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March 18, 2024

Vegas pick’em: NFL Week 14 winners against the spread

NFL Games 12/4/16

Kansas City Chiefs strong safety Eric Berry (29) runs back an intercepted ball from a Atlanta Falcons two-point conversion during the second half of an NFL football game, Sunday, Dec. 4, 2016, in Atlanta. (AP Photo/Chuck Burton)

NFL Games 12/4/16

New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees (9) chases down a bad snap in the first half of an NFL football game against the Detroit Lions in New Orleans, Sunday, Dec. 4, 2016. (AP Photo/Bill Feig) Launch slideshow »

The constant complaints over Thursday Night Football appear to have ceased over the last couple weeks.

That’s what happens when the much-maligned midweek games actually present compelling matchups. After one of Week 13’s most interesting games fell on Thursday, the best pairing of the whole batch of Week 14 games goes down tonight.

The Kansas City Chiefs host the Oakland Raiders as 3.5-point favorites with the AFC West divisional lead on the line. Sports books much prefer this Thursday Night Football edition to last week’s, and not just because of the stakes.

The game should also draw closer to even action, though the Raiders were the early play with several sports books shaving the half-point off the spread. Last week’s game was incredibly lopsided, with the Dallas Cowboys minus-3 drawing 89 percent of the money wagered at William Hill sports books against the Minnesota Vikings.

The Vikings gave sports books a windfall when they scored a late touchdown for a backdoor cover in a 17-15 loss. But most shops would prefer not to be positioned for such a big decision in the first place.

They shouldn’t have to worry about it tonight with the Chiefs and Raiders both giving bettors plenty of reasons to back them as two of the best teams in the NFL.

Check below for Talking Points’ Week 14 picks, listed in three separate confidence categories as always. The record picking every game against the spread on the year is 89-100-3 after going 8-7 last week. Lines are the best currently available on the chosen side.

Plays (15-29-1)

Tennessee Titans pick’em vs. Denver Broncos This is incredible value if Denver quarterback Trevor Siemian is ruled out for another week, and still the play even if he’s active. The way to attack Tennessee’s defense is with a vertical passing game, something Denver doesn’t posses.

Miami Dolphins pick’em vs. Arizona Cardinals It’s typically a sound investment to back teams coming off blowout losses like Miami, which fell 38-6 at Baltimore as 3.5-point underdogs last week. The stigma of the Dolphins having no home-field advantage hasn’t checked out lately as they’ve won straight, covering in all but one of them, at Hard Rock Stadium.

Philadelphia Eagles plus-1.5 vs. Washington Redskins Might as well prolong the run on home teams with a short point spread. Philadelphia has a better point differential than Washington on the year, plus-23 to plus-8, and should be the team laying a point or two here.

Houston Texans plus-6.5 at Indianapolis Colts Line was only 4.5 points before the Colts’ 41-10 blowout victory over the Jets on Monday Night Football. A two-point move means the betting market has overreacted to a win over a listless team.

Leans (34-35-1)

Buffalo Bills plus-2 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Steelers remain in the league’s bottom half in rush defense, giving up 4.2 yards per carry. Bills average an NFL-best 5.4 yards per carry, and should show up with their best effort in a must-win game.

New Orleans Saints plus-3 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Breaks that have gone for Tampa Bay during a four-game winning streak — including dropped interceptions and fumble recoveries — are the same things that have gone against New Orleans in a number of close losses this season. That’s left the value of these teams slightly warped, as the Saints are still somewhat secretly superior.

Jacksonville Jaguars plus-3.5 vs. Minnesota Vikings It can’t get any worse than the Vikings’ offense, which gains 4.7 yards per play to rate last in the NFL. They’re not a team worth laying points with on the road, where they’ve lost both straight-up and against the spread in four straight.

Seattle Seahawks minus-2.5 at Green Bay Packers Series history would indicate Green Bay gives Seattle all it could handle, but it’s preferable to handicap based on what’s happened this season. And this season, the Seahawks are at least a field goal better than the Packers regardless of where the game takes place.

Guesses (40-36-1)

Oakland Raiders plus-3.5 at Kansas City Chiefs Feels like the Chiefs are the better team, but the Raiders are in the better spot. The toll from Kansas City’s five straight physical games decided by less than a touchdown — opponents outgained the Chiefs in all of them, by the way — might catch up.

Chicago Bears plus-8.5 at Detroit Lions Chicago quarterback Matt Barkley has been serviceable enough, throwing for 7 yards per attempt with three touchdowns to two interceptions, in his two starts to keep his team competitive. The Bears beat the Lions worse than the 17-14 final score indicated earlier this year, so this might be a few too many points.

Baltimore Ravens plus-7.5 at New England Patriots Half-point makes Ravens the play, as they have the defense to hang close and limit the Patriots’ offense. Baltimore coach John Harbaugh is 4-1-1 against the spread at Gillette Stadium with no losses of more than a touchdown.

Cleveland Browns plus-6 vs. Cincinnati Bengals Number looks right, but the Browns might mount an all-out effort coming off a bye and wanting to avoid an 0-16 fate. It would be hard to ever feel comfortable laying this many points with the Bengals.

Atlanta Falcons minus-6 at Los Angeles Rams Not as hesitant laying points with Atlanta on a long road trip considering it’s won at Oakland and Denver this season as well as covered at Seattle. Jared Goff has lost against the spread in his first three starts, and hasn’t shown many signs of an imminent turnaround.

Carolina Panthers minus-1 vs. San Diego Chargers Must go with the home team at less than a field goal in a pretty evenly-matched contest. As long as Cam Newton remembers his tie, the Panthers should be able to edge the Chargers.

Dallas Cowboys minus-3 at New York Giants Despite their 8-4 record, the Giants might have had a truly impressive victory since beating the Cowboys in week 1. Need more points to consider backing New York against one of the league’s best teams.

New York Jets plus-3 at San Francisco 49ers This will be one of the least bet-on games of the year, and for good reason with neither the 49ers nor the Jets having anything to play for and already two of the worst teams in the league. But was the Jets’ 41-10 loss to the Colts last week really any worse than the 49ers’ 26-6 no-show at Chicago?

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

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