Las Vegas Sun

April 26, 2024

NBA Finals in Las Vegas: Game 5 betting preview, odds and picks

James-Green

Tony Dejak / AP

Cleveland Cavaliers forward LeBron James, third from right, is held back Friday, June 10, 2016, as he argues with Golden State Warriors forward Draymond Green, left, during the second half of Game 4 of the NBA Finals in Cleveland. Golden State won 108-97.

The shot to LeBron James’ groin wasn’t the only swing Draymond Green has initiated in the last couple days.

The Warriors’ forward also rocked the betting line on game 5 of the NBA Finals, which airs at 6 p.m. tonight on ABC, as a result of his suspension for the cheap shot on James. Golden State sits as a 5.5-point favorite with Green banished from Oracle Arena for accumulating his fourth flagrant foul of the playoffs.

The Warriors posted as 8-point favorites after their upset 108-97 victory on Friday in Cleveland, where Green and James had their altercation in the fourth quarter. The shift in the betting market is a strike against anyone who argues against Green’s importance on the Warriors.

No other player on the roster excluding NBA MVP Stephen Curry could affect the odds as significantly. Green was the favorite to win the NBA Finals MVP award before coming down with the suspension.

He now leaves it all to Curry, who’s listed at minus-260 (risking $2.60 to win $1) in the series MVP proposition wager after a 38-point explosion in game 4. It was the first time all series he went over 27.5 points, his prop total in most sports books.

Golden State could make up for the disadvantage of Green’s absence with other edges. By now, the 0-32 record of teams that have trailed 3-1 in an NBA Finals series well circulated.

But that might not go far enough in illustrating just how dire the game 5 situation can be for a team facing elimination. Not only have the last five Finals teams trailing 3-1 going into game 5 lost; they haven’t covered either.

Current commentators Reggie Miller and Jalen Rose combined for 57 points for the Indiana Pacers against the Los Angeles Lakers in 2000 the last time a team down 3-1 managed to pull out a game 5 victory.

The Warriors were 6- to 6.5-point favorites in the first two home games of the series, so the game 5 line was adjusted for the predicament the Cavaliers found themselves in. Then, Green’s status flung it the other way.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

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