Vegas Play of the Day: Iowa at Nebraska

By Case Keefer (contact)

Friday, Nov. 27, 2015 | 2 a.m.

We've reset the Play of the Day with fresh bankrolls and turned it into a yearly competition. Our three sports writers have re-started with $10,000 bankrolls to continue using on odds from the South Point.

Nebraska plus-1.5 vs. Iowa: $440 to win $400

Before the season began, Nebraska was an 8.5-point favorite over Iowa in this game. It may seem foolish to reference a line from that long ago when there’s a sample of 11 games to evaluate.

But look at those games closely enough, and they suggest these teams aren’t all that different from their original expectation in every area except wins and losses. Iowa is undefeated and Nebraska is 5-6, but the two teams have been on extreme ends of variance.

Iowa is 4-0 in games decided by less than a touchdown; Nebraska is 1-5. Those numbers tend to even out, especially now that the Cornhuskers are playing their best of the season.

Nebraska has won and covered in two straight behind an improved passing game that features Tommy Armstrong Jr. throwing for 9 yards per attempt. Iowa is going the other direction, having failed to cover in four of its last five with a regressing secondary that last week allowed Minnesota to throw for more than 10 yards per attempt.

Armstrong had a big game last year in Iowa City, leading Nebraska to 37-34 overtime victory. The Cornhuskers were also a 1.5-point underdog in that game. Getting the same spread at home is a take.

Current Standings (as of July 1): Brewer (24-19, $10,950), Bern (16-22, $7,705), Keefer (17-29-2, $5,321)

Lifetime standings: 2014-15 Champion Bern (96-96-1), Keefer (101-113-4), Brewer (93-106-2)

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.