Vegas pick’em: NFL Week 13 winners against the spread

By Case Keefer (contact)

Thursday, Dec. 1, 2016 | 2 a.m.

The team sports books gave the greatest probability to reach the postseason at the beginning of the year could be eliminated from contention by Sunday night.

Oddsmakers posted the Carolina Panthers at a league-high minus-500 (risking $5 to win $1) to reach the playoffs in the offseason, which implies an 82 percent chance after adjusting for the house’s hold percentage. At 4-7 overall going into Week 13, the Panthers are barely clinging to life.

Football Outsiders’ playoff odds calculate a 0.7 percent chance of the Panthers extending their season. Even that drop of hope is expected to evaporate when Carolina visits Seattle for Sunday Night Football this week.

The Seahawks are minus-300 on the moneyline in the game, making Carolina the biggest underdog it’s been since winning in Seattle in last year’s Week 6.

The second-highest team in preseason odds to make the playoffs, the Green Bay Packers at minus-420, also faces a destiny in doubt. But the Packers (5-6) have a better chance to climb back into the conversation when they lay the same minus-300 price against the Texans on Sunday.

Talking Points understands not living up to expectations this season, as the blog is 81-93-3 picking every game against the spread after last week’s 9-5-2 record. Just like the Panthers and Packers, the focus turns to getting out of the deficit by finishing strong.

Check below for picks of all Week 13 games, separated into three separate confidence categories. Lines are the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen side.

Plays (15-27-1)

New Orleans Saints minus-5.5 vs. Detroit Lions This is the NFL’s best passing offense by Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric, New Orleans, against the worst pass defense, Detroit. It’s hard to see Drew Brees not putting up big numbers for the Saints, and uncertain if the Lions can keep pace.

San Diego Chargers minus-3.5 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Buccaneers have looked great in winning and covering three games in a row, but the Chargers have played that well all season. Tampa Bay is suddenly overvalued, as the line would have been a field goal higher a month ago.

Leans (31-32-1)

Atlanta Falcons minus-3.5 vs. Kansas City Chiefs Tough spot for the Chiefs, which must travel to take on the best offense in the league off a physical Sunday Night Football game that required overtime. The Falcons remain a bet-on as long as their point spreads stay small.

Minnesota Vikings plus-3.5 vs. Dallas Cowboys Minnesota’s defense, which gives up 4.9 yards per play to rank third in the league, is every bit as strong as Dallas’ offense, which gains 6.2 yards per play to rank third in the league. The Vikings’ last three losses have all come by less than a touchdown, leaving them slightly undervalued.

Green Bay Packers minus-6.5 vs. Houston Texans Jumping on the low price while it’s still available. There’s no reason the Packers shouldn’t lay more than a touchdown considering the Texans’ anemic offense.

Buffalo Bills plus-3.5 at Oakland Raiders Raiders’ record is three games better than the Bills, but their scoring differential is 13 points worse. It’s difficult to travel East to West, but the Bills might be the better team and will certainly play with more desperation.

Pittsburgh Steelers minus-5.5 vs. New York Giants Pittsburgh is getting healthier and improving defensively, which is bad news for the rest of the league. Those were the only things holding the Steelers back from turning into the Super Bowl contenders they were expected to be at the beginning of the year.

New York Jets plus-2 at Indianapolis Colts As evidenced by outplaying the Patriots in large portions of last week’s 22-17 loss as 8-point underdogs, the Jets haven’t quit. And as long as they haven’t quit, they shouldn’t be a home underdog to a team that’s played just as poorly as they have on the season.

Guesses (35-34-1)

Arizona Cardinals minus-2 vs. Washington Redskins Anticipating a lackluster performance from Washington, which hasn’t traveled this far west in more than two years. Arizona’s defense still leads the league in giving up 4.7 yards per play, and is particularly stingy in the secondary to make a bad matchup for Washington.

Philadelphia Eagles minus-1 at Cincinnati Bengals The Eagles had played eight straight teams with winning records before losing to the Packers 27-13 as 4-point favorites on Monday Night Football. They’re much better than their 5-6 record indicates because of the rugged schedule.

Denver Broncos minus-4.5 at Jacksonville Jaguars An overlooked part of the Broncos’ success over the last two years has been a consistency in beating up on the teams they should beat up on. Denver is 5-1 straight-up and against the spread this season against teams with losing records.

Baltimore Ravens minus-3 vs. Miami Dolphins Dolphins are bound to have a tough time slowing Timmy Jernigan, Brandon Williams and the rest of the Ravens’ defensive front. They’ve turned their season around with six straight wins behind a strong running game, but it won’t be as easy in Baltimore.

San Francisco 49ers plus-2 at Chicago Bears No team in the league is more besieged by injuries than Chicago. The 49ers have much closer to their full complement of players.

Seattle Seahawks minus-6.5 vs. Carolina Panthers It’s hard enough on East Coast teams to play in Pacific time zones already, let alone in a primetime slot at CenturyLink Field. The Seahawks are undefeated at home this season.

New England Patriots minus-13 vs. Los Angeles Rams Once again invoking the Bill Belichick Principle: Don’t pick against the Patriots unless there’s a really good reason. New England is now 167-124-5 against the spread under Belichick.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.