College football by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of week 13

Football fans watch games during NFL opening day at the Red Rock Resort’s race and sportsbook Sunday, Sept. 13, 2015.

Friday, Nov. 25, 2016 | 2 a.m.

It’s not only Black Friday in stores across the valley.

There are just as many purchases being made in Las Vegas sports books. The final full weekend of the college football regular season is also the most bet-on weekend of the college football regular season.

The two-day rush extending through Saturday of rivalry matchups and games with championship implications tantalize bettors in a way that no other slate will until New Year’s weekend when the College Football semifinals lead into the other major bowl games.

The hardest part about washing down the Thanksgiving turkey with gambling instead of shopping is finding deals. That’s where Talking Points hopes to help.

Consider this week’s preview a sports betting version of a coupon catalogue. The blog is out to find value and boost its 92-88-5 against the spread record on the year after last week’s 9-8 showing.

Check below for a betting preview of the 10 biggest games of the weekend along with extra picks at the end. Picks are labeled with three separate confidence categories, and lines are the best currently available on the chosen side.

AP Photo/Young Kwak

Washington minus-6.5 at Washington State, over/under: 65; 12:30 p.m. Friday on Fox

Increased exposure can often lead to diminished value in the betting market.

That appears to be what’s occurred with Washington and Washington State, two programs that had been profitable under coaches Chris Petersen and Mike Leach, respectively, going into the year. That’s taken a turn ever since national attention dialed up midway through the season when it became clear that both in-state rivals fielded one of their best teams in decades.

Washington has failed to cover in four of its last five games. Likewise, Washington State is 2-4 against the spread over the second half of the year.

It hasn’t affected the stakes of the Apple Cup, which are at their highest since 1981 when the game ended up being the de facto Pac-10 championship with Washington coming out on top. Thirty-five years later, the game is only for the Pac-12 North title but Washington could still parlay that into a College Football Playoff berth.

The over/under could close the highest in series history — it was 66 three years ago ahead of Washington’s 27-17 win as 17.5-point favorites — because of the two passing offenses. Washington State junior Luke Falk is third in the nation with 3,935 passing yards while Washington sophomore Jake Browning ranks 20th with one more touchdown and two more yards per attempt on average.

Guess: Washington State plus-6.5
AP Photo/Nati Harnik

Nebraska plus-3 at Iowa, over/under: 42; 12:30 p.m. Friday on ABC

Everything seems to have changed since these newfangled, forced rivals faced off at the same time on the same day a year ago. Everything except for the betting line.

Iowa also closed as a 3-point favorite before last year’s season-ending tilt in Lincoln, Neb., a contest it won 28-20 to advance to the Big Ten championship game. There are no immediate championship implications in The Heroes Game this year, as each team would need Minnesota to upset Wisconsin on Saturday to have any chance of reaching Indianapolis next week.

It’s tough to say which side the betting market preferred, because most gamblers haven’t gotten the chance to wager on this game. Uncertainty on Nebraska’s quarterback situation has kept the line off of betting boards all week.

Starter Tommy Armstrong says he will return, though the coaching staff hasn’t confirmed, after backup Ryker Fyfe broke his wrist while filling in for a 28-7 win over Maryland as 13.5-point favorites last week. Iowa senior quarterback C.J. Beathard is healthy, though it’s uncertain if that matters based on the way the Hawkeyes have played lately.

Beathard has regressed since his junior campaign when he led Iowa to an undefeated season, leading it to run even more than usual this year. The Hawkeyes run on 59 percent of their plays and rely heavily on senior LeShun Daniels and junior Akrum Wadley.

Nebraska gives up a pedestrian 4.1 yards per rushing attempt, which could enable Iowa to make the result another factor that mirrors back to last year.

Guess: Iowa minus-3
AP Photo/Carlos Osorio

Toledo plus-9.5 at Western Michigan, over/under: 69; 2 p.m. Friday on ESPN2

Consider it peak MACtion.

No one expected a conference that inspired the aforementioned nickname from gamblers for its frequent midweek betting options to stage a game this relevant on the final full week of the regular season. Western Michigan coach P.J. Fleck has grown accustomed to smashing expectations.

Fleck, who’s 29-20 against the spread as Western Michigan’s coach, has the only undefeated team in the country outside of Alabama. The Broncos’ over/under win total was only 8.5 coming into the season, and now they’re in position to reach a New Year’s Six bowl game as the top-rated Group of Five conference team.

Fleck is reaping the rewards of attracting four straight highly touted recruiting classes to Kalamazoo, Mich. Senior quarterback Zach Terrell sits third in the nation in passer rating, having thrown 40 touchdowns to one interception, and junior running back Jarvion Franklin is 14th nationally with 1,228 rushing yards.

Senior wide receiver Corey Davis should set the NCAA record for career receiving yards on Saturday.

The less celebrated aspect of this game is that Toledo is just as strong. Coach Jason Candle took over for Matt Campbell, who went to Iowa State, without any dropoff in sight.

The Rockets’ two losses have come by a total of seven points, at BYU as 3-point underdogs and against Ohio as 15-point favorites. Senior quarterback Logan Woodside has 40 touchdown passes, the most in the nation.

Play: Toledo plus-9.5
AP Photo/Paul Vernon

Michigan plus-6.5 at Ohio State, over/under: 45.5; 9 a.m. Saturday on ABC

Despite the deluge of blowouts, pair of upset losses and rash of injuries these teams have combined to endure throughout the season, the betting line on the biggest game of the year ends right where it started.

The Westgate Las Vegas Superbook opened Ohio State as a 6.5-point favorite over Michigan in the summer, and that’s exactly where it stands. The number slightly jostled around during the year, getting as low as minus-3.5 after Penn State upset Ohio State 24-21 as 17.5-point underdogs.

But Michigan’s letdown at Iowa, losing 14-13 as 24-point favorites, a month later shot the line right back up to 6.5. It’s unlikely to shift much before kickoff because action has reportedly been fairly balanced.

Ohio State holds a slight edge on the ticket count, which is no surprise given its more explosive offense. The Buckeyes have the second most efficient running game in the nation by Football Outsiders’ S&P metric. Junior quarterback J.T. Barrett, junior running back Curtis Samuel and freshman running back Mike Weber have combined to rack up 23 touchdowns and 6 yards per carry.

Michigan evens out the minor offensive disadvantage with a similiarly-sized defensive advantage. The Wolverines are second in the nation in giving up only 3.9 yards per play behind an all-time linebacking corps of sophomore Jabrill Peppers, senior Ben Gedeon and junior Mike McCray.

Neither Michigan nor Ohio State has been profitable in Big Ten play, as each has gone 3-5 against the spread.

Lean: Michigan plus-6.5
AP Photo/Butch Dill

Auburn plus-17 at Alabama, over/under: 47; 12:30 p.m. Saturday on CBS

College football’s week 13 nearly boasted games of the year in the sport’s two biggest rivalries.

Then Auburn had to go and lose to Georgia 13-7 as 10-point favorites two weeks ago. The upset zapped the Iron Bowl of much its national intrigue, as the annual showdown could have otherwise been a play-in to the SEC Championship Game with both teams alive in the College Football Playoff conversation.

The line also shot up four points, from as low as Alabama minus-13.5 to as high as minus-17.5. It all falls on the shoulder of Auburn sophomore quarterback Sean White and leg of Auburn sophomore running back Kamryn Pettway.

Those two broke the Tigers out of offensive doldrums midway through the year, but were injured going into the game against the Bulldogs. Pettway didn’t play, and White was ineffective in failing to lead Auburn to a single first down in the second half.

Pettway is back to face Alabama, but there’s no official word on White. It might be best for his long-term health to sit out because Alabama has the best defense in the country by any measure.

The Crimson Tide are especially tenacious on the defensive front where senior edge rushers Jonathan Allen and Tim Williams have combined for 15 sacks and might both go in the top five of the 2017 NFL Draft.

Guess: Alabama minus-17
AP Photo/Mel Evans

Michigan State plus-12.5 at Penn State, over/under: 54.5; 12:30 p.m. on ESPN

Like its Michigan at Ohio State counterpart earlier in the day, this significant game in deciding the Big Ten East champion has witnessed no line movement from the start of the year.

Only difference is, that’s because this wasn’t one of the hundreds of contests released as a game of the year in casinos across Las Vegas. And it wasn’t because of Michigan State, which had four games posted by the Golden Nugget.

It was because no one expected much out of Penn State, which had no games available for betting in the summer at Golden Nugget. The Nittany Lions have turned into more of a force than anyone ever expected, and now only needs a Ohio State win combined with their own victory to reach the Big Ten Championship.

Unlike the Buckeyes and Wolverines, the Nittany Lions have been dynamite to bet. They’re 6-1-1 against the spread in conference play having not dropped a cover since their Big Ten opener, a 49-10 pounding by Michigan as 15.5-point favorites.

Michigan State is on its own spread run, having beaten the number in two in a row and three of its last four. Despite the Spartans’ dreadful 3-8 straight-up, 4-7 against the spread campaign, they’ve yet to fail to cover as an underdog.

That includes losing only 17-16 to Ohio State last week as 20.5-point underdog, and hanging with Michigan in a 32-23 loss as 24.5-point underdogs.

Play: Penn State minus-12.5
AP Photo/Michael Conroy

Minnesota plus-14.5 at Wisconsin, over/under: 44; 12:30 p.m. Saturday on Big Ten Network

The betting market must feel like it’s already milked its cash cow to emptiness.

Colorado (10-1 against the spread) is the only major conference team that’s covered more consistently than Wisconsin (9-2) this season, but the Badgers aren’t bagging the support that record may indicate in their final regular season game of the year. Early in the week, there was actually more money on Minnesota to drive down the line from opening at minus-15.

Wisconsin only needs to win to clinch its spot in the Big Ten Championship Game, which shouldn’t be a problem based on results against other West division opposition. Nebraska took Wisconsin to overtime in a 23-17 loss as a 9-point underdog, but the Badgers have otherwise covered and won in every game.

The Badgers’ offense has come alive since the escape against Nebraska with senior running back Corey Clement rushing for at least 100 yards in all three games. Fellow senior Dare Ogunbowale has been even more efficient, averaging 6 yards per carry.

Minnesota is 13th in the nation in giving up only 3.1 yards per rushing attempt with a defense led by junior linebacker Jonathan Celestin.

The Golden Gophers could notch their best regular season in 13 years with an upset victory, and should be fully motivated in their own right as coach Tracy Claeys fights for an extension.

Lean: Minnesota plus-14.5
AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill

Utah plus-10 at Colorado, over/under: 53.5; 4:30 p.m. Saturday on Fox

Oregon has fallen to the point that losing to it results in a scarlet letter effect.

It at least feels like a “L” has been attached to Utah on betting boards across Las Vegas this week after its 30-28 loss to Oregon as 11-point favorites last week. No one wants to bet on the Utes, who had covered three in a row and four of five before the upset loss.

Or maybe the betting public has finally come around on Colorado, which has the best against the spread record in the nation at 10-1. The Buffaloes came through for the sports books last week, covering a 6-point spread in a 38-24 victory over Washington State behind more than 450 total yards and three touchdowns from senior quarterback Sefo Liufau.

Junior running back Phillip Lindsay added 144 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 31 carries.

The running game has been the focus of Utah’s offense too. Senior running back Joe Williams has rushed for more than 1,000 yards despite missing half of the season after retiring.

Colorado has the slightly better rush defense, having limited opponents to 3.9 yards per rush attempt as opposed to Utah’s average of 4.2 yards against.

Guess: Colorado minus-10
South Carolina plus-24 at Clemson, over/under: 50; 4:30 p.m. Saturday on ESPN

It’s hard to believe that not long ago South Carolina was the hurdle that Clemson coach Dabo Swinney couldn’t clear.

Swinney dropped his first five meetings with the Tigers’ in-state rival both straight-up and against the spread. Then Deshaun Watson happened.

The now-junior quarterback has accounted for nearly 700 yards to lead to wins over the Gamecocks in each of the last two years. South Carolina hopes heavily recruited freshman quarterback Jake Bentley has a similar effect in his introduction to the series.

The Gamecocks have turned around their season since burning Bentley’s redshirt, going 4-1 straight-up and against the spread in their last five to reach bowl eligibility. That means they exceeded their preseason expectations, as South Carolina’s over/under win total was only 4.5.

Clemson’s was 10.5, meaning it needs a win over South Carolina to cash for over bettors. The Tigers haven’t taken care of their backers down the stretch, failing to cover in four of their last five including a 43-42 outright loss to Pittsburgh as 21.5-point favorites two weeks ago.

Guess: Clemson minus-24
AP Photo/Gerald Herbert

Florida State plus-7.5 at Florida, over/under: 45; 5 p.m. Saturday on ABC

The respective advantages in this game almost couldn’t be starker.

Florida State has the far better offense, gaining 6.3 yards per play to Florida’s 5.3 yards per play. Florida has the far better defense, giving up 4.3 yards per play to Florida State’s 5.4 yards per play.

The betting public prefers offense, so it’s no surprise this point spread went up after opening as low as minus-6.5. The Seminoles do have a caliber of offensive weapons that the Gators haven’t quite seen this season.

Junior running back Dalvin Cook has run for 17 touchdowns and more than 6 yards per carry. Freshman quarterback Deondre Francois has thrown for 17 touchdowns and nearly 9 yards per pass attempt.

But protection has been a recurring problem for the Seminoles, which is something the Gators could exploit. Junior defensive tackle Caleb Brantley has controlled the middle for Florida all season, while freshman edge rusher Jabari Zuniga has applied pressure.

The Gators picked up their biggest win last week, edging LSU 16-10 courtesy of a goal line stand as 14-point underdogs, to secure their place in the SEC Championship Game in Atlanta. The in-state rivalry will be the sole focus for Florida State, which could put it at an advantage much like it was in a 27-2 obliteration as 2.5-point favorites last year.

Lean: Florida plus-7.5
Extra points

Notre Dame plus-18 at USC Love for USC and love lost for Notre Dame have conspired to make a point spread that might be more than a touchdown too high. It’s been a bad year for the Irish, but they haven’t lost a game by more than touchdown yet.

Ole Miss minus-7.5 vs. Mississippi State Getting a discount on the Rebels after they no-showed in a 38-17 loss at Vanderbilt as 10-point favorites. They could lay more against a Bulldogs team that’s given up 109 points the last two weeks.

SMU plus-7.5 at Navy The Midshipmen have already locked up the American Athletic Conference west division, so their main focus will be getting through this game healthy. They also have a pass defense that rates No. 122 in the nation by S&P, and the Mustangs prefer an aerial attack.

Oregon State plus-3 vs. Oregon The coaching advantage in Oregon State’s favor with Gary Andersen against Oregon’s Mark Helfrich is already enough to make this a take. It’s not as if he’s at a roster disadvantage either because the Beavers haven’t played any worse than the Ducks this season.

South Alabama plus-5.5 at Idaho Wrong team might be favored, as Jaguars have a far better defense in giving up 5.5 yards per play to Vandals’ 6.1 yards per play. Idaho has already reached its goal of bowl eligibility, something South Alabama is still striving towards.