baylor, Saturday, Nov. 14, 2015, in Waco, Texas. Oklahoma won 44-34.

      Oklahoma minus-6.5 at Oklahoma State, over/under: 69; 5 p.m. on ABC

      Oklahoma junior quarterback Baker Mayfield’s best case for the Heisman Trophy may have come when he was off the field last week

      The Texas Tech transfer led Oklahoma to a 23-7 advantage against TCU as 18-point favorites in the first half last weekend before suffering a concussion. Oklahoma couldn’t move the ball without him, and TCU outscored it 22-7 in the final two quarterbacks.

      Mayfield, a current 15-to-1 fifth choice for the award, is expected back for the game that would give the Sooners the Big 12 championship with a victory. Oklahoma and Oklahoma State have already caused plenty of bedlam in sports books this year.

      The pair of 10-1 teams went over their preseason win totals weeks ago, as Oklahoma State had an over/under of just 7.5 while Oklahoma sat at 8.5. The Cowboys at least got action on the over; the Sooners were a popular under bet.

      Mayfield has changed public perception, though. He had Oklahoma rolling with nearly 7 yards per play during five straight wins and covers since an inexplicable loss to Texas in early October.

      The Cowboys had won and covered in four straight too before the attention of possible inclusion into the college football playoff put a spotlight on them. They were unimpressive in escaping with a 35-31 victory as 12-point favorites at Iowa State, and then Baylor whitewashed them with a 45-35 victory laying 2.5 points last week.

      Pick: Oklahoma minus-6.5 Hate taking a bad number after Oklahoma opened as low as minus-4 and would prefer to stay away, but the Sooners deserve to lay a full 7 points.

    Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

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