Las Vegas Sun

March 18, 2024

NCAA Tournament by the odds: L.V. picks and perspective of the Midwest Region

Brogdon

ASSOCIATED PRESS

Virginia’s Malcolm Brogdon (15) drives to the basket against Michigan State during the second half of an NCAA tournament college basketball game in the Round of 32 in Charlotte, N.C., Sunday, March 22, 2015. Michigan State won 60-54.

2016 Midwest Region

Which team would you bet to win the Midwest Region?
Michigan State 7-to-5 — 63.1%
Virginia 9-to-5 — 14.2%
Purdue 6-to-1 — 10%
Seton Hall 12-to-1 — 6.5%
Utah 12-to-1 — 4.6%
Iowa State 12-to-1 — 1.5%

This poll is closed, see Full Results »

Note: This is not a scientific poll. The results reflect only the opinions of those who chose to participate.

2016 West Region

Which team would you bet to win the East Region?
Oklahoma 9-to-4 — 43.4%
Oregon 2-to-1 — 24.2%
Texas A&M 5-to-1 — 16.8%
Duke 6-to-1 — 10.8%
Baylor 8-to-1 — 3.2%
Texas 8-to-1 — 1.6%

This poll is closed, see Full Results »

Note: This is not a scientific poll. The results reflect only the opinions of those who chose to participate.

2016 East Region

Which team would you bet to win the East Region?
North Carolina 11-to-10 — 35.8%
Kentucky 4-to-1 — 26.5%
West Virginia 4-to-1 — 17.9%
Xavier 7-to-1 — 13.9%
Indiana 7-to-1 — 5.9%

This poll is closed, see Full Results »

Note: This is not a scientific poll. The results reflect only the opinions of those who chose to participate.

2016 South Region

Which team would you bet to win the South Region?
Kansas Even — 54.4%
Villanova 3-to-1 — 16.0%
Miami 8-to-1 — 10.5%
Maryland 10-to-1 — 7.9%
California 10-to-1 — 5.8%
Arizona 10-to-1 — 5.3%

This poll is closed, see Full Results »

Note: This is not a scientific poll. The results reflect only the opinions of those who chose to participate.

Note: This is the fourth and final part of Talking Points’ NCAA Tournament betting preview. Check out the first three parts here, come back throughout the tournament for more coverage and head to the bottom of the page for picks on all the Midwest Region’s first-round games.

While not quite at the level of Coke vs. Pepsi or Ali vs. Frazier, a new rivalry is bubbling that could partially define this era of the NCAA Tournament.

For the third straight year, Michigan State and Virginia are two of the most popular picks to win their region and reach the Final Four. For the third straight year, it’s the same region to put the two programs squarely on a collision course.

March Madness’ most likely Elite Eight game by the odds is a trilogy bout between the Spartans and Cavaliers to be staged in two weeks at the United Center in Chicago. The future odds at the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook imply a 57 percent chance that one of the two teams will ultimately claim the Midwest Region championship belt — a higher probability share than any other pair in the tournament.

Michigan State and Virginia were able to knock out all the cans and tough guys standing in their way to getting to each other the last two years, so why should this season be any different? The teams seem to be at their peaks as two of the top five choices in odds to win the national championship.

Virginia spent the last several weeks entrenched at 12-to-1 in the future odds, and stayed unwavering even after a loss to North Carolina in the ACC Tournament final and the misfortune of drawing the same region as Michigan State.

Meanwhile, Michigan State had emerged as the NCAA Tournament favorite at most sports books before getting pushed back to second at 5-to-1, behind Kansas at 9-to-2, upon the selection committee depriving it a No. 1 seed.

The Spartans ended the season on a nine-game winning streak, and had covered 12 straight, before falling to the point-spread by a total of 5 points in their final two victories in the Big Ten tournament.

There’s a reason Virginia isn’t manufacturing any type of Pepsi Challenge-like provocation with their executioner from the last two seasons. On the contrary, rumblings were the Hoos and coach Tony Bennett didn’t want to test their team against the Spartans and coach Tom Izzo.

Not with the bitter taste of Michigan State upsetting them 60-54 as a No. 7 seed and 4.5-point underdog still fresh from last year. Virginia covered plus-2.5 the year before, but Michigan State still spoiled the program’s first No. 1 seed in 31 years with a 61-59 victory.

Bennett has rebuilt Virginia basketball with focused recruitment of players who fit his system and even shrewder coaching once they arrive on the Charlottesville, Va., campus. The payoff is evident on this year’s team as junior London Perrantes joins seniors Malcolm Brogdon and Anthony Gill in leading the Cavaliers.

All three logged significant minutes in the first two battles with Michigan State, hardening them for what’s turned into their best season.

But Izzo has perfected a similar approach to Bennett, especially in the NCAA Tournament. He’s made seven Final Fours and 13 Sweet 16s in the last 20 years, both marks the best among active coaches. He’s also 36-24-3 against the spread in the tournament.

The success has bettors holding Izzo in such high regard that the perception is it would take a mishap on the level of New Coke for his team to be seriously threatened before the Final Four.

Virginia is the lone No. 1 seed in this year’s tournament not favored to win its region, because the public’s craving for No. 2 seed Michigan State is too overpowering. Multiple sports books report having taken fists full of cash on the Spartans to win the title all season long.

The casinos are in no serious danger of diving deep into the red if Michigan State pulls off a first title in 16 years only because it’s sat at depressed odds of 15-to-1 or less ever since November. A 79-73 victory over top overall seed Kansas as a 4.5-point underdog at United Center in the second game of the season plunged Michigan State into the group of favorites where it’s never left.

Oddsmakers rate Michigan State and Virginia so closely that the matchup could be a pick’em this year, but public sentiment is doubtful to allow that. There’s a slim chance Michigan State is ever an underdog in the Midwest Region.

The aforementioned Brogdon — averaging 18 points, four rebounds and three assists per game —is the third most valuable player in the nation by kenpom.com’s Player of the Year metric. But Spartans’ swingman Denzel Valentine — 19 points, seven rebounds and seven assists per game — ranks first.

In total, five of the top 10 players by the statistic will play in the Midwest. That’s a lot of power-punchers who won’t be content sitting ringside to watch the heavyweights duke it out.

And as much as the betting market will cling to the two favorites, there are some prospects too talented at moneymaking to ignore. Only one team in the Midwest — No. 7 seed Dayton at 13-17-1 — has a losing against the spread record on the season.

The region is far and away the most profitable collection of teams.

No. 6 seed Seton Hall robbed Michigan State of holding the best power-conference against the spread record by finishing 23-9 including outright upsets over No. 2 seeds Villanova and Xavier to win the Big East tournament championship.

Sophomore swashbuckler Isaiah Whitehead led the Pirates, averaging 18 points and nine assists to rate sixth on the kenpom Player of the Year list.

Seton Hall currently shapes up as only the sixth No. 6 seed in the last decade to come in as a first-round underdog with No. 11 seed Gonzaga a 1-point favorite. Senior Kyle Wiltjer, one of the top 20 scorers in the nation, is hungry to provide the Bulldogs another run after getting one game from the Final Four last season with a 66-52 loss to Duke as 2-point underdogs.

Favored first-round No. 11 seeds over the last 10 years have won and covered in four of five opportunities.

Click to enlarge photo

Utah forward Jakob Poeltl (42) comes down to the court after being fouled during the first half of the team's NCAA college basketball game against Oregon for the championship of the Pac-12 men's tournament Saturday, March 12, 2016, in Las Vegas.

If Seton Hall can manage the upset, then a matchup between the nation’s top point guard, Whitehead, and top center, Utah sophomore Jakob Poeltl, may come together. Poeltl, a 7-foot Austrian, ranks 10th in the Player of the Year and first in field goal percentage among tournament players at .656.

Utah had won nine straight, covering in seven of the games, before getting slaughtered by Oregon in the Pac-12 tournament final.

The Utes’ first-round opponent is No. 14 seed Fresno State, which posted the Mountain West’s best against the spread record at 18-11 behind conference player of the year Marvelle Harris. The senior guard averaged 20 points, five rebounds and four assists per game.

The Bulldogs kept San Diego State out of the NCAA Tournament for the first time in seven years with two upset victories over the Aztecs. Fresno State proving a bad matchup for its conference’s traditional power wasn’t much unlike No. 5 seed Purdue in the Big Ten.

The Boilermakers were the last team to defeat Michigan State — 82-81 as 2-point favorites at home last month — and they covered plus-5 against the Spartans in a 66-62 Big Ten tournament championship loss.

They were 15-to-1 in the future odds after starting the season 13-1 straight-up and 8-3 against the spread. Purdue’s only loss before New Year’s was to the Midwest’s No. 8 seed, offensively explosive Butler, which could get into a first-round shootout with No. 9 seed Texas Tech.

Their over/under of 148 points is only eclipsed by No. 4 seed Iowa State’s opening round matchup with No. 13 seed Iona, which brings the tournament’s highest total of 167.5. The Cyclones are third nationally in offensive efficiency behind Kentucky and Michigan State with senior Georges Niang scoring 20 points per game.

Niang, sixth in the MVP metric, had Iowa State as low as 15-to-1 concurrently to Purdue. But, in a traditional tournament red flag, the Cyclones went 3-8 on the road and at neutral sites once conference play began.

It could be argued the struggles aren’t as alarming since Iowa State went 6-5 against the spread in the games playing in the Big 12, which graded out as the country’s top conference. Still, on Selection Sunday, its odds to win the national championship rose from 50- to 60-to-1.

While Purdue gets a 10 percent chance at the Final Four by the odds after adjusting for the house’s hold, Iowa State joins Utah and Seton Hall with a minuscule 6 percent shot.

The numbers give the indication that the preliminary portion of the Midwest is compromised of glorified squash matches en route to the main event of Virginia vs. Michigan State that everyone wants to see.

Some scores aren’t settled after two meetings.

Pick to win the Midwest Region: Virginia at 9-to-5 Let’s subscribe to the old theory that it’s not truly a rivalry until both sides prove they can defeat each other. Virginia and Michigan State are so much better than the rest of this region that a third meeting is likely. Bennett is too sharp to imagine him losing to the same foe a third straight time, especially not when he quietly might have the better team this season.

Midwest Region Picks Against the Spread (in order of confidence)

Note: We’ll pick every game throughout the tournament, giving analysis on every one in later rounds, even though it’s a losing long-term strategy. Last year, the blog finished 35-30-2.

No. 4 seed Iowa State minus-7.5 vs. No. 13 seed Iona

No. 12 seed Arkansas-Little Rock plus-9 vs. No. 5 seed Purdue

No. 6 seed Seton Hall plus-1 vs. No. 11 seed Gonzaga

No. 9 seed Texas Tech plus-4 vs. No. 8 seed Butler

No. 10 seed Syracuse plus-1 vs. No. 7 seed Dayton

No. 1 seed Virginia minus-23.5 vs. No. 16 seed Hampton

No. 15 seed Middle Tennessee State plus-18 vs. No. 2 seed Michigan State

No. 3 seed Utah minus-8.5 vs. No. 14 seed Fresno State

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

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