Vegas pick’em: NFL Week 11 winners against the spread

By Case Keefer (contact)

Thursday, Nov. 17, 2016 | 2 a.m.

For sports bettors this season, the Dallas Cowboys are like a commercial catchphrase — the gift that keeps on giving.

Not only have the Cowboys taken care of anyone who’s backed them on a game by game basis with eight straight covers, but they’re also poised to reward those who were there from the preseason. Dallas could become the first team to beat its over/under season win total — though Tennessee also has a chance — Sunday when it hosts Baltimore.

Dallas’ number dipped to 8.5 when Tony Romo suffered an injury in the preseason, and now it stands with an 8-1 straight-up record going into a game where the betting line implies a 73 percent chance of a victory.

Those who wagered on the Cowboys to win the Super Bowl back when win totals were still posted must feel sharp too. Dallas was 25-to-1 back then, but now is done to 7-to-1.

New England is the only team offered at lower odds, currently sitting at plus-140 (risking $1 to win $1.40). An MVP race is also shaping up between the Patriots and Cowboys.

At offshore sports books, Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliot is a plus-425 second choice to win the award behind Patriots quarterback Tom Brady, who’s plus-240. Dallas is the only team with two players in the top five, as quarterback Dak Prescott is 20-to-1.

It’s been a banner year for the Cowboys, making it hard to believe they were the least profitable team in the league to bet on last season.

Perhaps Talking Points should just pick the Cowboys every week. Anything could help the blog, which had another losing record at 6-8 against the spread picking every game last week to bring the season total to 64-82-1.

Check below for Week 11 picks, separated as always into three different confidence categories with lines being the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen side.

Plays (12-24-1)

Chicago Bears plus-7.5 at New York Giants Bears are the biggest laugh of the league between Alshon Jeffery’s performance enhancing drug suspension and last week’s 36-10 beating at Tampa Bay as 2-point favorites. But Jeffery hadn’t been impactful this season anyway, and they’re not always going to give away four turnovers. The Giants haven’t shown enough to lay this many points.

Green Bay Packers plus-3 at Washington Redskins There will never be a better buy-low spot on the Packers. Before its recent three-game losing streak, Green Bay was a 5-point favorite against Washington in game of the year lines.

Los Angeles Rams plus-1.5 vs. Miami Dolphins The Rams’ defense continues to play at a high level, allowing only 5.1 yards per play to rank sixth in the NFL. They’re capable of thwarting the thriving Miami offensive attack behind running back Jay Ajayi, and can’t get any worse offensively with Jared Goff subbing in for Case Keenum.

Leans (25-28)

Indianapolis Colts minus-3 vs. Tennessee Titans Trying not to overreact to the Titans’ best performance of the season, as their 47-25 blowout over the Packers as 3-point underdogs last week shaved a key half-point off this line. The Colts handled the Titans somewhat easily in a 34-26 Week 7 victory, which was their 10th straight win in the series.

Carolina Panthers minus-3.5 vs. New Orleans Saints The line opened at the same price in Week 6 when New Orleans beat Carolina by a game-winning field goal in the final seconds at home. The Saints have proven to be more evenly-matched than suspected then, but the Panthers still deserve a couple points in their favor for home field advantage.

Philadelphia Eagles plus-6.5 at Seattle Seahawks Having a tough time swallowing the, “Seattle’s offense is back” narrative considering its breakthrough came against a New England defense that’s struggled immensely the last few weeks. Philadelphia will provide significantly more resistance.

Jacksonville Jaguars plus-6.5 at Detroit Lions The Lions’ five wins this season have come by a total of 17 points, a big reason why they still have a -1 point differential despite leading the NFC North and stand out as a bet-against. Even the Jaguars’ offense should get on track against a mediocre Lions defense.

Guesses (27-30)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers plus-7.5 at Kansas City Chiefs The Chiefs have only given this many points on one other occasion this year — a 19-14 win over the Jaguars. The Buccaneers are better than the Jaguars — granted, Chiefs quarterback Alex Smith missed that game — and this is so many points that, worst-case scenario, the Buccaneers will be alive for a backdoor cover.

Minnesota Vikings pick’em vs. Arizona Cardinals The Vikings have disappointed over the last four weeks, but the Cardinals have disappointed the entire season. As a general rule of thumb, the home team is preferable in a pick’em when there’s no stronger angle to back.

Pittsburgh Steelers minus-8 at Cleveland Browns Cleveland is giving up an NFL-worst 8 yards per passing attempt. The Browns’ secondary is so flammable for Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown that it’s not even worth entertaining going against an overvalued Steelers team.

Baltimore Ravens plus-7.5 at Dallas Cowboys During the Cowboy’s eight-game winning and covering streak, they’ve played only two teams with winning records. In those games combined, they won by a total of 10 points, so more than willing to grab the points against one of their best opponents yet.

Oakland Raiders minus-5 vs. Houston Texans Still don’t believe in the Raiders, but there will be better opportunities to sell on them than against the most inept offense in the NFL. Five points isn’t near big enough to account for the discrepancy between Raiders quarterback Derek Carr and Texans quarterback Brock Osweiler.

San Francisco 49ers plus-13.5 vs. New England Patriots Two touchdowns is almost too many points to lay under any scenario in the NFL. Two touchdowns with a road team traveling three time zones is either a take or a pass every time.

Buffalo Bills plus-3 at Cincinnati Bengals Scheduling spot seems to favor the Bills in a contest where the number looks accurate. The Bills are coming off a bye, while the Bengals work on a short week off a 21-20 loss to the Giants on Monday Night Football.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.