College football by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of Week 14

By Case Keefer (contact)

Friday, Dec. 2, 2016 | 2 a.m.

The impulse is always to look ahead to the College Football Playoff on conference championship weekend.

Fight the impulse. College football always carries the capability for craziness.

It would feel shortsighted to conclude that nothing out of ordinary could occur this year, even with the current top-four ranked teams in the College Football Playoff rankings appearing relatively secure. For the first time since the implementation of the playoff three years ago, one of the teams doesn’t even play in the final week.

Ohio State will watch the Big Ten championship between Penn State and Wisconsin from home. The Buckeyes will also see their three currently projected playoff counterparts — Alabama, Clemson and Washington — all favored by more than a touchdown in their respective conference championship games.

Even with the high numbers, the betting odds imply only a 57 percent chance that all three teams come out unscathed.

So, yes, Alabama would be around a 14-point favorite over Washington. Ohio State and Clemson could potentially wind up as the playoff’s first-ever pick’em.

But there’s a longer way than it seems still to go before getting there. Beyond the potential for an upset this weekend, there’s the perhaps even stronger chance that the playoff selection committee shifts around the rankings.

Talking Points wants one last successful week before getting into bowl season and the playoffs. After going 7-7-1 last week, the record for the year stands at 90-87-6 against the spread.

Check below for Week 14 of college football by the odds, with betting breakdowns and picks of all the major conference championship games as well as extra selections at the end.

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  AP Photo/Rick Scuteri

  Washington minus-6.5 at Washington State, over/under: 65; 12:30 p.m. Friday on Fox

  Secluding the Pac-12 Championship Game from the other major conference finales by playing it on Friday has made all too much sense since the game’s formation five years ago.

  It’s been can-miss television. Only one of the five previous Pac-12 championships, Stanford’s 27-24 victory over UCLA in 2012, has been decided by less than 18 points.

  The average point spread before this year has been minus-12.5, and the average margin of victory has been more than 20 points. The game’s also carried lesser stakes than its counterparts.

  This year, therefore, feels like a new era and not just because neither Oregon nor Stanford will win the game for the first time. There’s not a more important championship game than the Pac-12.

  Washington is clinging to a spot in the College Football Playoff, and some believe it needs to win convincingly to clinch it. Colorado could also get into the conversation with an upset victory.

  Based on betting reliability, the Buffaloes should be in. Their 27-22 win at Utah as 10-point favorites last week was only the second time this season they didn’t cover.

  Washington, meanwhile, went 6-6 against the spread overall and only 4-5 in league play but it’s the side the majority of bettors are backing. The Huskies widely opened as 7-point favorites before bookmakers were forced to add the half-point hook.

  Guess: Colorado plus-7.5

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  AP Photo/Raymond Thompson

  Oklahoma State plus-11.5 at Oklahoma, over/under: 77; 9:30 a.m. Saturday on Fox

  Contrary to popular belief, the Big 12 Conference does indeed have a conference championship game for the second consecutive year.

  It’s just not an official one. The Bedlam rivalry will decide which Sooner State rival will hoist the bowl-shaped Big 12 trophy for the second year in a row.

  Circumstances and upsets have just conspired to make sure that’s the only thing the Sooners and Cowboys are playing for. Oklahoma beat Oklahoma State 58-23 as 7.5-point favorites in this spot last year to boost it into the College Football Playoff.

  But there’s little chance the winner follows the same course this year.

  Oklahoma’s non-conference losses to Houston and Ohio State — 33-23 as 13-point favorites to the former and 45-24 as 2-point underdogs to the latter — continue to hold it back, but they were decent showings compared to Oklahoma State’s defeats. The Cowboys dropped a 35-24 decision to Baylor as 7-point underdogs and a 30-27 loss to Central Michigan as 14-point favorites.

  It’s too bad for the quartet of letdowns, because both teams are doing terrific things at the end of the season. Oklahoma has won eight straight, and covered three of its last four, behind an offense rated second in the nation gaining 7.3 yards per play.

  Oklahoma State has won its last seven, covering in five of six, with the 14th ranked offense at 6.6 yards per play. Cowboys junior James Washington might be the only receiver in the nation as explosive as Sooners senior Dede Westbrook.

  They both average 19.3 yards per reception.

  Guess: Oklahoma State plus-11.5

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  AP Photo/Brynn Anderson

  Florida plus-24 vs. Alabama at Georgia Dome in Atlanta, over/under: 41; 1 p.m. Saturday on CBS

  Alabama fans might be the only people that find themselves wishing the College Football Playoff wasn’t in effect this year.

  The lone reason the Crimson Tide aren’t a historic favorite to win the national championship at this point of the season is because they’re required to play an extra game against one of the best teams in the country. That’s keeping them at a relatively subdued minus-140 in the future odds.

  Alabama would be even lower if it wasn’t facing, by the odds, the easiest SEC Championship Game in the 24-year history of the event. The current 1-to-30 moneyline price on Alabama over Florida implies less than a 5 percent chance of an upset after adjusting for the house’s hold percentage.

  That even sounds high considering Florida’s one strength has taken a hit going into this game. The Gators have played outstanding defense all year, ranking No. 7 in the country by Football Outsiders’ S&P ratings, but more than half of their starters are now injured.

  Alabama, on the other hand, has stayed mostly healthy with its best player, senior defensive end Jonathan Allen, even emerging as an unlikely Heisman candidate. The Crimson Tide put together one of the best regular seasons in college football history.

  They were never favored by less than a touchdown, and still went 8-4 against the spread. It’s just going to take three more wins to win a second consecutive College Football Playoff championship.

  Guess: Alabama minus-24

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  AP Photo/Chuck Burton

  Virginia Tech plus-10.5 vs. Clemson at Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Fla., over/under: 58.5; 5 p.m. on ABC

  Bookmakers will want to break out their maroon outfits for Saturday night. They certainly won’t be caught wearing orange.

  The ACC Championship Game will likely be the biggest decision of the day for sports books. They’ll need Virginia Tech to cover.

  Bettors have backed Clemson all year despite a topsy-turvy 6-6 against the spread record, and the support isn’t waning in a spot where last year’s national runner-ups could secure a repeat berth in the College Football Playoff. The Tigers opened as 9-point favorites, but have only moved up from there.

  It’s Virginia Tech that enters on a two-game covering streak, though. The Hokies’ offense has improved as the year has stretched on behind junior quarterback Jerod Evans, whose numbers are just as strong as Clemson’s Deshaun Watson.

  Watson has thrown for more yards and touchdowns, but also has more interceptions and fewer yards per completion than Evans.

  Both teams’ defenses rank in the nation’s top 25 by almost any metric. The defensive backfields are particularly talent-filled as Virginia Tech’s Brandon Facyson and Terrell Edmunds counter Clemson’s Cordrea Tankersley and Jadar Jackson.

  Play: Under 58.5 points

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  ASSOCIATED PRESS

  Penn State plus-3 vs. Wisconsin at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, over/under: 47; 5 p.m. on Fox

  In the final non-Navy vs. Army game before bowl season, it feels unfair to make bettors choose between these two teams.

  Both the Nittany Lions and the Badgers have been such an asset to gamblers this season. Say what you will about neither of the Big Ten’s two best teams, Ohio State and Michigan, competing in this game, but both of the league’s two most profitable teams are playing.

  Penn State has covered seven in a row, and gone 8-3-1 against the spread on the year. Wisconsin has only lost to the spread in one of its last 10 games, going 9-2-1 versus the number in total this season.

  Coming up with a pick largely hinges on deciding whether to back a suffocating defense or an explosive offense. Michigan and Alabama are the only defenses in the nation that have played better than Wisconsin, by S&P ratings.

  No team has stopped the edge-rushing tandem of T.J. Watt and T.J. Edwards.

  Penn State’s offense may look pedestrian by comparison, but it puts together as many big plays as any teams in the nation behind sophomore running back Saquon Barkley and junior receiver Chris Godwin. The Nittany Lions are No. 10 in S&P’s IsoPPP, an explosiveness metric.

  The Nittany Lions have scored at least 40 points in five straight games, but Wisconsin has only given up more than 20 once all season. And that was in its 30-23 overtime loss to Ohio State as 10.5-point underdogs.

  Lean: Penn State plus-3

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  AP Photo/Ron Jenkins

  Extra points

  TCU minus-3.5 vs. Kansas State No team in the nation has frustrated more by underachieving this season than TCU. The good news is, that also makes it undervalued.

  Troy minus-7 at Georgia Southern Trojans can clinch a share of the Sun Belt Conference championship after a memorable rebound season with a victory. The Eagles have no such motivation, especially with no chance of bowl eligibility.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.